2022 will usher in the peak period of retirement, what are the challenges and opportunities brought

The increase in the proportion of the elderly population will lead to an urgent increase in employment pressure, housing pressure, and pension pressure, and the decline of many young labor force is also a very serious livelihood problem.

Opportunity: Conducive to the development of tourism. First of all, the elderly have an increased demand for spiritual consumption and generally have a desire to travel, and secondly, the elderly have a long leisure time, are emotionally lonely, eager for communication and comfort, and have potential travel motivations.

Challenge: An ageing population equates to greater social pressures, more people receiving social security benefits, and a widening funding gap. ”

2022 will usher in the peak retirement period, and what challenges and opportunities will be brought by the rising proportion of the aging population? In fact, our country has always attached great importance to the problem of aging, because many young people are unwilling to have a second or third child, so many families are only children, so some couples even have to raise 4 old children, their own economic pressure is very great, and they have to support the elderly, so they will live very hard, so how should these aging population be solved, people with brains will see a lot of opportunities at this time. <>

Because the aging is more serious, so the future pension is a big problem, I think this time can consider opening a nursing home, because most people will choose to go to the nursing home after retirement, children simply do not have the energy to take care of so many old people, so they can only use their pension to live in the nursing home, because at least the nursing home still has someone to take care of them to eat and drink, and there are people to take care of them, so it also reduces a lot of burden on the children, and China's population is too much, However, the aging population is getting more and more serious, so this problem will be faced by many young people in the future, if the economic conditions are good, you can ask a nanny to come back to take care of your parents, but if you don't have the conditions, you can only send them to a nursing home to take care of them, because they simply don't have time to take care of their parents at home. <>

The problem of aging housing is becoming more and more important by the state, especially the kind of elderly people who live alone, because the elderly who live alone are actually very dangerous old people, if they can't touch it, the consequences are very serious, but there are many old people who are not willing to live with their children, so they can only go back to the countryside to live, or live in nursing homes, because they simply do not have so much energy to take care of their parents, the elderly population in China is relatively large, and the growth rate is very fast, Therefore, it is necessary to build houses, communities, and houses that are more suitable for the elderly. <>

Population aging is an important trend of China's social development and an important national condition in the long term. On the challenge side, population ageing reduces the working population and increases the burden on social security. But at the same time, it should also be noted that aging has promoted the development of the silver economy, increased the consumption of elderly services and technological progress.

It is worth mentioning that among the elderly population, the elderly aged 60 to 69 account for more than 50%, and the potential to exert residual heat is greater.

For specific industries, first of all, we believe that the real estate industry will face greater downward pressure in the next decade. The real estate boom caused by urbanization is slowing, and the pressures of an aging population are increasing day by day. Second, the structure of Chinese population will continue to undergo fundamental changes, high labor costs are a foregone conclusion, and labor-intensive industries will be forced to transform or upgrade to technology-intensive industries.

Thirdly, the total number of elderly people in China is increasing rapidly, and the prevalence rate of the elderly is also continuing to rise, the demand for health services has increased significantly, and the pharmaceutical industry has broad prospects. At the same time, the existing medical institution system will be under greater flow pressure, so private chain hospitals will undoubtedly become an important supplementary force in primary medical institutions.

Population aging is an important trend of social development, and it is also the basic national condition of China for a long period of time in the future, which is both a challenge and an opportunity. For example, the aging of the population will reduce the supply of labor, increase the burden of family pension and the pressure on the supply of basic public services. At the same time, it should also be noted that the aging of the population has promoted the development of the "silver economy", expanded the consumption of products and services for the elderly, and is also conducive to promoting technological progress.

This opens up some new opportunities. Moreover, in China's population aged 60 and above, the 60-69 years old elderly population accounts for most of these young elderly people have the advantages of knowledge, experience and skills, and their physical condition is okay, and they have great potential to play a role in residual heat.

Ning Jizhe stressed that the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to implement the national strategy of actively responding to the aging of the population, and to take the response to the aging of the population as a major strategic task related to the overall situation in the current and future periods. Next, we need to develop and make good use of the census data, carefully study the census data, carry out in-depth analysis, and effectively provide statistical information support for the scientific formulation of policies.

First of all, it affects economic growth. The aging population directly leads to a decrease in labor supply, and the potential economic growth rate is facing downward pressure. In particular, the decline or even disappearance of the comparative advantage of low labor costs formed by the demographic dividend will significantly affect the export profits of China's manufacturing industry.

In addition, the aging population structure is aging, and the change of the residents' savings rate thus presents an inverted U-shaped shape of first increasing and then falling, because the replacement rate of retirement pensions will decline faster, which will eventually lead to a decline in the savings rate of the whole society, affecting the formation of social capital, and will also reduce consumption power, resulting in insufficient demand. Here, the government is facing a double squeeze of slowing income and increasing social security expenditures such as pension and medical care, which will seriously restrict the ability to invest between and indirectly guide investment.

Second, it will affect structural adjustment. To accomplish the tasks of reducing overcapacity, eliminating backward production capacity, and developing modern service industries, it is necessary to adjust the structure of the labor force and improve the quality of the labor force. Logically speaking, our enterprises are more inclined to invest in young employees and train young people, and the aging will make the labor structure aging, and the willingness of enterprises to improve human capital will be reduced, which will affect industrial transformation and upgrading.

Thirdly, it affects the innovation drive. Under the new normal, it is the only way to shift from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven. However, from the supply side, economic growth research shows that the aging of the population and labor force affects social vitality and significantly weakens the innovation and creativity ability of the whole society.

