When will the financial crisis pass, and how long will it last

This financial crisis is going to last a long time! Looking at the outbreak of this financial crisis, it is not so much because of an unexpected event (subprime mortgage crisis) as it is because the US economy has been operating on a platform of high growth rate, low inflation and low unemployment for more than 5 years, ignoring investment risks, which led to the outbreak of the crisis. In fact, I personally think this is inevitable.

First of all, due to the "subprime mortgage crisis", I don't know if you know the specific background, I will introduce it in general: The subprime mortgage crisis, the storm caused by the bankruptcy of subprime mortgage lenders, the forced closure of investments, and the drastic. It has led to a looming illiquidity crisis in the world's major financial markets.

The immediate cause of the storm in the U.S. subprime mortgage market was rising interest rates in the U.S. and the continued cooling of the housing market. (Subprime mortgages are loans made by some lenders to borrowers with poor credit and low incomes.) The rise in interest rates has led to an increase in repayment pressure, and many users with poor credit feel that there is a high pressure to repay, and there is a possibility of default, which will affect the recovery of bank loans.

As the U.S. housing market cools, especially short-term interest rates rise, subprime mortgage repayment rates have also risen sharply, and the repayment burden on homebuyers has increased significantly. At the same time, the continued cooling of the housing market has also made it difficult for home buyers to refinance their homes or mortgage homes. This situation directly led to the failure of borrowers of large batches of mortgage loans to repay their loans on time, which in turn led to the "subprime mortgage crisis".

The source of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that the real estate financial institutions in the United States relaxed lending conditions during the market boom and launched loan products that were loosened before and tightened later. The root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the decline in the housing market caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. As for the scope of this crisis:

First of all, it is the large number of home buyers with low incomes who have been hit. Unable to repay their loans, they will face the difficult situation of having their homes repossessed by banks. Second, in the future, more subprime mortgage lenders will suffer serious losses due to failure to recover their loans, and will even be forced to file for bankruptcy protection.

Finally, the U.S. and Europe will also be hit hard as many of the investments in the U.S. and Europe are heavily derived from subprime mortgages. The "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States will increase the possibility of violent turbulence, thus bringing challenges to the normal global financial order and even world economic growth.

The question is complex. If you're studying finance, you'll know that this discipline is only to guide you to think, not to give you a definite result. Let's start with the root cause of the financial crisis

Historical testimony (do not believe to check the information) that all crises are caused by the stupid mentality of human beings themselves. Probably a bit abstract, to give you a few examples. 1.

In the past, when the Internet was just emerging, all the investment companies in the United States blindly threw money into it. People think that if you invest in that direction, you will make a lot of money--- the result: saturation of the industry, the collapse of a large number of backward companies, and then social unrest.

2.The subprime mortgage crisis is also a testimony to the stupidity of human thought. The following material was told to me by a person who works on Wall Street.

The power that Wall Street wields is a household name. There are many investment firms that realize that their policies will eventually cause an economic crisis. But these policies have made them money.

When the company makes money, the people inside don't do anything superfluous (e.g., why am I making money; What are the vulnerabilities and risks of doing so; If I continue like this next time, will I be ruined? ）。With such a fluke mentality, many people realize that "if we do this again, this financial crisis will happen", they continue to do it.

That's what happens by chance. To repeat my point: all crises are caused by the stupid mentality of human beings themselves.

Analysis Now, the whole world is clamoring --- complaining about this financial crisis; At the same time, people all over the world want to live in peace. Do you often hear things like "the economic crisis is coming, it's hard to make money, let's save it"? If most people have such a stupid mentality, then no one buys things.

No one buys things, so what is there to talk about economic recovery? Let's wait 5 more years. To sum up, the answer you want can only be:

Only when the vast majority of people wake up will they be able to get out of the financial crisis once and for all. Specifically, it is a very, very important time for large corporations, individuals with power, etc., to realize that "guiding the people to have the right mindset" can let this storm pass.

Hehe, in fact, this problem is very complicated, but although it is complicated, it is not that there are no numerical indicators, in fact, you only need to look at a numerical indicator, which is the unemployment rate in the United States, because a very important sign of economic recovery is the increase in employment, so if the unemployment rate in the United States falls for several months in a row, it means that the economic crisis is ending. Sadly, there is no end in sight.

2 5 years.

The financial crisis refers to the crisis of financial assets, financial institutions, and financial markets, which is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, increased unemployment, and a general economic depression in society, and sometimes, Musk expressed a relatively pessimistic view of the economic situation in 2022 under a tweet: "**The macroeconomy is challenging, and my intuition is that the Great Recession will be around the spring or summer of 2022, but no later than 2023". Therefore, the financial crisis lasted for about 2 5 years, and there is another important dimension that has not been taken into account about the trend of this year, that is, the stock currency is locked in the property market, but the accumulation of incremental currency is slow, and it cannot cover the new chips of A-shares in the short term (IPO continues to increase).

2022 is a year for 99% of people to endure.

The financial crisis was 2008.

The financial crisis occurred on 15 September 2008. The global financial crisis, also known as the world financial crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis, and the credit crisis, refers to the crisis of global financial assets or financial institutions or financial markets.

Specifically, it is manifested in the fact that global financial assets are **substantially** or financial institutions are failing or on the verge of failure, or a financial market such as ** or bond market**, etc. For example, the financial crisis of 1930, which triggered the Great Depression in the West, and the financial crisis, which erupted on September 15, 2008, triggered the global economic crisis.

Introduction

As early as April 2007, the bankruptcy of New Century Financial Corporation, the second-largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, exposed the risk of subprime mortgage bonds; Beginning in August 2007, the Fed reacted by injecting liquidity into the financial system to increase market confidence, and the United States** was able to maintain its high levels, which does not seem to be very bad.

However, in August 2008, the two major U.S. mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, lost a lot of money in the stock prices of the two largest mortgage companies. The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve were forced to take over the "two houses" in order to show their determination to deal with the crisis.