What is the trend of the real estate market in the second half of 2012?

According to the "Economic Half Hour" report, on the trend of housing prices next year, ** TV station conducted a survey of 100 economists and entrepreneurs at the 12th China Economic Person of the Year Awards Gala on December 12. The survey results show that 69% of people believe that the trend of real estate in 2012 will be a slight downward trend, 11% believe that there will be a large downward trend, and a small number of people believe that when the macro policy changes, there will be **.

The Economic Half Hour report pointed out that from the survey data, it can be seen that the experts and entrepreneurs surveyed generally believe that housing prices will generally decline in 2012, but the decline is not large.

In an interview with the People's Daily Financial Reporter, the deputy director of the Real Estate Economic Research Center of Chinese University said that the real estate market will not decline very much next year, mainly for two reasons: First, if the real estate market has big ups and downs, it will not play a standardized and perfect role in the development of the industry, and it will affect the overall development of China's economy to a considerable extent. Second, compared with western developed countries, China is in the process of urbanization, and the role of rigid demand in supporting the market will also lead to the real estate market will not be too cold.

Gu Yunchang, vice president of the China Real Estate and Housing Research Association, believes that from now until the first quarter of 2012, it should be a low point in housing prices. He pointed out that China's main goal this year is to curb inflation, and if the goal is to maintain growth in the future, people's expectations will change, and the market will change accordingly.

Nie Meisheng, president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that judging from the current development situation, it is not a "turning point". He said that our regulatory goal is to make real estate develop steadily, and the current attitude is not to increase pressure and not relax, and this state will continue in the first quarter of 2012. Guo Dawei also pointed out that it is hoped that the real estate market will grow steadily, and that too fast and excessive downward adjustment will be extremely detrimental to the development of the market.

Housing prices will gradually move towards rationality, investment to rational investment, learn from the world's experience is this process, after the market develops to a certain extent, the investment value of real estate will continue to decrease, so that in the end no one will speculate on housing, now developed countries who will go to speculation, many Chinese go to the United States to speculate, they are looking at it with a different eye, feel incomprehensible! What is there to fry in the house, I just can't figure it out, I think the Chinese do things strangely. In addition, China's urbanization process is deepening, the population of rural and urban areas is constantly moving and decreasing, and the population of large cities is swelling, this process requires rational investment, and then it will develop for more than ten years, the population will age, and the per capita income will continue to increase.

At that time, it will be like the current developed countries such as Europe and the United States, and no one will go to speculate on real estate.

1. Completion of real estate development investment.

From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 1,366.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline; Among them, residential investment was 1,027.3 billion yuan, a decline.

2. Commodity housing sales and for sale.

From January to February, the sales area of commercial housing was 151.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease, of which the sales area of residential buildings declined. The sales of commercial buildings were 1,544.9 billion yuan, declining, of which residential sales increased.

At the end of February, the area of commercial housing for sale was 655.28 million square meters, a year-on-year increase. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased.

Third, the real estate development enterprises in place of funds.

From January to February, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 2,133.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease. Among them, domestic loans were 348.9 billion yuan, a decline; the use of foreign capital was 500 million yuan, a decrease; 634.2 billion yuan was raised from the chain difference, a decrease; deposits and advance receipts were 711.2 billion yuan, a decrease; personal mortgage loans were 349.5 billion yuan, a decline.

Fourth, the real estate development prosperity index.

In February, the real estate development prosperity index (hereinafter referred to as the "national housing prosperity index") was.

It's the winter of real estate, and the market is different in different cities, so I should start the month here.

June and July will be the lowest trough, and then**.

1.Housing prices can't fall:

Because: 30% of the tax comes from real estate;

50-60% of the cost of real estate is tax;

There are about 120 kinds of real estate taxes (in ancient times, it was called harsh taxes and miscellaneous taxes, and now it is called the implementation of the scientific concept of development), and ordinary people need 10-20 years of savings to buy a house, and the international standard is 4 years;

That's how clear the data is...

2.But there won't be much of a price increase:

Because ** is still in the price limit;

Steady**, one step at a time, it won't** but it won't be like bamboo shoots.

For large cities, although there are hard resources to support housing prices will not drop sharply, but also by region, if the city is too big, then the urban fringe may have a decline of about 10%-30%, and the decline in individual areas with large moisture reaches 50%, such as Tongzhou in Beijing, which fell from 30,000 yuan to about 13,000 yuan, which belongs to a small number of situations, such as Daxing, Fangshan and other places, and it will drop by 30% if it dies, and it will come to an end.

The core area of a big city, even if it is the core area within the fourth ring road, will only rise and not fall, because medical and educational resources are concentrated, not counting commercial needs, and the people of the whole country attracted by resources alone are enough to support housing prices. Once the purchase restriction policy is relaxed, it will soar.

It should rise, and now the crackdown on illegal occupation of land is very strong, and developers can't approve land, and there is no construction land

My analysis is temporarily small**will continue ** in the future, for the following reasons:

First, the land price will not fall;

2. Building materials such as steel bars and cement;

3. Personnel salary**;

Fourth, the rigid demand for house purchase continues**;

5. Beijing's unique advantages in regional resources;

Sixth, the current delay in the first-hand house**, but the creation of the second-hand house price**, both investors still have space;

7. The inflow of "hot money";

8. The heavy blow to other related industries in housing prices has made it "necessary to reasonably regulate";

9. The launch of affordable housing and two-limit housing is also bound to leave a lot of room for commercial housing. In addition, with affordable housing and two-limit housing, there is an explanation for the people, and the space of commercial housing will inevitably be explained to other side businesses? At the same time, it also gives an explanation of the tax of **; Moreover, the really rich people also pay more attention to the taste of living, which is why the 300,000-square-meter commercial house is still against the trend;

To sum up, Beijing's housing prices will not be **, at present, it is only a symbolic cooperation with the "policy call", and there will still be a retaliatory ** increase in the later stage! The image corresponds to the theory of high jump, that is, "In order to jump high, squat down first, and then jump!" "Hope it helps you in your home buying decision!

First-tier cities fell by 10%, while second-tier cities stabilized.

Now the house price is really high, outrageously high, and the amount is also large, I remember 6 years ago when we bought a house we have no real estate here, some are just small plates, what community environment is very poor, but at that time I felt that the house price was already very high, to take a loan of 70% to bear, and it will take 15 years to afford, now the real estate is getting bigger and bigger, more and more real estate, ** has also doubled several times, I don't know when it will rise to a head.

Whether it will rise or fall in the second half of the year, I think it depends on two points, one is the political environment, which is difficult to judge; The second is the economic environment, whether prices can be stable, but I look at the trend, it is difficult for housing prices not to rise, because it is expensive to buy everything, the cost is already much higher, plus everyone's income will double in 5 years, and everyone must have a house in the city (I have found that many ordinary manual migrant workers have bought houses in the city without other income). However, I also feel that there should be houses in the city, and there are already houses, especially civil servants and public institutions or monopoly state-owned enterprises with good efficiency, all of which have target houses for sale.