What will be the price of hogs in the next two years? Is pig price likely to rise in the next 3 year

Since last year, the pig has begun, with the highest peak of more than 20 yuan a catty, and the pork has dared to compare with the price of beef and mutton, once reaching 40 yuan a catty.

So what about pig prices in the next two years? From a personal point of view, the pig price is generally slow, so although the pig price will not be as high as this year in the next two years, compared with previous years, the pig price is still in a higher position, as a self-breeding farmer is still profitable.

Pigs will continue, but will remain at a higher level.

First of all, the recovery of the hog herd is a slow and dynamic growth process.

To put it bluntly, the pig herd will gradually and slowly increase, rather than reaching a certain saturation point overnight. As far as the current form of pig inventory is concerned, the pig inventory has reached a month-on-month increase in July and August.

As the number of sows that can reproduce continues to increase, the pig herd has entered a positive cycle, and the number of pigs in the herd is increasing, and then the number of pigs slaughtered will also increase, and there are more and more pork on the market, and pork ** is slowly declining.

It is estimated that the number of live pigs in next year can reach the level of the same period in previous years. At that time, farmers will make appropriate choices according to the number of pigs in the market** and the number of herds, and decide whether to continue to keep sows or expand the herd.

Therefore, the pig will continue to be stable for a period of time, rather than continue to be always**, and will make a choice based on the overall inventory at that time.

Second, don't ignore the impact of the continued presence of non-plague on farms.

The root cause of this pig price ** is the decline in the number of live pigs caused by non-wen. Until now, the vaccine is still in the process of being developed, and although there is news that it will be successfully launched next year, it is still uncertain.

For some farmers, the impact is still great, and a large number of pigs were eliminated last year.

Therefore, in the next two years, the pig ** will be gradual according to the normal trend, but it is not excluded that the number of pigs will decline due to non-wen, so that the pig price will be ** again.

A large amount of reserve meat is put in order to limit the price of pigs too fast**.

Since the beginning of the year, the pace of the relevant departments to put meat in reserve has never stopped. As of September, more than 500,000 tons of meat have been put into reserve this year.

Although reserve meat will not fundamentally reduce the quality of pork in the market, every time it is put on the market, it is to stabilize the market and curb the price of meat too fast. Therefore, in the next two years, the release of reserve meat will continue, and pork **** will become more and more weak, and the overall meat will be slow.

With the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for pork will not decrease, and the pigs on the farm can meet the needs of people, and the pork may remain at about 20 yuan a catty.

In the next two years, pigs will continue to rise, because the pig breeding industry has entered a large amount of capital, and the crazy pig raising driven by capital will inevitably lead to pig prices.

It may change often, because there are many changes in the market, and it is not very stable.

Some experts believe that the main reason for the lack of pigs and the reappearance of pig prices is that "lack of pigs is not lack of meat", affected by factors such as the African swine fever epidemic, according to the relevant **, the number of pigs in the current herd is only about 60% of the normal pig herd, according to **, in 2019, China's pork gap is at least 5 million tons. It can be said that there is an extreme shortage of pigs, but because of the influence of factors such as imported pork from slaughtering enterprises and pork inventory in cold storage of slaughtering enterprises, there is not a lot of pork in the hands of slaughtering enterprises now, or a lot.

Some experts believe that the pig price in 2020 can refer to the pig price in 2016 and 2017, and the duration of the pig cycle will be longer than in 2016, because of the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, large-scale pig farms dare not expand aggressively, and even reduce the scale, and rural free-range farmers are constantly withdrawing. All the hogs in the next 3 years will definitely be, and will continue to be at a high level for a long time. As for the magnitude of **, there have been experts before**2019 pigs** is likely to exceed the most **11 yuan in 2016, whether it can reach 11 yuan, when it will reach 11 yuan, let's wait and see.

Summary. Hello, dear, the pig price in February 2023 will be higher than the pig price in January, the pig price in March will be higher than the ** in February, the ** in April will be higher than the ** in March, and the ** in May will be higher than the ** in April, that is, the pig price in 2023 will be better than the pig price in a month.

You are good at covering, dear, the pig price in February 2023 will be higher than the pig price in January, the pig price in March will be higher than the pig price in February, the first in April will be higher than the one in March, and the first pig price in May will be higher than the filial piety in April, that is, the pig price in 2023 will be better than the pig price in one month.

