Are earthquakes hard to predict Are earthquakes really hard to predict?

With current technology, it's still difficult. There were studies in ancient China, but they could only be detected when it happened, not before it happened.

One of the best ways to do this: watch the animals behave.

What's hard?

It is a scientific problem recognized by the world. What is the difficulty? Academician Chen Yuntai explained that ** can not be tracked and monitored like typhoons and tornadoes; Unlike volcanic eruptions, microseismic activity, ground inclination, and small-scale precursor eruptions can generally be observed in volcanic areas before volcanic eruptions.

To date, scientists have not found a definitive precursor that can be observed before all major ** without exception; And once this abnormal phenomenon occurs, it will occur without exception. Conversely, the occurrence of precursors often varies greatly from place to place, and even before different occurrences occur in the same region.

Moreover, due to the "inaccessibility" of the earth's interior, people cannot go deep into the earth's interior to install observation devices in the epicenter area and directly study the causes of **. The deepest drilling to date is at 10km on the Kola Peninsula in the former Soviet Union; The "German Continental Deep Drilling Program", which is currently underway near the German-Czech border, is scheduled to drill 15 kilometres. However, compared to the Earth's radius of 6,371 meters, this is just a "scratch of the surface", and it does not solve the problem of direct observation of the hypocenter.

In addition, while there are ** happening every day on Earth, there are big ** not every day.

The time of the great science is much longer than the life span of human beings and the time since the observation of modern instruments, which also limits the progress of science in the observation of phenomena and the recognition of empirical laws. Scientists can only make observations using a network of observatories on the Earth's surface and in the Earth's interior, which are very shallow from the Earth's surface, and the information obtained is very incomplete, insufficient, and sometimes inaccurate.

The future of academic research.

Although there are many difficulties in achieving ****, **scientists have been working hard to achieve this goal. Academician Chen pointed out that a deeper understanding of the essence of science in science is the direction of development of science in the coming century, and in this regard, new observation techniques and new theories are the focus of development.

As the observation technology fully enters the digital age, there will be new progress in the recording of frequency bands and dynamic ranges, and the analysis and interpretation of recordings. Observing the Earth from a spatial perspective will also become a new technology of science. The development and improvement of the global communication network enables scientists from all over the world to quickly understand the world's best information and experience, accelerate the accumulation of seismic cases, and promote the development of empirical forecasting.

The application of theories, concepts and methods in nonlinear science will enable the development of the current purely empirical method to the dynamic method.

It is foreseeable that with the rapid accumulation, real-time processing and extensive and in-depth research of an unprecedented amount of high-quality data, and with the cross-penetration of scientific research and geodesy and other geophysical observation studies, people will gain a deeper and accurate understanding of the tectonics, movements and dynamic evolution of the earth's interior. All this will certainly make significant progress in the study of the causes, so that the precursor monitoring will be based on a solid theoretical and experimental detection basis, so as to finally realize the science of the first.

If it is good to measure, it will be difficult, and the key is that there is no shock absorption method.

That's it, that's right. A day or two ago, there were a lot of people crossing the road, but some experts (professional worries) said that the oxygen was insufficient, and all of them moved at once.

Hundreds of years ago, Zhang Heng invented the ** instrument, and I don't believe in the current technology, even if it is an hour and a half in advance

Not really accurate**, but** a tornado is easier than a d'd.

It is one of the most destructive and difficult, and if it can be timely, it can minimize the loss, but it is not simple.

So far, forecasting has been a worldwide problem. Forecasts must include time, place, and intensity, and due to the complexity of the situation, some can be forecasted and some cannot be forecasted. At present, including developed countries such as the United States and Japan, the forecast is still in the exploratory stage, and the forecast is far from being as accurate as the weather forecast.

In recent years, there are some scientists in the world who have a negative opinion on ****. Some people even published the "can't**" argument that "**can't**" and clearly put forward the argument that "**can't**". However, some other scientists have affirmed the achievements of forecasting, believing that short-term forecasts of the location, time, and magnitude of earthquakes will eventually be realized, while the achievements of long-term forecasts are even more prominent.

It's still more difficult, after all, it's not accurate.

First of all, relying on the existing technology, it is not possible to enter the interior of the earth to directly detect its internal movement and epicenter situation, lack of direct observation data, and secondly, the cause is complex, and there are many random factors that affect the gestation and influence process of **, in addition, most of them occur in trenches or sparsely populated areas, and it occurs less in areas with dense observation networks, and some scientific research results are difficult.

