When will the economy recover under the influence of the financial crisis?

The financial crisis turned into a financial turmoil or a financial tsunami that swept the world, and it is estimated that it will take 2-3 years to pass, but it will not return to the way it was before. The United States is such a country whose financial power far exceeds its production capacity, its GDP accounts for 35% of the world's GDP, and the market value of the US capital market accounts for 54% of the global capital market. The U.S. dollar accounts for 72% of global foreign exchange reserves and 58% of global ** settlements.

It is clear that no country has yet been able to shake its hegemony. The financial crisis that is breaking out now is no different in nature from the collapse of '29, it is nothing more than the uncontrolled amplification of credit that can be said to be maliciously amplified, the financial crisis leads to a credit crisis, and further the collapse of confidence, and the market will go to a very irrational level. This is not a localized crisis, and its impact is deeper and longer than any other.

Today's world is different from the past, and it is difficult to directly contribute to the rapid collapse of an empire by means of war, and I believe that the United States will still come out of the crisis this time. Because this is a country that is particularly good at making a fortune in crisis, it was the outbreak of World War I and World War II that quickly led to the strength of the United States. One of the secrets to making a fortune is:

The virtual capital bubble on Wall Street burst, and real assets remained in the United States, and it will be the same this time, and the United States will be the final winner. It is important to know that the fundamental nature of capital is profit-seeking, and this is a fundamental starting point that other countries should not forget when considering the measures taken in this crisis. So far, we can see from a detail that in the case of such a bad crisis, the ban on short sales was lifted, which led to a further plunge on October 9, and when the 29 year of the big stock market crash to rescue the crisis, or when Coolidge was in power, the first thing to start was to conduct a large-scale investigation on the collection of ** short selling transactions, and in this case, short selling is also allowed, which is extremely harmful, which can only show that some interest groups are still trying their best to maintain the original order, and they are still slapping their swollen faces and filling fat. It seems to me that this is no different from the nature of the executive of AIG going on vacation after going bankrupt, and then the SEC was formed.

It can be seen that the forces that maintain the old order are still strong, and the United States is still trying to rebuild a new order as the boss, but it may not be until the end of 2014 that it will come out of this crisis. Among them, it was a real bear market that took three years from December 2011 to November 2014. The current collapse has only just begun.

In 29 years, there was also a 50% history after the rapid **, so don't think that the crisis is over with optimism that the crisis has ended for the first time since the US ** crash lasted**. This is a general correction to the multi-year bull market in the United States. Therefore, the strategy is not to be busy with **, but to find the right opportunity to go short is the big idea.

Remember.

Soros also said that it will take 4 years to develop a country, 4-8 years for ordinary countries, and this time for the whole world, at least 4-8 years, Li Ka-shing also said that it will take this time period to start anew, and in what direction to show the world better! This time the lung sensation is worse than before! India and Vietnam, Bhutan, China, and North Korea are all about the same as China, but our overall hard power has already been lost!

The only way is whether Hong Kong, Japan, Chaozhou, Japan, Singapore, and Shanghai can create a new Asian charm from the new, and from the entertainment, sento, culture, and small technology are most likely to be compared in Asia and complement each other's advantages and make progress together!

The details are as follows:

1. The first financial crisis: The economic adjustment after the great fortune of the First World War was mainly due to the weakening of "external demand", which began in 1920 and ended at the end of 1921, about two years (the decline in industry was from July 1920 to the lowest point in April 1921).

2. The Second Financial Crisis (Great Depression): The Great Depression of the thirties, the core time was from October 1929 to 1933, but it lasted until the beginning of World War II and lasted throughout the thirties.

3. The third financial crisis only occurred in 1948, with a slight adjustment of 10% decline in industrial production.

4. The Fourth Financial Crisis, in 1954, due to the end of the Korean War, which led to a decline in military demand, the gross national product and the value of industrial output fell respectively, which lasted only nine months, and then re-entered the period of upsurge in March 1955. Then there is the strong pull of automobiles and real estate on the economy.

5. The fifth financial crisis, which began in March 1957, was mainly caused by the decline in demand for automobiles and real estate.

6. The Sixth Financial Crisis, from February 1960 to February 1961, saw a decline in industrial production. From January 1961 to October 1969, the economy continued to boom for 106 months, and the GDP growth rate was between 6. The Vietnam War played a great supporting role in this prosperity.

7. During the Seventh Financial Crisis, from October 1969 to March 1972, the economy did not decline sharply, but it was in a state of flux. Throughout the 70s, from the outbreak in December 1973 to the recovery in 1982, the overall performance was "stagflation".

8. The Eighth Financial Crisis, from December 1973 to May 1975, lasted for 18 months.

9. The Ninth Financial Crisis, from April 1979 to November 1982, came back and lasted for 44 months. After the 80s, the U.S. economy began to recover, from December 1982 to the end of 1988, lasting for eight years, inflation was suppressed, employment increased, and the national economy continued to grow.

The "automated production system" in the United States has led to a significant increase in labor productivity. In particular, with the popularization of electronic computers, at the end of 1984, the aircraft and aviation manufacturing industry developed greatly.

10. The 10th financial crisis, from 1989 to 1993, lasted for 5 years, experienced a deterioration stage of three quarters, and then experienced a late stage of the crisis for about two and a half years, showing a w+w shape. In 1993, the U.S. economy began to recover. Japan has been hit the hardest by this crisis.

11. The 11th Financial Crisis (Internet Bubble) lasted for three years from March 2000 to March 2003. Starting with the adjustment of the NASDAQ, there were terrorist attacks in between, and the Enron incident. The prosperity of this period came at the cost of a serious overdraft of consumption and a lack of food.

12. The twelfth financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis + financial crisis + financial crisis.