Analyze the relationship between age structure and population change process

There is no distinction between men and women in this picture. It is said that the sex ratio of the population has been high in the last decade or so. Therefore, when we watch, we should pay attention to the age group of 0-9 years old. Their actual number may be slightly less than shown on the graph.

After all, demographers don't focus on men. The number of women is the determining factor in demographic change. There are also some basic assumptions to say:

I assume that the working age of the population is 20-60 years. Although the usual assumption is 15-60 or 15-65 years old, it is clear that it is almost impossible for 15-year-olds to find a job nowadays.

It takes 20 years old to complete an educational cycle that is socially competitive. As for the retirement age, I think 60 is relatively close to reality in China at the moment. Then the age of childbearing is assumed to be 20-40 years.

At present, the minimum age of marriage for women in China is 20 years old, and in ethnic minority areas, it is 18 years old. I don't think it's possible to break through that lower limit overall. And over 40 years old and the mother is definitely considered old.

It is also rare (although the accepted upper limit is 45 years old, I don't think there will be very many women between 40-45 years old). The gap of 1 generation, I assume is 25 years. This is a rough assumption.

A more rigorous approach would be to examine fertility rates for all different age groups, and then calculate fertility levels for all possible age groups to increase the number of the next generation.

But the mathematical model of this method is too complex, and it is not possible to rely on my brain, graphs, and calculators alone. So I'll simplify it to 25 years. But because I don't think that this number is much worse than the real number.

Maybe it's more reasonable to go to the age, but the numbers are grouped by 5 years. I didn't either.

Population ageing refers to the dynamics of the corresponding increase in the proportion of the elderly population in the total population due to the decrease in the number of young people and the increase in the number of older people. Internationally, the proportion of the population over 60 years old in the total population reaches 10%, or the proportion of the population over 65 years old reaches 7% of the total population as the standard for countries or regions to enter an aging society. Two meanings:

First, it refers to the process of the relative increase in the elderly population and the increasing proportion of the total population; The second refers to the fact that the social population structure is in a state of old age and has entered an aging society. The international view is that when the elderly population over 60 years old accounts for 10% of the total population in a country or region, or the elderly population over 65 years old accounts for 7% of the total population, it means that the population of the country or region is in an aging society.

The proportion of the population over 60 years old in the total population reaches 10%, or the proportion of the population over 65 years old reaches 7% of the total population as the standard for a country or region to enter an aging society.

The age distribution of the Chinese population is as follows:

At 10 a.m. on May 11, 2021, the results of the seventh national census were announced, with a total population of 100 million people, of which 723339956 were males, accounting for; The female population is 688438768, accounting for.

The sex ratio of the total population is: Among them, the population aged 0-14 accounts for the population, the population aged 15-59 accounts for the population, the population aged 60 and above, and the population aged 65 and above.

The age structure of the population in the strict sense refers only to the percentage (relative) of the population by each age group, i.e. column 2 in the table above. However, in some cases, in addition to the relative weight of the population of each age group, the number of people in each age group (absolute number) is also arranged together and displayed together, as shown in column 1 of the table above.

The age structure of the population can be grouped by 1 year old, 5 years old, 10 years old or a specific age group distance of the laughing type, of which the 1-year-old age group distance is the most basic, and the other age group distances can be combined on this basis.

For example, in order to reflect the type of age structure of the population, the population is divided into three groups: 0 14 years old, 15 64 years old, and 65 years old and above, namely the children's group, the adult group and the elderly group. Population age grouping is also often used in conjunction with gender grouping.

For the balanced development of the age structure of the population, China should:

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For the balanced development of the age structure of the population, China should be as follows: At present, China has initially built a "three-pillar" pension insurance system based on basic endowment insurance, supplemented by enterprise (occupational) annuity, and connected with personal savings endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance. The first pillar is the basic old-age insurance system, which is jointly borne by the state, units and individuals, and adheres to full coverage and basic protection.

The second pillar is the enterprise (occupational) annuity system, which is jointly borne by units and individuals, and implements complete accumulation and market-oriented operation. The third pillar is personal savings endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance. Compared with the world average, there is a large gap in the proportion of China's pension in GDP, mainly due to the first.

The proportion of the second and third pillars is too small. Clause.

The second and third pillars of the pension system is to consolidate the core assets of the wealth reserves in response to the aging of the population, because the first pillar of the pension in China and most of the developed countries are pay-as-you-go.

The second and third pillars are the main carriers for the accumulation of pension assets. The development of a multi-level old-age security system depends on scientific system design and supporting fiscal and taxation policies. In terms of system design, the second pillar should maximize the participation rate, introduce an "automatic joining" mechanism, cancel the vesting period of employers' contributions, liberalize the right of individual investment choices, introduce a life cycle, and expand the scope of investment.

In addition, the third pillar pilot has been more than 3 years, and the upgraded design of the third pillar should be announced as soon as possible, increase the preferential tax ratio, simplify the individual income tax deduction procedures, and improve the product line to cover insurance, **, bank wealth management products, etc. should be opened.

The channel between the two and three pillars to achieve a win-win situation. The enterprise annuity has been running for 17 years, and a blueprint should be drawn to the end. In terms of fiscal and taxation reform, we should first establish a pension-friendly individual income tax system and adhere to the principles of a wide tax base, a simplified tax system and a low tax rate.

Secondly, in 2019, China successfully realized the transformation of the itemized income tax system to the individual comprehensive income tax system, and the reform should continue.

Second, the third pillar of the pension system is an important measure. Hope mine can help you <>

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For the balanced development of the age structure of the population, China should:

In order to achieve a balanced development of the age structure of the population, China should give the following measures: first, we must first legislate, everything is implemented in accordance with the law, and the three-child policy is formally incorporated into the legal framework, so that the policy can be basically implemented, and the social maintenance fee and other restrictive measures are canceled, which is also called the fine for overbirth. As an economic measure to restrict the willingness to have children, social maintenance fees have officially withdrawn from the historical stage.

The second is to improve the supporting measures for childbirth, so as to reduce the cost of childbirth, parenting, and education for families. Establish and improve the population service system around "childbirth, parenting, and education"; 3. Improve the level of eugenics and childcare services. To ensure the health of pregnant women and children, the second is to prevent birth defects and standardize the application of human assisted reproductive companion technology.

Fourth, the development of inclusive childcare service system. Childcare mainly solves the problem of child care, children are taken care of, adults can concentrate on work, strive for more income, and solve the most critical economic problems. Promote the healthy development of childcare services and increase the training of professional talents; vigorously develop various forms of inclusive services; and strengthen work supervision.

Fifth, the organization should strengthen policy publicity and work supervision.

Summary. We will further unleash fertility potential, alleviate the pressure of population aging, increase labor supply, and promote balanced population development.

For the balanced development of the age structure of the population, China should:

We will further unleash fertility potential, alleviate the pressure of population aging, increase labor supply, and promote balanced population development.

In the context of high housing prices and childcare costs, it is unrealistic to have three children! In this regard, there is not only a way to solve the tactics of crowds, from the number of people to the quality of the population, which can also stimulate the economy and solve the social security. For example:

10 low-ability people may only contribute 1 million to GDP, but 1 high-ability person may create 1 million GDP, and the effect is like a smile. Therefore, the focus should be on a comprehensive reform from early childhood to university, which is the fundamental solution to economic development. It is not advisable to blindly emphasize the number of people and hope for the demographic dividend.