Is the weather forecast accurate, is the weather forecast really accurate?

In general, weather forecasts are accurate.

The smaller the precise range of the forecast area, the more accurate the weather forecast.

For example, if you look at the weather forecast of the district in your area, of course, it is more accurate than the city forecast. However, if the forecast weather is long, it will be relatively inaccurate. For example, the forecast of the weather for two weeks and one week is not too accurate.

I really have the face to say that the so-called weather forecast can be overestimated with 30% accuracy.

Weather forecasts within 7 days are the most accurate.

Limited by the level of scientific and technological development, the weather forecast within 7 days is still certain, and the closer the time, the greater the reliability. Warm winter or source of cold winter refers to the general trend of temperature throughout the winter (usually refers to December-February), the temperature in China in December this year is low, is a cold winter or warm winter, but also depends on the situation next year.

The weather forecast on the mobile phone for the last three days is OK, and more than this number of days should belong to data analysis, not 100% accurate.

In general, weather forecasts are accurate.

The smaller the precise range of the forecast area, the more accurate the weather forecast.

For example, if you look at the weather forecast of the district in your area, of course, it is more accurate than the city forecast. However, if the forecast weather is long, it will be relatively inaccurate. For example, the forecast of the weather for two weeks and one week is not too accurate.

Not 100% accurate. Modern weather forecasting.

As a young science, it has made great progress in the past 100 years and has gained widespread trust. However, as the best science, weather forecasting is subject to factors such as scientific understanding and technical means, and it is impossible to be 100% accurate, and the accuracy of forecasting is also a certain distance from the growing demand of the public.

There are a few steps to making a weather forecast:Meteorological monitoring data collection (mainly collecting temperature, pressure, humidity, wind and other real-time data), analyzing numerical weather forecasting (including looking at weather maps, cloud maps, radar data, etc.), meteorologists to make forecasts (comprehensive analysis of numerical prediction products, combined with real-time, **local weather in the next 24-48 hours).

Apple's accurate weather forecast will always have a certain amount of error;

The reason for this is that weather forecasting (surveying) or weather forecasting (surveying) is the use of modern science and technology to ** the state of the earth's atmosphere at a certain location in the future. Since prehistoric times, human beings have begun to use the weather to arrange their work and life (such as agricultural production, military operations, etc.). ).

Today's weather forecasts are mainly based on the collection of a large amount of data (temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed, air pressure, etc.). ), and then use current knowledge of atmospheric processes (meteorology) to determine future air changes. Because of the chaos of atmospheric processes, and the fact that today's science has not yet fully understood atmospheric processes, there will always be some errors in weather forecasting.

The accuracy of a weather forecast can be affected by a variety of factors, including data, meteorological observations, models, and more. Normally, weather forecasts can provide relatively accurate weather trends and **, but there may be some errors for specific weather conditions and details.

In order to obtain more accurate weather forecasts, meteorological services collect, analyze, and process large amounts of meteorological data, including real-time data from meteorological observation stations, satellite imagery, weather radar, etc., and then use meteorological models and algorithms to perform the weather**. However, changes in weather are still influenced by a variety of complex factors, such as climate patterns, topography, seasonal changes, meteorological systems, etc.

Therefore, although weather forecasting can provide a certain degree of accuracy, there are still possible errors and variations that need to be considered when it comes to specific applications. For important events or situations that require accurate weather information, it is recommended to keep an eye on multiple weather forecasts** and get the latest weather forecast closer to the time of the event so that you can make more accurate decisions. In addition, weather forecasts may vary in different regions and seasons, so it is recommended to refer to local professional weather forecasting agencies for weather conditions in specific regions and time periods.

Permit. China has more than 2,400 artificial ground weather stations and more than 60,000 automatic ground stations covering unmanned and harsh areas, which regularly observe and record surface meteorological data every day. Sounding balloons and weather planes penetrate deep into the clouds to record upper-air meteorological data at different longitudinal scales.

