What are the basic conditions for non affirmative decision making?

What are the basic conditions for non-affirmative decision-making?According to the degree of affirmation of the decision-making conditions, decision-making can be divided into deterministic decision-making, risk-based decision-making, and uncertain decision-making.

1. Deterministic decision-making is also known as standard decision-making or structured decision-making. It refers to a type of problem in which the outcome of the decision-making process is completely determined by the actions taken by the decision-maker, which can be solved by methods such as optimization and dynamic programming.

2. Risk-based decision-making refers to the fact that the decision-maker is relatively clear about the natural state and objective conditions of the decision-making object, and has a relatively clear decision-making goal, but must take a certain risk to achieve the decision-making goal.

3. The conditions and states of uncertain decision-making are similar to risk-based decision-making, except that the probability of which outcome of various schemes will occur in the future cannot be high, so the result is uncertain.

The meaning and difference between deterministic decision-making and risk-based decision-making and non-determinism are as follows.

Deterministic Decision and Risk Decision and Non-Deterministic Meaning:

Determination of decision-making with royalty, also known as standard decision-making or structured decision-making. It refers to a type of problem in which the outcome of the decision-making process is completely determined by the actions taken by the decision-maker, and it can be optimized and dynamically programmed.

and other methods to solve it.

Risk-based decision-makingRisk-based decision-making: It refers to the decision-maker's relatively clear understanding of the natural state and objective conditions of the decision-making object, and also has a relatively clear decision-making goal, but must take a certain risk to achieve the decision-making goal.

Non-deterministic decision-making: In actual decision-making, there are some objective conditions that are not controlled by the decision-maker, and this kind of problem is called non-deterministic decision-making.

The difference between deterministic decision-making and risk-based decision-making and non-deterministic:

The fundamental difference is the stability of environmental conditions.

Deterministic decision-making: A decision that takes place under stable (controllable) conditions. Choose the best one among the many options available.

Risky decision-making: refers to the fact that the implementation results of a program will encounter a variety of different situations, so that there will be different results. The optimal decision can be made by calculating or estimating the probability of various possible scenarios.

Uncertain decision-making: It is a decision made under uncertain conditions, which refers to the implementation of a plan with different results under different circumstances, and the probability of its occurrence cannot be predicted, and the decision-making can only be made by relying on the experience, courage and judgment of the decision-maker.

The main types of uncertain decision-making are: equal probability method, conservative method, risk-taking method, optimism coefficient method and minimum and maximum regret value method.

The uncertain decision-making method, also known as non-deterministic decision-making, non-standard decision-making or unstructured decision-making, refers to the decision-making that the decision-maker cannot determine the probability of the occurrence of various natural states in the future.

Decision-making guidelines are the principles that decision-makers should follow in the whole process of decision-making. These include the principle requirements for the mindset of decision-making, the organization of decision-making, and the formulation of alternatives. According to the "economic man" model, people always adopt the "principle of optimization" when evaluating and selecting various feasible solutions.

Systematic trading methods.

It makes trading decision-making activities systematic and consistent, which is fundamental for traders to achieve long-term stable profits. If a trader adopts the systematic trading method for trading decision-making activities, then each trading order issued by the system has a relatively stable probability of winning and expected rate of return.

In this way, although the trading instructions issued by the trading system only have a probability of profit, and the trading system cannot guarantee that every trading order can be profitable, we know the probability distribution of the profitability of each trading order, which makes the trading decision under the guidance of the system trading method a risk-based decision.

The deterministic decision-making problem mentioned above refers to the decision-making problem in the case of the inevitable occurrence of a certain state of self-determination. If we only know what kinds of natural states will appear in the future, but we don't know which kind of spine will appear specifically, the decision-making problem at this time is the so-called uncertain decision-making. Uncertain decision-making has the following conditions:

First, there is a clear goal that the decision-maker wants to achieve (e.g., greater gains or smaller losses). The second is that there are two or more natural states that do not transfer by the subjective will of the decision-maker. Third, decision-makers cannot determine which state of nature will appear in the future among several different states of nature, and the probability (i.e., probability) of the occurrence of various states of nature is not known.

