Is the autonomous driving industry overvalued?

It looks like I'm a bit of a bubble and the valuation is too high, but it's reasonable from the logic inside. Perhaps from a longitudinal point of view, China is still very weak in many aspects, and many conditions are not available, and there is moisture. But some big strategists think horizontally along the timeline, and they will take these changing factors into account, and at this time you will see a lot of logic appear.

For autonomous driving, no company can guarantee to account for more than 50% of the share, so this is the opportunity. Why are many companies now valuing so high? Because once its technology is ahead to a certain extent, it may account for more than 50% or even 70% of the share, so it seems that the valuation is really not high.

The core is whether you have a truly long-term strategic leadership position and competitiveness! ‍‍

In any field, if it is only a technical problem, sooner or later it will be broken through, it is only a matter of time before it is a matter of time. Especially in technology-intensive fields such as autonomous driving, the biggest limitation at present is still technology, and other similar policy, ethical, safety, privacy and other restrictions will be slowly resolved after the technical restrictions are broken. ‍‍

We often say that technology comes first, and policies often lag behind. Technology first, more because technology has enough leading power, this power comes from the power of innovation, the pressure of competitors, and the attraction of market demand and other forces. Although autonomous driving is still only on a small scale and commercialized.

However, it is not at all able to stop the pace of popularization. ‍‍

When all forces are gathered, they are only for a common goal - the landing and popularization of autonomous driving. Even if it is still in its infancy, it is believed that when autonomous driving is upgraded to the highest level 5, we can call it truly "driverless". ‍

Now no company can stand up and say that what they produce is the standard in the future. The automobile market is especially involved in safety, and there is a relatively big feature that there is a certain monopoly, such as making wire control systems, more than 95% of which are used by Bosch, which basically monopolizes this market. Other companies may have them, but first of all, they may not be as good as Bosch, and secondly, if they do it well, OEMs may not dare to use it. ‍‍

I don't think so, because unmanned driving will eventually enter every household with the continuous advancement of technology.

Not only that, but domestic Tencent, Alibaba, Huawei, JD.com, Meituan, and Didi. Almost all domestic giants have participated in the research and development and commercialization of autonomous driving. Not to mention the large number of startups in the field of autonomous driving, as well as the participation and promotion of car manufacturers in the field of autonomous driving. ‍‍

From an investment point of view, the first is the market, the future is a big market, you want to produce so many cars every year, each car is equipped with a lidar, or a camera, a car-grade chip, how big will this market be? ‍‍

There is a market for assisted driving, and unmanned driving can only be applied in special fields (such as mines) at present, and urban and high-speed are still forgotten, and the commercial value is limited.

The prospect of the driverless automobile industry is better, according to the "2016-2021 China Driverless Vehicle Industry Development Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the development of the driverless industry has exceeded market expectations.

With the accelerated popularization of 5G technology, the rapid promotion of Internet giants, and the maturity of intelligent automotive technology, the pace of autonomous vehicle industry will continue to accelerate and is expected to achieve commercialization in 2020.

In addition, the UK** estimates that the global market for autonomous driving technology is around £900 billion (about trillion dollars).From the perspective of the entire industry chain, the driver assistance system can use sensors, algorithms and execution layers to achieve assisted driving, greatly improve the safety and comfort of driving, and is the basis for realizing unmanned driving, and the future market space is huge.

Advanced driver assistance is maturing, and the global market penetration rate is expected to exceed 25% in 2019.

Segments such as advanced driver assistance systems are expected to be the first to benefit.

The agency predicts that by 2020, the market size of China's driving assistance systems will be 70 billion to 80 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 60%.

It may indicate that networked intelligent vehicles, including driverless cars, are gradually entering the road of rapid development, including potential, future pattern, etc., which are worthy of consideration by the automotive industry and the Internet industry.

Driverless cars are certainly the general trend of the future, in high-speed rail and subway and other rail transit, has basically realized the operation of duty, that is, basically by the computer to complete the driving, but the driver has the highest level of intervention, the driver only plays the role of duty.

A large part of today's traffic accidents are caused by drivers' personal reasons, such as fatigue and overconfidence. If the computer takes over the operation, all the driving processes have standards to follow, and there is no need to worry about fatigue and other reasons.

With traffic data, the optimal solution of path planning can also be realized, and the advent of the unmanned driving era is also the beginning of human beings getting rid of traffic jams.

Technical challenges faced.

The most important thing is the road condition recognition technology, that is, how to close the road conditions from the image to the computer ** for system processing.