To be exact, yes**.

However, it is difficult to find the specific location, size, surface and center.

What's more, **** is a world problem! It's hard to fix ...

It can be to a certain extent**. It's hard to be particularly accurate, though.

In 1975, Haicheng was a successful model, and in 1976, 180,000 houses collapsed in Qinglong County, less than 100 kilometers away from Tangshan, but there was no one due to timely warning.

It's nice to be able to predict 10 percent!

**Forecast, especially earthquake forecast, for example, tomorrow's weather will rain this kind of earthquake forecast, the world has not passed, our country has not passed, is a world problem. There are many different natures, sometimes all of a sudden there is a big **, and there are some small earthquakes after the big **. In some places, there is a small earthquake and then a big earthquake, and this type of ** may be very high.

Some ** have animal anomalies before they occur, but some ** have no anomalies. So this kind of law is not the same, and we are constantly exploring and studying the problem of **forecasting.

Except for China, which correctly ** once in the late 70s, there is no other country in the world that can be accurate.

**It is impossible to be accurate**, and the news about ** cannot be reported casually. Countries like the United States and Japan that are more technologically advanced than China can**, including Hanshin University in Japan and Los Angeles University in the United States**. So don't just complain to the comrades of the ** bureau.

There must be a reason for such a big **, don't simply guess, let alone talk nonsense.

The comrades of the ** bureau should make a good summary, investigate the causes and actively provide disaster relief.

About Zhang Heng's Ground Branch:

To be correct, the ground support instrument invented by Zhang Heng is not ****, but only after the ** to know which direction it happened, but this is already a kind of in the ancient era of inconvenient transportation"Forecast"way, because it takes a long way to let the people of the capital know that **happened**.

The function of Zhang Heng's "Wind Waiting Ground Motion Instrument" is to determine the best direction.

There is an inverted, long wooden vertebrae with a high center of gravity in the geokinetic instrument, which is in an unstable state, similar to an upside-down beer bottle. When the ** wave is transmitted, the initial direction of motion of the base of the instrument is directed towards the epicenter, in the opposite direction. Due to its own inertia, the direction in which the wooden vertebrae fell at this time was directed to the epicenter.

The fall of the wooden vertebrae triggers a lever in this direction, and the lever drives a dragon head in this direction, and the dragon head releases the wooden beads in its mouth, thus indicating the direction of the epicenter.

The geokinetic meter cannot determine the distance and size of the epicenter.

**It is not possible to give accurate warnings at this time.

The difficulty is determined by three factors. The first is the inaccessibility of the earth. At present, human beings can only speculate on the changes that are taking place in the subsurface through surface observations, and this speculation is far from unique.

The second is the complexity of the pregnancy law. Through years of research by experts, it is now gradually realized that the process of gestation, occurrence and development is very complex, and in different geographical tectonic environments and different time stages, the process of gestation of different magnitudes shows quite complex pregnancy process. The third is the small probability of ** occurring.

Everyone may feel that there are ** happening in the world every year, and some are still relatively large**; But for a region, the recurrence time is very long, decades, hundreds, thousands of years, and if scientific research is conducted, there are statistical samples. And the acquisition of this sample is very difficult in a person's lifetime. ”

First of all, relying on the existing technology, it is not possible to enter the interior of the earth to directly detect its internal movement and epicenter situation, lack of direct observation data, and secondly, the cause is complex, and there are many random factors that affect the gestation and influence process of **, in addition, most of them occur in trenches or sparsely populated areas, and it occurs less in areas with dense observation networks, and some scientific research results are difficult.

The difficulty of forecasting is actually due to the lack of understanding of people. Teng Jiwen, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and researcher at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that there are three major difficulties in forecasting

One is the inaccessibility of the Earth's interior. The deepest drilling so far is the ultra-deep drilling on the Kola Peninsula in the former Soviet Union, reaching 12 kilometers, which is still "scratching" compared with the average radius of the earth of 6,370 kilometers, and still cannot solve the problem of direct observation of the hypocenter.

The academic description of ** still stays in the qualitative expression given by Li Siguang, "the underground energy will explode after accumulating to a certain extent", but there is no quantitative expression. That is, it is not known to what level of energy needs to be in order to trigger **. The tipping point is how much energy is gathered, which cannot be solved at all in a short period of time, and there is no theoretical support, and scientists have likened this status quo to the infant period when they are still in the understanding of the earth.

