How does economist Peng Wensheng look at the internal and external dual circulation from small th

Recently, there has been a lot of discussion on the new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles reinforcing each other. The market is very concerned about this new formulation, but there are also many differences in understanding, such as the meaning of internal and external circulation and how to interact with the two? How to understand the logical connection between "dual circulation and mutual promotion"?

Peng Wensheng, chief economist and head of research at CICC, elaborated on these issues in light of the new challenges brought to the economy by the pandemic.

The new crown epidemic has brought new challenges to the transmission efficiency of traditional macro policies. Compared with the risk of quantifiable losses, the new crown virus brings more uncertainty about unquantifiable losses. Uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic, the economic impact, and the policy response have led to an increase in precautionary savings, dampening private sector consumption and real investment in the moment.

Conventional monetary policies (interest rate cuts) and unconventional monetary policies (QE and forward-looking guidance) are difficult to eliminate excess savings and liquidity traps, and are prone to financial risks, and the multiplier effect of traditional fiscal policies such as infrastructure investment will also be weakened. Therefore, to expand domestic demand, we need to break the inertial thinking, and we can consider unconventional fiscal policies in response to the epidemic, eliminate uncertainty as much as possible, and increase the motivation for consumption and investment.

Because the economic cycle has both quality and quantity attributes, so "the domestic cycle as the main body" means to expand domestic demand by promoting consumption, and a higher level of opening up is in parallel, in the "domestic cycle as the main body" at the same time, but also pay attention to the "dual circulation mutual promotion". At present, China has entered a new economic era dominated by the digital economy, and the expansion of the application scenarios of the digital economy by the new crown epidemic has promoted the development of the digital economy represented by the contactless economy. The effect of interaction may not be as good as face-to-face interaction, but the isolation under the epidemic has led to a significant increase in the cost of face-to-face interaction, making it more cost-effective to switch to a contactless economy during the epidemic period.

With the advancement of technology, the cost of people's interaction and remote interaction is decreasing, which means that the scope, breadth and depth of the application of the digital economy will continue to increase, and even after the epidemic, it is possible to replace the contact economy. Therefore, focusing on the post-epidemic period, it is necessary to understand the mutual promotion of internal and external circulation from both quality and quantity, and pay special attention to the impact of the development of the digital economy.

First of all, it is necessary to break the inertial thinking from the country's economic macro policy to promote the domestic economic cycle and curb the current consumption and real investment of the private sector.

To put it simply, such phenomena as long-term unemployment is not conducive to the accumulation of human capital, need to be based on internal circulation in the post-epidemic era, but it is not to operate in a closed manner, but to put forward higher requirements for opening up, to promote the recovery of the world economy through the prosperity of the domestic economy, so that the world can share the dividends of China's huge domestic demand, and realize internal and external dual circulation.

Before the outbreak of the Great Economic Crisis, the mainstream bourgeois economists generally believed that the capitalist economy had a self-regulating mechanism that would naturally provide the working people with the opportunity to fully employ themselves. This good outcome is produced by the free movement of wages and prices that can balance supply and demand. The outbreak of the Great Crisis has severely challenged this theory.

It's not really about where you go. If you are an investor or an academic, etc. (not a national decision-maker anyway), you should correctly judge which theory is more suitable for the present and the future, and judge the economic events that will happen next, because reality is often the most convincing.

Second, for an economic theory, it is important to be clear about the environment of the time in which the economist lives and his political stance.

Thirdly, the highest level of a scholar is personality, which can also be used as a reference.

Take the essence and remove the dross. Gather hundreds of schools into one family. There needs to be a process of finishing and absorbing.

1。To look at his position first, if he has no direct interest in that economic phenomenon, the credibility is relatively high, just like the ** analyst, he himself is also involved in it, if he can analyze it correctly and comprehensively, he will not tell everyone, he secretly makes money...

2。Again, we have to look at the correctness of the economic phenomena he has analyzed, if the previous analysis is basically a fool, I believe this time it is also nonsense...

3。Observing economic phenomena again, we must put a good mentality, and there is no absolute right or wrong. Chinese and foreign economists will make different analyses of the same phenomenon because of their different cultural backgrounds and concepts.

It is the transition cycle of the economy from low to high. Hey.

Economics is the study of how to allocate resources most effectively to maximize benefits and outputs under the premise of limited resources. The main tasks of economists are: First, to analyze complex economic phenomena and find out the laws behind them, so as to form a set of effective theories.

Second, it analyzes phenomena according to theories, evaluates the state of economic operation, and gives its own suggestions to improve economic operation. To become a qualified economist, you must first learn existing economic theories and then continue to summarize and develop your own insights through practice. Secondly:

Don't be an apologist for any personal organization.

How to rationally allocate and use scarce resources.

Strive to study economic theories and actively participate in some activities of economics.

Economists and management scientists certainly have a different understanding of the market. This is because the scope and function of their research are different. Economists study the macroeconomy, studying the development trends of the entire market (international or domestic); Management scientists study microeconomics, the strategy and tactics of organizations, as well as market strategies.

Just like the difference between the general manager and the workshop director, the general manager considers the development direction of the enterprise and the market position of the product; The workshop director is thinking about how to complete the tasks assigned by the boss this month and this year.