When will the renminbi appreciate?

From the perspective of the logic and process of China's exchange rate decision-making, China, as an economic power, is more concerned about promoting the internal and external equilibrium of China's economy and controlling the risk of foreign exchange rate through the active adjustment of the exchange rate and the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism. If some politicians in the United States only consider their own interests one-sidedly and blindly exert pressure to promote the appreciation of the renminbi, a strong feeling of resistance and antipathy may arise in China's economic circles, and this antipathy may make economic policymakers unwilling to adopt measures for appreciation when China's economy also needs a certain degree of appreciation.

As far as China is concerned, in the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate system, it is time to abandon the "fear of floating" and "fear of appreciation" that emerging markets may often encounter, and actively promote reforms to create conditions for the increase in the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and the moderate revaluation of the RMB exchange rate level when it is "unexpected". Rashly increasing the range of the RMB exchange rate and the revaluation of the exchange rate when some basic market conditions are not available may have a significant impact on China's economy, which is not only not conducive to the sustained and stable growth of China's economy, but will also inevitably form a shock to the global market.

In fact, a relatively well-developed foreign exchange market is one of the foundations for market-oriented balance of payments adjustment.

One of the foundations for the development of the foreign exchange market is to enable commercial banks and enterprises to become real market players. For enterprises, the main thing is to improve the system of compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales, enhance the autonomy of enterprises to control foreign exchange, and make enterprises the real subject of foreign exchange use; One of the most critical systems should be the market maker system (the so-called "market maker" usually refers to the exchange rate that other participants in the foreign exchange market usually ask the powerful and reputable commercial banks about the exchange rate they can provide, and the commercial banks acting as market makers are usually willing to bear exchange rate risks and engage in transactions), making China's foreign exchange market a diversified and decentralized market on the basis of the market maker system. In addition, the development of foreign exchange market risk management tools is an important factor, the expansion of the foreign exchange market is also an important part of the development of the foreign exchange market, the current Chinese foreign exchange market business subjects are homogeneous, in the supply and demand of foreign exchange is easy to form the same direction of fluctuations, and a relatively stable foreign exchange market needs the diversification of the main body of trading.

Although we cannot be sure when China will adjust its exchange rate, we can at least be sure that the adjustment of the renminbi exchange rate is mainly decided on the basis of taking into account the internal and external equilibrium of economic operation, and at the same time, China will share the responsibility of international economic policy coordination with other countries within its capabilities.

For now:

Almost all analysts point out that further appreciation of the yuan will be the trend, it is only a matter of time and magnitude. Appreciation is the general trend. On October 26, the central bank released the opinion of Deputy Governor Wu Xiaoling, pointing out"China's economy continues to improve, so in the long run, the appreciation of the renminbi will be a long-term trend, but it does not mean that the renminbi will continue to appreciate.

Due to the many uncertainties in this process, the path of appreciation will be 'tortuous', and the market, financial institutions and enterprises will need to gradually adapt. "

According to the analysis of experts, the renminbi will probably appreciate by about 5% this year.

The impact of RMB appreciation.

Positive impact Cheaper imports.

Larger foreign investment and ** spending.

Curbing inflation.

Reduction of external debt obligations.

Appreciation will force China's economy to become more productive.

Negative impact: A hard landing for economic growth in immature markets.

It is not conducive to hedging enterprises.

Increase the value of non-performing credit in the banking system.

Hot money will increase market volatility.

The renminbi can appreciate, but the appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily beneficial, for example, the depreciation of the dollar and the renminbi can appreciate. However, China is the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves of the US dollar, and the US dollar has depreciated, is the US dollar still worth in our hands?

Appreciation doesn't seem to do us any good! Lao Mei is forcing China to appreciate every day.

Now the renminbi has been appreciating.

The renminbi has been appreciating.

The renminbi appreciated.

It is relative to other currencies, which is the purchasing power of the renminbi.

Intensifier. The reason for the renminbi's appreciation is due to internal dynamics in China's economic system and external pressures. Internal influencing factors include the balance of payments.

The state of foreign exchange reserves, the state of prices and inflation, the state of economic growth and the level of interest rates. In 2012, the exchange rate of the renminbi was in a state of flux, and by October 15, 2012, the spot exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar hit a new high since 1993.