From the demand side, consumption will become more and more important to economic growth, and the aging of the population may not be conducive to the application and promotion of new products and technologies in the consumer field.

In addition, the aging population also brings more challenges to the new normal, such as the increase in the elderly population will put great pressure on the basic security, and the public finance will increase the expenditure on basic pensions, pensions, insurance premium subsidies and medical care; For example, the aging of the population changes the structure and size of the family, the dependency ratio rises, and the family's pension function is weakened.

The first is the real estate sector. For the current post-70s and 80s, that is, the elderly in more than 20 years, their housing needs will be completely different from their parents. Mature communities, close to business districts, subways and hospitals, and children living close to but not necessarily under the same roof, may be the housing needs of the "new generation of seniors".

It also means that the rental market, which is located on the outskirts of the city or at the junction of urban and rural areas, and is mainly for young single workers, is likely to face greater downside risks.

The second is the elderly care industry. From the experience of the United States and Europe, it is normal for the elderly to retire and enter nursing homes and grow old slowly with other elderly people. This kind of elderly care is still relatively rare in China, firstly, it is a scarce resource that is more professional and can make most families affordable, and it is often difficult to find a bed.

Second, traditional Chinese culture is more in favor of the group living of children and grandchildren around the knee and four generations in the same house, so many elderly people are reluctant to move to nursing homes. But if in another 20 years, when the current 70s and 80s get older, there is a chance that the situation will change. In particular, if they have a small number of children, are busy with work and childcare, and the elderly themselves have a certain financial ability and can afford a nursing home with a better environment and services, there may be a stronger demand for such a nursing home.

Again, the medical and biotechnology industries. In the "14th Five-Year Plan", gene and biotechnology, clinical medicine and health are listed in the seven frontier research areas of science and technology at the same time, showing that the company attaches great importance to and supports resources in these two fields. According to the statistics of the U.S. Medicare and Assistance Services Center, the medical expenses of people between the ages of 65 and 84 are about twice that of middle-aged people between the ages of 45 and 64.

The medical expenses of the elderly aged 85 and above have doubled compared with the elderly between the ages of 65 and 84, and are almost four times that of the middle-aged people aged 45 to 64. That is, as we get older and have a longer life expectancy, spending on medical care and anti-aging is almost rigid and will increase exponentially with age. Current investment in the sector may not be enough to cope with the explosion of demand that is likely to occur in the coming decades.

Demographic change in a society is slow and will not happen overnight. But at the same time, the trend of demographic change has a strong inertia, and it is difficult to reverse it with external forces. Our immediate neighbor, Japan, is a living example of this.

Demographic changes can have a profound impact on every aspect of our lives. The author has only briefly listed a few examples above, but their impact is far beyond these areas. Rather than worrying about the aging that will come sooner or later, it is better to prepare for a rainy day, calmly analyze the possible impact, and respond to this great change that will come sooner or later with a positive and rational attitude.

According to statistics, from December 31, 2004 to July 17, 2019, among the ten first-level industries in the CSI All-Index Index, the first place in the range increase list was All-Index Consumption, with a cumulative increase of **1306%; In second place is All-Index Pharmaceutical, with a cumulative increase of 815%. The pharmaceutical industry has both defensive and growth attributes, the industry demand is less affected by the economic cycle, and has long-term growth potential in the future in the context of deepening population aging and consumption upgrading, and the investment value is valued by the market.

In the post-epidemic era, after the rapid increase in the valuation of pharmaceuticals, in the context of aging, pharmaceuticals are expected to become a long-term cattle industry. Although optimistic about the development prospects of the industry, it is not a simple matter for ordinary investors to study medicine, and the professional knowledge of the pharmaceutical and health industry is obscure, forming a high research barrier.

Xinhu Wealth adheres to the vision of "being the best private bank", and has gone through the strict screening of the "three checks and two sessions" risk control system to provide high-net-worth customers with top manager products in the pharmaceutical industry, and grasp the development period of the pharmaceutical industry in the next ten years.

What are the challenges and opportunities brought by the aging of the population, first of all, it will be considered that the challenges brought by the aging of the population are still relatively large, especially the pressure of life. Jin Yu's words are that the development of science and technology must keep up, saying that the decrease in labor force and the increase in vacuole stickiness are caused by this social pressure.

The challenge is that there will be less labor in society. At the same time, the number of pensioners will increase. A young person will correspond to raising an old man, and the overall pressure on society is greater. The old pension system is difficult to maintain and will eventually be broken.

The continuation is that the pension industry will develop substantially. Senior housing and community care will become an important economic growth point in the future. The corresponding health care products and medical services for the elderly will also have a large gap in the future, which can drive the corresponding new economic model.

The challenges brought by the aging of the population are great, and the funeral industry and the elderly pension industry are a blessing, so that the funeral industry is very tired, and the pension industry will flourish. But the pick is also very large, because there are very few young people, so young people are under a lot of pressure.

At the same time, the development prospects of the pension industry are very large, and the production efficiency is further improved, and the individual creates higher value, which are all opportunities.

An ageing population means that the pressure on society is increasing, and the number of people receiving social security benefits will increase, and the funding gap will become larger and larger, and the opportunity is that they have a wealth of experience.

The challenges brought about by the aging of the population, that is, the current demographic dividend has been insufficient, mainly the lack of labor and the lack of consumer market, as for the opportunity, that is, the elderly pension services and the like, can better get more customers.

Recognizing ageing is both an opportunity and a challenge. It should be that opportunities and challenges coexist. Population ageing comes first. There will be a certain amount of pressure. But it can also promote the overall development of the economy. Increase inputs. Innovate management methods.