The reasons are as follows: 1. The pig production capacity in 2023 has not yet recovered to the previous high; 2, the overall weight of the slaughter in 2023 will be smaller than that in 2022, and last year's big pigs lost a lot of money, so the possibility of raising big pigs this year is very small, 3, this year's consumption will be better than last year, this year's Spring Festival Yanshou floating population has doubled compared with the year of going to the jujube stall, and the consumption of pork will be better and better in the future. 4. The imported pork in 2023 will be about 200 tons, which is not very much pressure on domestic pig prices.

Summary. Dear, I'm honored to have your question The information that the teacher found for you here is: What is the price of pigs in the future:

The future of pig prices is now, pig prices in various parts of the country continue to rise, whether it is piglets or fat pigs are more ideal, most places of fat pigs have crossed the production cost line, now piglets, fat pigs gradually out of the trough, it seems that the pig cycle has ended into a new cycle, according to the recent changes in pig prices, I think it has now begun to enter a new pig cycle, pigs will enter the dividend period of several years of pig raising, so pig prices continue It's normal. According to the law of the pig cycle, in the early stage of the pig cycle, the price of pork will rise, and the piglets will rise sharply, that is, pig breeding has entered the dividend period, which can only be encountered once in a few years, and the profit of pig raising is relatively high during the pig bonus period, and the profit is unconventional, such as the beginning of the pig ** cycle in 2019, the profit of breeding a fat pig exceeds 1,500 yuan, and the annual income of breeding a sows with a farrowing is more than 20,000 yuan. In the pig bonus period, the pig industry is a profiteering industry.

Dear, I'm honored to have your question The teacher here gives you the information is: how about the future pig price: the future pig price is now, the pig price in various parts of the country continues to rise, whether it is piglets or fat pigs are more ideal, most of the fat pigs have crossed the production cost line, the current piglets, Zhizheng fat pigs are gradually out of the trough, it seems that the pig cycle has ended and entered a new price disturbance songge cycle, according to the recent changes in the price of Li wild pigs, I think that now we have begun to enter a new pig cycle, and pig breeding will enter the dividend period of pig raising once every few years, so it is normal for pig prices to continue to be **.

According to the law of the pig cycle, in the early stage of the pig cycle, the price of pork will rise, and the piglets will rise sharply, that is, pig breeding has entered the dividend period, which can only be encountered once in a few years, and the profit of pig raising is relatively high during the pig bonus period, and the profit is unconventional, such as the beginning of the pig ** cycle in 2019, the profit of breeding a fat pig exceeds 1,500 yuan, and the annual income of breeding a sows with a farrowing is more than 20,000 yuan. In the pig bonus period, the pig industry is a profiteering industry.

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In 020, the overall high level of the national pig ** belongs to the top cycle stage of the pig cycle, and the pig ** in 2021 will decline significantly, in the downward stage of the cycle, and the trend is seasonally significant.

According to Zhuochuang information data, the highest point of monitoring was the kilogram on January 14, a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decrease. The lowest point was October 8 kg, a month-on-month decline, a year-on-year decline, and a decline from the highest point of the year. In the early stage, the pig source was relatively scarce, and the pig ** was running at a high level at the beginning of 2021, and then the pig was too sufficient due to the active replenishment of the breeding end, which led to the pig price gradually bottoming out in October.

As of December 27, 2021, the average price of live pigs in the country is yuankg, a month-on-month decrease, a year-on-year decline, and the trend of live pigs in previous years is opposite. The main reason is that the market pig source is still abundant, and the demand is difficult to support. So what about the specific supply and demand?

2.The number of fertile sows increased to a high level and fell.

From the point of view, according to the data of 166 sample enterprises of Zhuochuang Information monitoring the breeding sows, the number of breeding sows continued to increase in the first half of 2021, and the peak of 10,000 sows in July as shown in Figure 2 was reached, a year-on-year increase compared with the beginning of the year. With the beginning of the peak after July, the reaction to the breeding end or a slight panic in the mood, and accelerate the process of sow elimination. As of the end of November 2021, the number of fertile sows has reached about 10,000 heads, a decrease from the highest point in 2021, and an increase from January at the beginning of the year.

Zhuochuang Information calculates based on the pig cycle and the monitoring and inventory of sows that can reproduce, or it will reach the low-lying area of the pig ** from April to May 2022. What is the demand?

