A question about the European debt crisis?

To put it simply, the state has issued too many national bonds, and even their country's treasury can't afford it, so relative to the company, the country has to go bankrupt, but the state is a sovereign entity, unlike the enterprise, he can't go bankrupt, so the EU has to pull them along.

In the midst of the European debt crisis, Zheng Bao implicitly embodied the structural antagonism of the market. Developed countries need a broader market, especially Germany, their own people work hard, but not much, more producers need to find a market, European economic integration can produce a huge market, reduce the cost of market transactions, conducive to exports; Many countries in the eurozone are relatively backward in economic development, but their own markets are open to other countries, which leads to the ** deficit and fiscal deficit of weak countries.

Credit institutions, their pure Zen reality, must have done lead dust to a certain extent, but still alleviated the financial crisis. Because unlike China, investors in the European and American markets are much more rational and the market is much more mature. While credit institutions have a conventional role (as Liu Jia said), we should also pay attention to the use of financial instruments, especially in recent years, the impact of assetization, the traditional role of credit institutions is gradually weakened.

Of course, as several large international credit rating agencies, their policies are also adjusted from time to time.

Before 1998, the countries with the highest interest rates were: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain. After the eurozone countries began to irrevocably fix each other's exchange rates (ERM-II), the interest rates on the 10-year government bonds of the eurozone countries suddenly fell and converged to the interest rates of Germany, which made it clear that the financing costs of some countries were quickly reduced (the interest rate on Greek bonds was reduced by almost 5 percentage points!). , and then their debts began to ballooze.

The banking market in the developed countries of Europe is highly saturated (thousands of banks), and the market is not easy to do; In terms of the general environment, under the combined effect of long-term low interest rates, high expectations for future economic growth, risk appetite and other factors (which began to dust after 911), banks and other institutions are looking for high-yield and low-risk assets to invest in. IKB is such a model bank, which has nothing to do in the highly competitive banking market in Germany, and simply takes the lead in investing in the largest amount of assets.

From the perspective of European banks, the European banking crisis led to the American subprime debt crisis, and in order to save the banks (as those who have done the rating know, most of the banks are rated relatively high, and the rating method of the company is completely different, and many of them enjoy the treatment of sub-sovereignty, or at least take into account the support of **), the bailout led to the bloodshed, out of control, and transmitted to each other, detonating the European banking crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis.

The best way is to reduce the denominator (economic capital), and the way to reduce it is to find assets with low risk weight, because in general, economic capital is the weight of assets multiplied by 8%, so the lower the risk weight, the better, of course, the return should be reasonable. And through **, the asset-backed (ABS) rating can be very high.

First, the real problem of the debt crisis is the financial crisis.

The continuation and deepening of the . After each crisis, the fiscal deficit worsens. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

Not only did it trigger a global recession, but it also ignited a huge debt risk in Europe. The average deficit level of 16 countries in the euro area is more than 6%, so the excessive fiscal deficit and excessive debt of each country are directly caused by the European debt crisis.

Second, the spillover effect of the euro interferes with the unified monetary policy.

Because of the decentralized fiscal policy and unified monetary policy, each country is overly dependent on fiscal policy in the face of the impact of the crisis, and finally the fiscal deficit tends to expand. In addition, because the eurozone has been implementing a low interest rate policy for a long time, some countries such as Greece have borrowed for a long time, ostensibly to promote domestic economic growth, but in fact to mask the problem of low labor productivity and high labor costs. These problems in the economic crisis.

It was gradually revealed that these borrowing countries were increasingly unable to repay their debts, and eventually defaulted on a large number of them. Therefore, the fiscal and monetary policy of the euro area is also an important reason for the European debt crisis.

3. Eurozone countries such as Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal.

The internal economic imbalances of these countries are the deeper causes of the debt crisis. Spain, for example, has an economy above the EU average, has fallen into a severe recession after more than a decade of growth, the country's unemployment rate has risen sharply, and its fiscal deficit has far exceeded the EU's allowable ceiling. For example, Greece has a large number of civil servants, public utilities account for 40% of the total GDP, tax evasion is serious, long-term budget overruns, and the income is seriously declining.

Fourth, the gap in labor productivity and competitiveness within the eurozone is widening, and there is a large current-account imbalance between Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece. The most serious thing about Greece and Spain is that the countries have huge profit deficits.

and current account deficits.

Fifth, Greece and other countries have raised wages and pensions too much.

and other social welfare benefits. With the aging of the country's population.

The problem has intensified, putting serious pressure on the financial front.

The European debt crisis refers to the debt crisis that has occurred in Greece and other EU countries since the financial crisis in 2008. Since 2010, the rest of Europe has been gradually falling into crisis, which is that Greece is no longer the protagonist of the European debt crisis, but the entire European Union is suffering from the debt crisis. A financial crisis can lead to a debt crisis, which in turn can lead to an economic crisis, and the economic crisis cycle consists of four stages: crisis, depression, recovery, and upswing.

The trigger for the European debt crisis was the downgrading of Greece's sovereign rating by the world's three major rating companies in December 2009, which led to a fiscal crisis that led to a sharp increase in the euro against the dollar, and Greece's fiscal problems could drag down other EU countries.

The essence of the European debt crisis is: insolvency! Countries are developing their economies in the form of deficit finances, to put it bluntly:

It is to spend tomorrow's money today and then pay it back with future income. In the past, countries were desperately trying to develop their economies and improve their people's lives, all of which were achieved by issuing a large number of bonds to raise funds. So we can see wave after wave of "borrowing new debt to pay off old debt", when the economic development is in trouble, the future income is reduced, and the debt due cannot be repaid, the crisis comes.