In the view of Chen Xuezhong, a researcher at the Research Institute of China's ** Bureau, what is the mechanism of the first generation, we can't drill into the ground to find out, just as it is easy to enter the earth.

The second is the non-frequency nature of large **. So far, the research on the precursor phenomenon before the big ** is still in the stage of summarizing and studying each earthquake case, and there is a lack of practical and reliable empirical laws necessary to establish the theory of the occurrence of **.

The third is the complexity of physical processes. Processes are highly nonlinear and extremely complex physical processes. The complexity and variability of the occurrence of precursors may be closely related to the complexity of the geological environment of the source area and the high nonlinearity and complexity of the process.

At present, no country in the world can be said to be able to accurately forecast, Japan has invested a lot of money in this project to study for a hundred years and can get accurate forecast results, so it is impossible to accurately forecast so far.

China's **** level is the world's leading. This ** may have been measured, but the scope of influence is too large, and it is estimated that it has not been reported, resulting in the current consequences.

With current science and technology, it is not possible to predict the occurrence of **prediction**.

I'm thinking about why this is still the case when Zhang Heng was so accurate thousands of years ago, and I hope it came too suddenly, otherwise.

What do you think.

What about copying? Hasn't science yet reached the point of prediction? I guess, no.

First of all, if Wenchuan **, assuming that the country has arrived, once it is announced, tens of millions of people in Sichuan will cause panic, many institutions will be paralyzed in advance, a lot of traffic will be in a mess, and even some unscrupulous people will take advantage of the fire to rob. Great social upheaval was formed.

You can do an experiment where you can break chopsticks with your hand and judge when the chopsticks broke.

1 You look at chopsticks with your eyes, what accuracy can you achieve?

2 What accuracy can you achieve with your eyes closed?

Condition: Chopsticks are arbitrary.

This is similar to human forecasting, which is the movement of the earth's crust, and the strength of the earth's crust and the forces that cause it to be subjected are unknown.

It is the most serious natural disaster that can cause the most loss of life and property, because the disaster is not even limited to the epicenter and its surrounding area, and the tsunami caused by it can even threaten tens of thousands of kilometers away from the epicenter. At present, there are three main methods, one is the method of geophysics, the second is the method of electromagnetic field mechanics, and the other is the method of statistics. All three methods are still in their primitive.

Forecasting is to inform people of the imminent occurrence of the event before it happens, so that people can take various ways to avoid danger, and the early warning is to tell people that it has happened before the wave arrives, so that people can have a chance to escape by various means.

**Of these methods of forecasting, the geophysical method is the most intuitive and illustrative. Theoretically, it should be as accurate as a weather forecast. But now the weather forecast is supported by meteorological satellites, weather radars, a large amount of data accumulation and supercomputers, people can forecast the weather in a range of thousands of kilometers in a scale of several meters, as well as a deep understanding of the mechanism of various weather phenomena, so in addition to the local heavy rain caused by environmental damage in recent years, people have been able to forecast the weather with high accuracy and satisfaction.

Compared with the understanding of the atmosphere outside the earth and the means of surveillance, people's understanding of the interior of the earth and the means of monitoring can be said to be pitiful. Using the current knowledge of geophysics, one can only approximate the probability of whether a large ** will occur in a certain area, but it is impossible to accurately predict when and at what magnitude**.

Using electromagnetic field mechanics, it is possible to indirectly infer the physical changes that occur in the interior of the earth. When physical changes occur in the Earth's interior, the electromagnetic field on the Earth's surface will definitely change, and some reports of abnormal animal behavior or abnormal environmental changes on the eve of the Earth can also be explained by electromagnetic field theory. The problem is that people can't do more than just the correspondence of the missing functions between the two and can't build a query index.

There have been many reports of animals behaving abnormally or changing their environment prior to **. But many of these reports of so-called "anomalous phenomena" are actually the result of some kind of psychological suggestion to a greater extent. For example, when someone encounters an accident that does not concern them, others can always find some so-called "abnormal behavior" that seems to hint at the person's fate before the accident, such as a person who is lazy with housework cleaning the house before going out today.

People tend to believe that everything has a precursor and ignore the fact that this "lazy man" actually cleans up once in a while. In fact, there are many ** that are not accompanied by abnormal phenomena, and abnormal phenomena that are not accompanied by ** can often be observed. But these anomalies will soon be forgotten, and only those anomalies that accompany major disasters will be remembered, so these "anomalies" cannot be relied on to ****.