In the future, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be appreciating or depreciating

The rise and fall of the exchange rate is affected by a combination of factors, such as: balance of payments, monetary policy, political situation, etc., you can judge according to the general trend of the market.

Analysts said that due to the impact of China's economic data in 2014, the European version of quantitative easing and the strengthening of the US dollar, the combined pressure on the depreciation of the renminbi has increased, and this trend may be maintained for a while. However, China's economic growth potential is still large, and the RMB exchange rate is not expected to decline significantly in 2015, and exporters still need to focus on accelerating the cultivation of new competitive advantages.

According to data released by the People's Bank of China, on January 23, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar directly depreciated sharply to a stage. On January 26, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was reported to the lowest level on the same day, with a single-day fluctuation range of nearly 2%, close to the maximum fluctuation range of 2%, and a new low in nearly 8 months.

Market analysts said that the main reason for the depreciation of the renminbi is the introduction of the European version of quantitative easing, which has increased the pressure on cross-border capital outflows from China. On the afternoon of January 22, ECB President Mario Draghi announced the launch of the European version of quantitative easing, which has been implemented since March, but the domino effect caused by it has already appeared. The euro fell below the dollar for the first time since 2003.

The euro fell below for the first time since June 2001 on January 26 after a series of ** periods. In fact, since the 2014 economic data came out, the market's expectations for the depreciation of the renminbi have been increasing. After the release of 2014 GDP and CPI and foreign trade growth data, the market's expectations of China's economic slowdown and increased deflation risk have increased, which has promoted the bearish power of the yuan.

In addition, affected by the European version of quantitative easing and interest rate cuts by central banks around the world, the overall strengthening of the US dollar and the overall depreciation of the RMB may continue for a period of time.

As China gradually becomes a net exporter of capital and the capital account reform accelerates, capital outflows will increase. The U.S. dollar has shifted from low interest rates during the QE period to expected interest rate hikes, and the debt repayment pressure of Chinese companies, which were once active in the dollar debt market, will increase, which will also lead to capital flows to the United States.

However, there are also factors driving the appreciation of the renminbi. Although China's economic growth has turned into a medium and low speed, it is still leading the world in scale and speed, and the scale of RMB assets is huge, and with the implementation of measures and investment projects to promote reform and structural adjustment, China's economy will slowly bottom out and rebound, and the number of people who are optimistic about the RMB will increase.

There is no doubt that the large amount of liquidity provided by the European version of quantitative easing will have a spillover effect, and the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate will bring capital back to the United States, increasing the uncertainty of future cross-border capital flows around the world. The first low and then the high, the second half of the year showed an overall appreciation trend. In 2015, the renminbi will not have much depreciation pressure against the US dollar as a whole, and will even passively appreciate against non-US dollar currencies.

It will depreciate, because the United States is now facing a lot of problems, and there is also an economic position, but it will face a lot of difficulties.

It's going to depreciate. The development of the United States is not very good, the economy is also declining, and the dollar will depreciate.

Possibly, because their currency has a lot to do with their economy, their economic development has been very hindered, and it is likely to depreciate.

I think the dollar will depreciate at the moment, because the epidemic in the United States is very serious.

Probably, because their development is not particularly good, and their economy has a lot of problems, and it may depreciate.

I think the dollar will depreciate right now, because the United States is very chaotic right now.

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar hit a two-year low, what is the reason for the exchange rate, first of all, because China is facing the impact of inflation, and secondly, the penetration rate of the US dollar in the market is very high, many countries use the US dollar as the settlement currency, and then some US policies have made many allies begin to choose to abandon the use of RMB as the settlement currency, and the other is that oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the US dollar is also increasing. It is necessary to explain and analyze the reasons why the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit a two-year low from the following four aspects, resulting in the exchange rate.

First, because China is facing the impact of inflation

First of all, oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the US dollar is also increasing, and for China, the problem of inflation is also deep in all aspects, so the purchasing power of the domestic RMB is declining, which is also an inevitable trend.

Second, the penetration rate of the US dollar in the market is very high, and many countries use the US dollar as the settlement currency

The second is that oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the dollar is also improving, and the penetration rate of the dollar in the market is still very high, which is reflected in many aspects, mainly because many commercial fields have used the corresponding dollar as the settlement currency.

Third, some U.S. policies have caused many allies to choose to abandon the use of the renminbi as a settlement currency

In addition, some U.S. policies have caused many allies to choose to abandon the use of the renminbi as a settlement currency, and for the U.S., some policies can influence some decisions of U.S. allies, which has played a lot of disadvantageous roles.

Fourth, oil resources are becoming more important, so the purchasing power of the dollar is also increasing

In addition, oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the dollar is also increasing, and the international situation is still relatively rigorous for oil, so it indirectly enhances the purchasing power of the United States.

Precautions that should be done in China:

The construction of multiple channels should be strengthened.

Behind the continuous depreciation of the renminbi is the strengthening of the dollar index. The main reason for the strength of the US dollar this round is the aggressive interest rate hike strategy that the Federal Reserve must adopt to fight inflation.

First, the Fed's Powell's "hawkish voice" greatly exceeded expectations, and the United States will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future, and the expectation of interest rate hikes will rise sharply; Second, China's domestic interest rate cuts. This "contrast" of ups and downs and the "dislocation" of policies have led to a rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the short term.

The first is that the United States will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future, and the expectation of interest rate hikes will rise sharply, that is, the domestic exchange rate will be reduced.