How soon will the pandemic end? When will the pandemic end?

How long will it take for the pandemic to end? To expect an end, we first need to understand what factors will help bring the epidemic under control and eventually to its end.

Judging from the development trend of the epidemic in the past 15 months, the impact of seasonal climatic factors on the spread of the epidemic is relatively limited, and it is non-drug public health that has a direct impact on the epidemic.

Measures, most notably, are the use of containment of social distancing or the alleviation of social distancing. China, after the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan and the epidemic spread throughout the country, quickly adopted extremely strict containment and epidemic prevention measures, and extinguished the domestic pandemic in just over 2 months. Although there have been local outbreaks and epidemics in many places since then, the epidemic has been under control as a whole.

On the other hand, almost all other regions of the world have been guided by the epidemiological theory of the default pandemic, that is, the out-of-control epidemic, and have been adopting rubber band epidemic prevention strategies according to the epidemic situation. Now that the epidemic has eased, the epidemic prevention measures cannot be relaxed.

As a result, almost all regions of the world have already experienced 2 waves of the pandemic.

Currently, Brazil, Peru in South America are included.

France, Spain, Italy, the Czech Republic in Europe.

and other countries have entered the peak of the third wave of the pandemic.

In terms of global trends, it is uncertain whether the pandemic will enter a full-blown third wave peak.

However, as mentioned above, the impact of seasonal weather factors on the epidemic is relatively limited, and the epidemic prevention measures of various countries will remain as rubber bands as ever.

This means that, globally, it is absolutely impossible to expect to end the pandemic with containment measures.

Achieving "herd immunity" through widespread natural infection to end the pandemic?

As early as the outbreak of the epidemic, the author wrote an article arguing that the realization of "herd immunity" was the new crown epidemic.

The only endpoint of the pandemic. Although, due to the general lack of correct understanding of the concept of "herd immunity" in China at that time, it was also attacked and even abused.

Now, this view seems to have been universally accepted.

However, in view of the coronavirus.

and the uncertainty of the strength of acquired immune protection, and practice has also proved that it is not feasible to achieve "herd immunity" to control or even eliminate the epidemic through widespread infection of the population.

For example, research from Brazil shows that back in January, Amazon.

The rate of coronavirus infection among the regional population has exceeded the widely expected herd immunity of 75%, and it has not stopped the continued spread of the virus in the local area.

So far, the entire population of Brazil has a high rate of virus infection, which seems to "no problem" that Brazil is entering the peak of the third wave of the pandemic on an unprecedented scale. Therefore, it is not only not feasible to hope to end the epidemic by achieving herd immunity through universal infection, but the cost of human life is even more unacceptable to modern civilization.

Based on historical experience, the epidemic is expected to end within 1-3 years. In the face of the new crown virus in 2020, it is inevitable that the vast majority of countries will move towards "herd immunity", because the new crown is an RNA virus, and its mutation rate is 1 million times that of DNA viruses such as hepatitis B and smallpox, and the final result of the epidemic is the common evolution and rebirth of humans and viruses. As far as the current global epidemic is concerned, the closest thing in history is the Spanish flu, which began in January 1918 and ended in December 1920, which can be simply divided into three waves and lasted for nearly 3 years, so the new crown virus is expected to end in 1-3 years.

There is no research data to indicate when the pandemic will end. Judging from the current novel coronavirus epidemic, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, but the outbreak of the epidemic abroad has still significantly increased the number of patients around the world. At this time, imported cases can still occur, and there can still be sporadic new cases and imported cases every day, as well as the emergence of those asymptomatic infections, and corresponding prevention and control needs to be strengthened at this time.

Therefore, the epidemic will not end in a short period of time, but can still last for a period of time. It is necessary to strengthen the corresponding prevention and control to control the epidemic and avoid the recurrence and outbreak of the epidemic.

It is required to avoid going to the epidemic area and surrounding places, wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain unobstructed indoor air and environmental hygiene. For those with epidemiological history, they should be routinely isolated for two weeks and screened for nucleic acid testing of the novel coronavirus. Pay attention to hand hygiene, maintain good living habits, etc., to control the epidemic as soon as possible.

2025 to 2030, because this virus is a general virus, with strong transmission and a very high fatality rate, 18

Let's end the epidemic as soon as possible, so that everyone can work and live normally.