The second is the problem of processing capacity, when the recognition accuracy is improved to a certain level, the processing data for road conditions will increase exponentially. A car will have to be used for at least a year, so how can you cope with the increasing amount of data processing at a later stage?

There is also the question of reliability, how to ensure that the unmanned system does not crash? Safe to use in extreme situations?

Bright hopes for the future of driverless cars.

Da Pie believes that there will be two major development directions for driverless cars in the future:

1. Networked processing. Referring to the concept of Google Chrome computers, the hardware configuration is very low, and all the processing work is handed over to the cloud server. It's like a desktop computer 10 years ago is definitely not stuck now, but the monitor from 10 years ago is still the same.

In the future, driverless cars can extremely lightweight local car loss guessing hardware, and transmit data to the cloud through high-speed networks for processing and return. This way, you can always have the fastest processing speed, and you don't have to worry about the rapid growth of data volume. However, it must be based on the rapid development of mobile networks, which can achieve ultra-high-speed mobile Internet access.

2. The manual mode will still be retained, and it will be handed over to manual driving in case of emergency.

A driverless car is a kind of intelligent car, which can also be called a wheeled mobile robot, which mainly relies on the intelligent driving instrument based on the computer system in the car to achieve unmanned driving.

The global autonomous driving industry has accelerated significantly. In 2014, 15, 16, 7, 4, 9 companies were approved for driverless road testing in California, and since 2017, there have been as many as 25

companies have been licensed, more than the last three years combined, accounting for more than half of the total, showing explosive growth. This shows that the process of unmanned driving industry is accelerating significantly, and major companies around the world are accelerating the research of unmanned vehicles, and the competition in the field of unmanned driving is gradually becoming white-hot.

The unmanned driving industry has a broad market space and a market size of 100 billion yuan in the future.

According to the relevant data of the "Analysis Report on the Development Prospects of China's Driverless Vehicle Industry" and Investment Strategic Planning released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, driverless cars can give birth to a huge market of 200 billion to trillion US dollars by 2025. Global driverless car sales will reach 11.8 million units by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035, when China will account for 24% of the global market.

Driverless cars are not currently on the market.

Now it is only in the specified road section of the experiment, complex road sections and mountain roads and other special road sections have to go through several years of testing, the test is no problem, the relevant laws have to be adjusted, so the market of driverless cars should still have a long way to go. <>

A driverless car is a type of smart car that relies on sensors on the outside of the smart car and computer systems inside it to achieve autonomous driving. Driverless cars are the representative products of the current artificial intelligence, a new type of car that integrates intelligent technology, such as the Internet, big data, etc., and the car is mainly set up in the car itself by the artificial intelligence system of Voltan to carry the detection and driving of the car.

Since the 70s of the 20th century, developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany have begun to conduct research on driverless cars, and breakthroughs have been made in both feasibility and practicality. China began to conduct research on driverless cars in the 80s of the 20th century, and the National University of Defense Technology successfully developed China's first driverless car in the real sense in 1992.

In the future, driverless cars can transmit data to each other through the Internet of Vehicles, and will eventually replace human driving, due to the high requirements of unmanned driving for vehicle efficiency, convenience and reliability, the need for people, vehicles and road height coordination. The development of unmanned driving needs to create a landing ecology, and throughout the current development process of the unmanned driving ecosystem, there are still many places to be improved, such as unmanned driving has made some innovations in technology.

Unmanned driving has not yet been put on the market, and the liquid is only tested on specified road sections. Complex road sections, mountain roads and other special road sections need to be tested for several years, and the relevant laws have to be adjusted if the test is not a problem, so there should be a long way to go for driverless cars to be listed.

A driverless car is a kind of smart car, which relies on sensors on the outside of the smart car and a computer system inside the smart car to achieve autonomous driving. Driverless cars are the representative products of artificial intelligence, and they are a new type of cars that integrate intelligent technologies such as the Internet and big data. The car is primarily perceived and driven by an artificial intelligence system set up in the car itself.

Since the 70s of the 20th century, developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany have begun to study driverless cars, and breakthroughs have been made in both feasibility and practicality. China began to study driverless cars in the 80s of the 20th century, and the National University of Defense Technology successfully developed China's first real driverless car in 1992.

In the future, driverless cars will eventually replace human driving by transmitting data to each other through the Internet of Vehicles. Because driverless cars have high requirements for the efficiency, convenience and reliability of vehicles, they require the cooperation of people, vehicles and roads. The development of unmanned driving requires the construction of a landing ecology.

Throughout the development process of the driverless driving ecosystem, there are still many things that need to be improved, such as some technological innovations.

Millions of car purchase subsidies.