Classic Statements of Gambling 10, Classic Statements of Gambling

The story takes place in a village where there are 100 couples, all of whom are authentic logicians (intelligent); There is a peculiar custom in the village: every evening, the men of the village will light a bonfire and sit in a circle for a meeting to talk about their wives. At the beginning of the meeting, if a man has reason to believe that his wife is always chaste towards him, then he praises her virtues in public at the meeting.

If, on the other hand, at any time before the meeting, he found evidence of his wife's infidelity, he would cry and weep at the meeting, and would seek to punish her harshly from the gods. Then, if a wife has ever been unchaste, she and her lover will immediately inform all married men in the village except her husband (bizarre traditional custom). All these traditions and customs are the common knowledge of the villagers.

In fact, every wife has been unfaithful to her husband. So every husband knew that all but his own wives were unchaste, and every man praised his wife at every evening meeting. This went on for many years, until one day a missionary came.

The missionary attended the campfire meeting, and heard every man praising his wife, who stood up and walked to the center of the sitting circle and reminded loudly: "There is a wife in this village who is no longer chaste." For the next 99 nights, the husbands continued to praise their wives, but on the 100th night they all wept and begged the gods to punish their wives.

I know you know.

I know, you know, I know.

I know you know, I know you know.

This one is about common knowledge.

The core of strategy analysis is to learn to empathize and consider the gains and losses from the other party's point of view, so that you can choose your own optimal decision.

If you start out thinking how great you are and have high expectations for you, but your subsequent performance disappoints people again and again, you will only be looked down upon more and more. This contrast effect is worth learning from. The higher the expectations of others, the easier it is to see your mediocrity and find your mistakes; On the contrary, if others do not have high expectations of you, your results will be easy to be discovered and even surprising.

In the game, easily revealing one's own information is tantamount to asking for a dead end.

The amount of information of a person is very limited, and it is necessary to expand ideas and open up the situation through the group in order to gain a firm foothold in the cruel market competition.

In today's society, whoever has hidden information during the game will have the initiative, and if the information is blocked, he will fall into the dilemma of adverse selection.

You have a lot of good news to tell your customers separately; You have a lot of bad news to tell your customers together; You have a big piece of good news and a little bad news to tell the customer together; You have a big bad piece of news and a small piece of good news to tell the customer separately.

Gambling is a game that is destined to lose in the long run.

In management practice, managers must be highly vigilant against "small mistakes" that seem to be individual and slight, but violate the company's core values, and adhere to strict management in accordance with the law. A window with broken glass that is not repaired in time can cause irreparable damage.

The core of the game lies in rational empathy based on holistic thinking, using the benefits of others to speculate on others' strategies (actions), so as to choose the strategy (action) that is most beneficial to oneself.

Learn to empathize, just one step ahead, one step ahead.

To think from someone else's point of view is to think about what will happen to you in the future.

Milan Kundera.