Let's hope it ends.

The global pandemic could last for one to two years.

On May 23, 2020, Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai new crown pneumonia medical treatment team and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, and Zhang Boli, deputy to the National People's Congress and president of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, were interviewed by reporters.

Zhang Wenhong said: The epidemic has not ended so far, and the epidemic in the world may continue for one to two years, which means that in the next three months or three months, the whole world may restart, and a sign of the reopening of the whole world is that we will have more and more imported incidental cases.

Occasional sporadic cases will be a feature of our next one to two years, and hopefully our economic activities will not be affected by these one or two sporadic cases.

The World Health Organization's criteria for ending an infectious disease outbreak is that the last confirmed case is considered to be over after two incubation periods from the time when both tests were negative for the virus.

Because of the particularity of this epidemic, if the epidemic is basically over, there should be two very important indicators, one is the international standard of two incubation periods after zero-COVID, and the other is to find out all the existing cases and admit them to hospitalization or isolation to ensure that there are no new cases. Li Lanjuan emphasized.

Li Lanjuan said that at present, it is not easy to say that the epidemic is over, and there are still many patients in the hospital who need treatment, and it is difficult to define the specific end time of the epidemic.

From a national perspective, all provinces except Hubei can basically return to normal, and Wuhan will have to hold on for a while. Li Lanjuan said.

Be vigilant against the "resurgence" of viruses and "overseas imports".

We look forward to returning to normal as soon as possible, and at the same time, we cannot take it lightly, Wuhan can no longer afford to be injured. A front-line medical worker in Wuhan said that there are currently some cases of recovery in the hospital, and it is recommended that the isolation period be longer, from two weeks to four weeks, so as not to waste all the previous efforts.

No one can answer this question correctly, and no one can be sure, including Professor Zhong Nanshan! Because of the continuous import from abroad, the local area is also constantly breeding sporadically. If the country is completely eliminated, it will not end until the whole world is completely eliminated.

It is impossible to end, let alone end completely, in the foreseeable future.

However, with the exception of a few countries and regions led by North Korea, they have basically returned to their previous state of life, that is, they have coexisted with the virus.

We may be waiting until people get bored or feel indifferent and out of control, or they may be forced to accept and return to normalcy.

It has been a month since the new variant Omicron was first identified in South Africa on November 9, and as the epidemic prevention and control continues to advance, the topic of when the new crown epidemic will end is once again in the spotlight. A few days ago, Microsoft founder Bill Gates**, although the emergence of Omicron is worrying, the "acute phase" of this epidemic will come to an end sometime in 2022. And the WHO has previously said that the new crown epidemic will "continue for more than a year".

At present, the epidemic will coexist with everyone with a high probability event, the invention of special drugs and the treatment of mutant poison bead vaccines are scientific problems, and the epidemic may be much less harmful to everyone. With the end of coexistence with protective habits, it is the norm to gradually clear the epidemic.

When will the epidemic end, and it will not end within the foreseeable three or five years, so be mentally prepared.

It's hard to say, for now, it won't end in a short time, and it may always be with us.

Hello, it may last for a long time. There is currently no particularly effective way to contain the virus, and symbiosis with the virus may be the best option.

The epidemic is difficult to end for a while, and we must be prepared for a long-term struggle against the epidemic!

There are several key points to the disappearance of the epidemic, 1) the prevention and control of countries around the world, and 2) the degree of vaccine promotion.

The global pandemic could last for one to two years. It's over youth.

Really, this feeling is uncertain, and I don't know when it will be over.

The pandemic will definitely pass and people will return to their previous lives, but it is not clear how long it will be. It may be 3 or 5 years, it may be 8-10 years, and if it is pessimistic, it may go up in 20 years.

The reason why the epidemic will definitely pass:

1) There have been more serious epidemics in history, and I haven't seen any extinction of human beings, and before 2020, they lived a relatively free life.

2) After the popularization of vaccines, the rate of severe disease and mortality has been greatly reduced, and the sequelae are not as frightening as they have been transmitted.

3) If the epidemic lasts long enough, a specific drug can be developed sooner or later, and once a specific drug appears, then the new crown will be downgraded to the common flu.