In this process, financial derivatives fuel these debts, and the bubble is gradually amplified, so that it affects the whole body, and when the crisis comes, financial derivatives play the role of killers.

The limitations of the capitalist market economy system are reflected in --- system that only aims at making profits is always flawed and needs to be regulated, and when regulation is not timely or not in place, debt crises are inevitable.

In the short term, the Greek debt crisis will have little direct impact on China's economy. Since China's current fiscal deficit and public debt levels are not only much lower than those of Greece, but also lower than major economies such as Japan, the eurozone, and the United States, it is unlikely that a similar debt crisis will occur in China.

However, the indirect impact of the Greek debt crisis on China cannot be ignored. First, the recent intensification of the Greek debt crisis has led to widespread speculation among investors that it could spread to the rest of the eurozone. As a result, the world's major financial markets have been in turmoil.

The protracted Greek debt crisis will deal a blow to investor confidence in many countries, including China.

At a time when the foundation of the world economic recovery is very fragile, it is particularly necessary to be vigilant against the contagion of the Greek debt crisis, which will have an adverse impact on the recovery of the euro area and even the world economy. If there is another problem in the international market, the shock will be transmitted to China through foreign trade and other factors.

The financial market speculation exposed by the Greek debt crisis once again proves that China's proposals for strengthening international financial regulation and improving global economic governance are very pertinent. If, in the wake of the Greek debt crisis, countries build a consensus and strengthen the supervision of the financial derivatives market and international credit rating agencies, it is expected that the crisis will become an impetus for reform.

The impact of the European debt crisis on China's economy has not been so dramatic. There is an inherently "firewall" between China's financial system and the world, especially Europe. If China's economy goes back and forth in the future, it will be mainly China's own problem, and the correlation between it and the European sovereign debt crisis is not directly related.

The influence of the euro itself is not as great as that of the dollar. Despite several efforts, the euro has not yet reached the status of the world's dominant currency. According to a recent preliminary survey, about 80% of Chinese companies surveyed reported that exports to Europe are mainly settled in US dollars, and have not been affected by the weakening of the euro.

Therefore, although the weakening of the euro has led to the emergence of commodities and the world, it is a bit of an exaggeration to say that it will shake the global financial system.

The core problems of China's economy are still asset bubbles and overcapacity, and the biggest impact that changes in the international economic and financial environment may have on China is the problem of declining exports. If the sovereign debt problems of the five European countries have a limited impact on this, then the impact on China's real economy will also be limited.

1.As a result, consumption in Europe has decreased, Europe is China's largest exporter, exports have decreased, and orders from domestic enterprises have decreased.

2.The international status of the euro has weakened, and China's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced. If Greece and other countries fail to repay their national debts, it will directly affect China's foreign exchange reserves.

The eurozone economy is sluggish, consumption is weakening, market demand for Chinese products is decreasing, and domestic export pressure is increasing.

First, the outbreak of the debt crisis has made the outlook for economic growth in the eurozone even more bleak, and the search for new economic growth is in search of new economic growth.

In the longer term, the eurozone may shift its focus to the outward. This means that being the most important in the eurozone.

China will undoubtedly become the target of protectionism by eurozone countries. We should be positive.

Formulate relevant policy measures to prevent the contraction of exports and the slowdown of economic growth caused by Europe's sovereign debt problems.

Indirect Risks. Second, since there is a significant expectation of RMB appreciation in the market and the interest rate differential between China and the United States is difficult to change in the short term, the outbreak of the European sovereign credit crisis may lead to a larger short-term international capital inflow into China.

This has increased the pressure of domestic write-offs, which has exacerbated excess liquidity and asset bubbles. Therefore, for China, in the face of large-scale international capital flows, China should formulate economic thorns according to its own national conditions.

Stimulate the plan and the corresponding exit strategy to prevent the impulse adjustment of policies, and prevent excessive expansion of production capacity and fiscal deficit.

Excessive inflation and excessively loose monetary policy.

Third, the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis caused the United States to adopt an unprecedented expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, which led to the United States.

Euro assets. However, with the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis, the euro has depreciated significantly against the yen and the dollar, and is likely to depreciate further. This has undoubtedly made it more difficult for China to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.

Fourth, we should take a comprehensive look at China's sovereign debt problem and take it as a warning. Due to the limited and no-local **income**.

stability, in the health care and education to increase spending, the local ** fiscal deficit pressure continues to expand, local.

** The disorderly expansion of debt, once the risk of default appears, will have a negative impact on the recovery of economic entities and economic and social coordination.

Development has an indirect but enormous impact.

The EU is China's largest export market, and China's economic growth is largely dependent on external demand, and if the crisis is not properly resolved, it will inevitably be transmitted to China at the entity level.

There are three strategic levels: First, to strengthen cooperation with the EU, to help at this time is a timely internal rain for the EU, and China's cooperation with the EU is extensive.

The capacity and depth will be greatly improved; Second, to diversify the risk of China's foreign exchange reserves, China's foreign exchange reserves of more than 3 trillion US dollars, if only pegged to the US dollar, are too risky, and will be held hostage by the United States and elbowed by the United States from time to time; Third, confronting the United States, especially the current turmoil in Asia by the United States, which has led to chaos in China's neighborhood, will certainly restrain the United States a lot.

What exactly are your two pathways? From my own point of view, the two approaches are internal and external.

Internally, the countries in crisis themselves find ways to take measures to solve the crisis, such as Greece and Spain, which are currently tightening their finances and reducing their spending to deal with the crisis.

At present, the EU is also adopting various methods to resolve the crisis of its member states, providing them with loans, financial assistance, extending their repayment time, and so on.

The crisis will pass much sooner, both internally and externally, but at the moment, the crisis in Greece and Spain is not over, and it is still in a dangerous period.