When is the peak of pig prices in 2022?

According to the monitoring of 500 county bazaars and collection points across the country, in the third week of May (the collection date is May 18), pig products, poultry products, corn, soybean meal, broiler compound feed, beef and mutton, fresh milk ** declined, fattening pig compound feed, laying hen compound feed ** flat.

Hog products**. The national average of piglets is ** yuan kg, compared with the previous week, a year-on-year decrease. Piglets in 29 monitoring provinces across the country.

The average piglet in central China is higher, which is yuan kg; In the southwest, it is lower, at the yuan kilogram. The national average of live pigs is more than the previous week, a year-on-year decrease. Jilin, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Guangdong and other 29 provinces live pigs, Hainan ** declined.

The average number of live pigs in South China is higher, which is yuan kilograms; In the northwest, it is lower, at the yuan kilogram. The national average of pork is ** yuan kilogram, compared with the previous week, a year-on-year decrease. Jilin, Hubei, Guangdong, Ningxia, Chongqing and other 26 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) pork ****, Hainan, Guizhou, Zhejiang and other 3 provinces ** declined.

The average pork in South China is higher, which is yuan kilograms; In the northeast, it is lower, at the yuan kilogram.

Poultry products**. The national average of eggs is ** yuan per kilogram, compared with the previous week **, and the same period last year. Hebei, Liaoning and other 10 major producing provinces egg average ** yuan kilogram, compared with the previous week, year-on-year.

The national average of chicken meat is ** yuan kg, compared with the previous week**, year-on-year**. The average number of commercial egg chicks was more than the previous week, a year-on-year decrease. The average number of commercial broiler chicks was **yuan, compared with the previous week**, a year-on-year decrease.

Mutton**. The national average of ** yuan per kilogram of beef, down from the previous week and year-on-year. Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong and Henan and other major producing provinces have an average of ** yuan kilogram of beef, down from the previous week.

The national average of ** yuan per kilogram of mutton decreased from the previous week and decreased year-on-year. Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan and Xinjiang and other major producing provinces (regions) have an average of ** yuan kg of mutton, down from the previous week.

Raw milk**. Inner Mongolia, Hebei and other 10 major producing provinces (regions) of fresh milk average ** yuan kilogram, down from the previous week, down year-on-year.

Fodder**. The national average of ** yuan per kilogram of corn was the same as that of the previous week. The average corn in the three northeastern provinces of the main producing areas was yuan kilograms, the same as the previous week.

The main sales area of Guangdong Province corn ** yuan kilogram, than the previous week **. The national average of soybean meal is ** yuan kg, compared with the previous week **, year-on-year**. The average compound feed of fattening pigs was ** yuan kg, which was the same as the previous week and ** year-on-year.

The average of broiler compound feed is ** yuan kg, compared with the previous week **, compared with the same period last year**. The average compound feed for laying hens was ** yuan kg, the same as the previous week, and the same period last year.

At present, pig prices stopped falling and rising, in the domestic pig market, pig prices rose highlight, yesterday in Northeast China, North China, pig prices took the lead in rising, and with the weakening of the slaughter sentiment at the breeding end, pigs rose against the trend! Among them, in the northern region, the pig is generally more than 1 yuan, among them, the northwest is Shaanxi, Gansu and Gansu, in North China and the northeast, the pig price continues, the slaughterhouse generally rises above 7 yuan, and in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and other places, the pig price even rises to yuanjin!

In the southern market, pig prices are sideways, southwest and south China are stable, central and east China markets, pig prices are stable and strong, and the market is generally yuan, among them, the pig price is steady, in Zhejiang, Fujian, Shanghai, pig prices have gradually risen to yuan jin, and in the two lakes market, pig prices have also risen to yuan jin, and in South China and Guangzhou, pig prices remain in yuan jin!

The high point of pig prices in 2023 is from the end of April to the beginning of May.

There are four direct reasons for the rapid price of pigs:

1. Some group scale farms took the initiative to shrink and raise prices, which drove the reluctance to sell, and the difficulty of purchasing slaughtering enterprises increased.

2. The epidemic has led to an increase in the hoarding of goods by consumers in many places, and some slaughtering companies have frozen products divided into rotten warehouses.

3. Continuous collection and storage, as well as the first data show that the production capacity of Li slag leakage Liang Bi continued to be reduced, which boosted market confidence.

4. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has been improved, and at the same time, it has entered the peak period of seasonal piglet filling. Pig prices rose from a minimum of 12 pieces per kilogram 1 to 14 pieces per kilogram for 10 consecutive days in April**.

Pig prices will be around August to September 2023.

The pig ** in 2023 will definitely be better than in 2022, because the pig-to-food ratio is around 6:1 this year and around 7:1 next year.

In 2021, the pig ** from January to May was declining, and it was only in June that there was a significant **, and it peaked around August to September, and then began to decline.

From 2002 to 2022, the hog market went through 5 pig cycles, each of which lasted about 4 years. This round of "pig cycle" has begun and will not end next year, and the specific time needs to be further observed.

For farmers, there are two things that can be done, the first is to seize this advantage, optimize the population structure, and do a good job in planning and layout. According to the pig growth cycle, the cycle from gilts to commercial pigs is between 13 and 14 months.

That is to say, from September to October 2022, the binary gilts will be replenished, corresponding to the slaughter of pigs around November 2023, just entering the fourth quarter into the traditional consumption season of pickled meat and enema.

What are the effects of pork ****:

1. China's pork demand is very large, from official data show that China's pork gap this year is as high as 9.23 million tons, and the pig gap will climb to 12.37 million tons.

Among them, China's import volume is as high as more than 3 million tons, so affected by African swine fever, the demand gap has widened, and pork ** has risen significantly.

2. The rise in pork prices will affect some people to eat less or not eat pork, and invisibly transfer to consume other meats, which will cause the future of chicken, beef and various meats to be synchronized, so in the second half of the year, many people will say that they can't afford to eat meat, which should be a normal phenomenon.

However, we should rest assured that the relevant departments will definitely work hard to balance prices, because the **overall level** will become inflation, which will seriously damage the healthy development of the economy, and no one wants to see such a situation.