4) There is a limit to the mutation of the new coronavirus, and it is impossible to mutate indefinitely.

5) If the new crown can really mutate indefinitely and turn into a virus with high infection and high mortality, then it will be easier to do, and countries around the world will definitely implement the strictest epidemic prevention measures to completely suffocate the new crown virus.

In short, the epidemic will definitely pass, and we can return to the same life as before, but in the fog of history, we do not know whether the current is the eve of the dawn or the beginning of a long dark night.

The pandemic will eventually pass.

National Health Commission.

Expert Group Leader: There are 4 conditions that need to be met for the epidemic to end.

If we really want the epidemic to end as soon as possible, we may need to adopt more scientific measures to deal with it. The National Health Commission's epidemic emergency.

Liang Wannian, the leader of the disposal expert group, also mentioned at the press conference that at least four conditions need to be met for the epidemic to be completely over.

The first condition: the virus is getting weaker and weaker.

Only when the virus becomes less transmissible and the threat to health becomes less and less threatening can it avoid triggering a wider spread of the virus.

The second condition: the vaccine is more effective.

When people can get more effective vaccines, it means less viral infection.

Risk, prevention of severe disease, and death are more effective.

The third point: the special drug** new crown.

In addition to preventing viral infection, there must also be the emergence of ** new crown drugs, and after being infected, the development of the disease can be blocked because of drugs.

Fourth, the global epidemic trend has improved.

At present, many countries have chosen to "lie flat" for epidemic prevention, and in this environment, China's epidemic prevention situation is also relatively severe, and it is necessary to strictly prevent overseas imports.

From these perspectives, if we can achieve these four points in the future and continue to approach these points, I believe that it will also bring greater help to end the epidemic as soon as possible.

When the global epidemic is expected to end, the experts of various countries and related organizations are different, some experts may end in 2023, the latest time is 2024, and then the experts of some relevant countries are **The epidemic will end in 2022 or 2023.

If the epidemic will continue to develop according to a bad trend, it may end in six years, and then the more official World Health Organization's ** is that mankind will defeat the epidemic in 2022, and then the ** of each country and each organization is different.

Therefore, no matter when the end time is, we can only do a good job of social distancing control at a point in time like this, and we can also do a good job of personal protection.

The pandemic has had a great impact on humanity, how long will it take for the pandemic to end? What will life be like in the future? Regarding these problems, Academician Zhong Nanshan said this:

The coronavirus may be long-lasting, and we will gradually open up in the dynamic zero-COVID situation. That is to say,Although the coronavirus may be around for another five or even ten years, we will overcome it as soon as possible and gradually return to normal life.

1.The coronavirus has become ubiquitous in the human world.

However, the new coronavirus is still prevalent on a global scale, and we know that many European and American countries have adopted a balanced and skillful epidemic prevention policy.

2.The new coronavirus is a zoonotic virus.

Although humans have not made greater progress in tracing the origin of the virus, the new crown virus has been detected in many animals, including the mutant strain Omicron.

3.The coronavirus is constantly mutating.

The prevalence of the new crown virus also provides it with enough mutation space and mutation time, as far as the mutant strain Omicron is concerned, it is following and is setting off a new wave of epidemics in Western countries led by the United States.

Academician Zhong Nanshan also gave advice on how to gradually realize opening up in the dynamic zero-COVID policy: do a good job in scientific management, scientific prevention, and scientific development.

1.Scientific.

Scientific management, that is, to push the epidemic prevention and control to precision, and further reduce the impact of prevention and control measures on our normal work and life on the premise of doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control.

2.Scientific prevention.

Popularizing the vaccination of the new crown vaccine, taking sequential vaccination to strengthen immunization, and promoting the research and development of vaccines against mutant strains are all important contents of strengthening the immune barrier and carrying out scientific prevention in the future.

3.Science**.

Corresponding to the defensive effect of the new crown vaccine, the new crown medicine is our effective measure against the new crown virus in the future. At present, a number of new crown drugs developed in China have entered the third phase of clinical trials, and we also hope that new crown drugs can be launched on the market as soon as possible and play a role.

The impact of the new crown epidemic is still there, and it will continue for a period of time, but with various scientific means, we will eventually overcome the epidemic and gradually return to normal life, and such a time process will not be too long, maybe two or three years, or shorter.