Fourth, there are two or more options of action for policymakers. Fifth, the value of profit and loss (benefit or loss) of different action plans can be calculated in different states of nature.

The main methods of uncertain decision-making are: equal probability method, conservative method, risk-taking method, optimism coefficient method and minimum and maximum regret value method.

1. Equal possibility method: calendar is also known as Laplace decision-making criterion. In this method, it is assumed that the probability of any one of them in the natural state is the same, and the option is selected by comparing the average profit and loss of each scheme, and the scheme with the largest average profit is selected under the profit maximization goal, and the scheme with the smallest average cost is selected under the cost minimization goal.

2. Conservative law: also known as Wald's decision-making criterion, the criterion of choosing the big from the small. Decision-makers do not know the probability of any of the various states of nature occurring, and the goal of decision-making is to avoid the worst-case outcome and minimize the risk.

3. Risk-taking method: also known as optimistic decision-making method, the principle of taking the big from the big. The decision-maker does not know the probability of any of the various states of nature that may occur, and the goal of the decision is to choose the best state of nature to ensure the maximum possible profit.

4. Optimism coefficient method: also known as the decay decision method, Herwes contains the decision criterion, the decision maker determines an optimism coefficient (1), uses the optimism coefficient to calculate the optimistic expectation value of each scheme, and selects the scheme with the largest expected value.

5. Minimum and maximum regret value method: also known as the Savage decision criterion, the decision-maker does not know the probability of any of the various natural states, and the decision-making goal is to ensure that a large opportunity loss is avoided.

Summary. Qualitative decision-making method, also known as subjective decision-making method, refers to a method that mainly relies on the wisdom of decision-makers or relevant experts to make decisions in decision-making"Soft technology"。Management decision-makers use the principles of social sciences and based on personal experience and judgment ability, adopt some effective organizational forms, give full play to their rich experience, knowledge and ability, start from the study of the essential characteristics of decision-making objects, grasp the internal relationship of things and their operation laws, and make judgments on the decision-making objectives of enterprise management, the formulation of decision-making plans, and the selection and implementation of programs.

This method is suitable for comprehensive problems that are greatly affected by non-quantitative factors such as social, economic, and political factors, contain complex factors, involve many social psychological factors, and are difficult to express in accurate quantities. This kind"Soft technology"Methods are the main methods employed in corporate decision-making, and it makes up for them"Hard"Methods are ineffective against human factors, social factors, and other defects. "Hard"、"Soft"The two types of technologies work together to complement each other's strengths and weaknesses to make decisions more effective.

Qualitative decision-making method, also known as subjective decision-making method, refers to a method that mainly relies on the wisdom of decision-makers or relevant experts to make decisions in the decision-making cluster"Soft technology"。Management decision-makers use the principles of social sciences and based on personal experience and judgment ability, adopt some effective organizational forms, give full play to their rich experience, knowledge and ability, start from the study of the essential characteristics of decision-making objects, grasp the internal relationship of things and their operation laws, and make judgments on the decision-making objectives of enterprise management, the formulation of decision-making plans, and the selection and implementation of programs. This method is suitable for comprehensive problems that are greatly affected by non-quantitative factors such as social, economic, and political factors, contain complex factors, involve many social psychological factors, and are difficult to express in accurate quantities.

This kind"Soft technology"Methods are the main methods employed in corporate decision-making, and it makes up for them"Hard"The method is difficult to make effective for human causes, social factors and other defects. "Hard"、"Soft"The two types of technologies work together to complement each other's strengths and weaknesses to make decisions more effective.

There are many qualitative decision-making methods, such as manager decision-making method, expert meeting method, brainstorming method, Delphi method, etc., among which Delphi technique is the most representative method. Especially in long-term strategic decision-making, the Delphi method is particularly applicable due to the uncertainty of many conditions.