3.The trend of pig operating rate is upward.

From the demand side, the national operating rate in 2021 showed a slight upward trend after the retreat, and the highest point in the first half of the year appeared on February 8 (the 27th day of the lunar calendar), with a month-on-month increase, and the stocking sentiment before the Spring Festival boosted the national pig market. Subsequently, the operating rate showed a straight downward trend, and the lowest point was on February 18 (the seventh day of the first lunar month), and the operating rate reached a higher point of decline and a month-on-month decline, reflecting the gradual weakening of market demand after being consumed in advance. As of December 24, the operating rate reached a high point of decline, a year-on-year increase, as the weather cools down and the demand for pickles is boosted, demand may gradually improve.

However, due to the advance of the Spring Festival this year, the demand may be overdrawn in advance, and Zhuochuang Information expects that the operating rate in January 2022 may fall after ****.

The year or the pig cycle bottoms out.

On the whole, according to the data of Zhuochuang Information Monitoring and Breeding Sow Inventory, the first half of 2022 is still relatively sufficient. In 2022, the low point of pig ** leads to the operating rate There is still room for improvement, although the demand is boosted compared with previous years, it is difficult to change the status quo that supply exceeds demand. Zhuochuang Information expects that the first half of the pig ** or continue the downward trend, according to the 2021 sow inventory response and 10-month growth cycle projection, or to May 2022 after the production capacity gradually reduced, the second half of the year into the peak consumption season of live pigs or gradually rebound.

1. From today's point of view, the downward pressure on pig prices in recent times is still relatively large, especially at the moment in the traditional off-season of meat consumption, but the state will also launch corresponding moves to help farmers reduce losses.

So how much is the price of pork in 2022 at this moment? How much is the price of pork in 2022? Fragrant Pig:

Xinle City, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, fragrant pig 23 yuan per catty; Zhengding County, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, fragrant pig yuan per catty; Wu'an City, Handan City, Hebei Province, fragrant pig 17 yuan per catty; Yinzhou District, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, fragrant pig 12 yuan per catty; Linquan County, Fuyang City, Anhui Province, fragrant pig 12 yuan per catty; Luoyuan County, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, fragrant pig 12 yuan a catty; Zhouning County, Ningde City, Fujian Province, fragrant pig 14 yuan catty, etc.

Black pig: Lixian County, Baoding City, Hebei Province, black pig yuan one catty; Black pig in Xuanhua District, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province is 20 yuan per catty; Hengshui City, Hebei Province, Wuqiang County, black pig yuan per catty; Inner Mongolia Tongliao City Horqin Left Wing Central Banner Black Pig 12 yuan a catty; Linkou County, Mudanjiang City, Heilongjiang Province, black pig 15 yuan a catty; Shuyang County, Suqian City, Jiangsu Province, black pig 30 yuan a catty; Yinzhou District, Ningbo City, Zhejiang, black pig 13 yuan a catty, etc.

Landrace pig: Kangbao County, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, Changbai pig 8 yuan a catty; Quannan County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, Changbai pig yuan one catty; Ju County, Rizhao City, Shandong Province, Changbai pig yuan one catty; Yinan County, Linyi City, Shandong Province, Changbai pig 14 yuan a catty; Shandong Linyi City, Luozhuang District, Changbai pig 7 yuan per catty; Lianjiang City, Guangdong Province, mayor of Lianjiang, white pig yuan per catty; Bobai County, Yulin City, Guangxi Province, Changbai pig yuan per catty; Guizhou Bijie City, Generous County, Changbai pig yuan per catty; Weining Yi Hui and Miao Autonomous County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province, Changbai pig yuan per catty, etc.

Sanyuan pig: Yongjia County, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, Sanyuan pig yuan one catty; Donggang District, Rizhao City, Shandong Province, three-yuan pig 18 yuan a catty; Yishui County, Linyi City, Shandong Province, three yuan pig yuan per catty; Nanhai District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Sanyuan pig 20 yuan a catty; Huilai County, Jieyang City, Guangdong Province, three-yuan pig 12 yuan a catty; Wushan County, Chongqing City, three yuan pig yuan one catty; Weining Yi Hui and Miao Autonomous County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province, Sanyuan pig yuan, one catty, etc. Prepare.