In addition, Doppler radar scans the concentration of water vapor near the ground, water droplets from underlying clouds, and ice crystals every six minutes to calculate the size and location of water droplets.

Meteorological satellites monitor the meteorological status at the top of the atmosphere at all times, and measure the height of the cloud top and the thickness of the cloud layer through the infrared light emitted by the clouds.

Forecasters in China will use the MICAPS - Meteorological Information Integrated Analysis and Processing System to view historical meteorological information and conduct meteorological **.

With the help of the MICAPS system, each forecaster produces a local weather forecast based on a weather map and numerical predictions.

This kind of results based on personal experience and numerical calculations still need to be discussed by meteorological departments at all levels, and after summary and discussion, the national 24-hour short-term weather forecast is finally produced by the meteorological observatory, and the accuracy is very high.

Common terms: Clear: The sky is less than 3 percent cloudy.

Cloudy: The sky is cloudy with 9 percent or more.

Fog: A large number of tiny water droplets or ice crystals floating in the air near the ground, and the horizontal visibility is reduced to less than 1 km, affecting transportation.

Light rain: less than 10 mm of precipitation per day.

Heavy rain: daily precipitation in millimeters.

Thundershowers: Bursts of precipitation that come and go and are accompanied by lightning and thunder.

Hail: With the intense vertical movement in the cumulonimbus cloud, the small hail nuclei repeatedly rise, condense and melt, grow into Xiaoice blocks of transparent layers and fall, which has an impact on crops.

Freezing rain: raindrops freeze on the ground on the surface of objects below 0, also known as rain (frozen by fogdrops, called rime), often fall and break wires, make the road surface icy, affect communications, power supply, traffic, etc.

Sleet: Near-surface air temperature slightly above 0, wet snow or rain and snow falling at the same time.

Light snow: The amount of snow falling per day (melted into water) is less than millimeters.

Moderate snow: daily snowfall (melt into water) millimeters.

Heavy snowfall: Daily snowfall (melted into water) of millimeters or more.

A few years ago, weather forecasts were made in general terms such as: it will rain tomorrow, it may rain tomorrow, it will not rain tomorrow, and so on. Weather forecasts are often wrong.

Today, the weather forecast takes a different form: the probability of rain tomorrow is 60 . What does this 60 mean?

Does such a forecast contain more information than earlier forms of forecasting? Perhaps, for those who have no idea what "possibility" means, today's weather forecasts can cause confusion and even create the impression that today's forecasts are not as accurate or useful as in the past.

In weather forecasting, there are always uncertainties. Therefore, logically speaking, without giving the most accurate forecast, it is meaningless or useless for decision-making. In weather forecasting, the number 60 provides a measure of accuracy.

Such forecasts often mean that there are 60 percent chance of rain tomorrow. Of course, it is impossible to assert that there will be rain at a particular moment. In this sense, forecasting a "60 chance of rain tomorrow" is more useful and more logical than the general statement of "rain tomorrow".

So, in what sense is this narrative useful?

Assuming that the weather forecast is based on the weather forecast, the probability of rain tomorrow is 60%, and the decision is made whether to bring an umbrella or not. Suppose that on any given day, the inconvenience caused by bringing an umbrella can be measured by money, set as m yuan, and the loss caused by not bringing an umbrella and being wet is set to r yuan, then when the probability of rainfall is 60, the expected loss under the two decisions is found in the form of yuan: decision, expected loss; with umbrella m; Without an umbrella; Therefore, when m decides to bring an umbrella, not carrying an umbrella when m > can minimize your losses. Meteorological station.

AnswerFirst of all, our understanding of atmospheric motion is not yet complete. Any weather generation and change is caused by the constant movement of the atmosphere. Secondly, the meteorological observation network does not cover every corner of the observation site completely, and some observations are based on the average value of observations, which can also cause errors.

Third, numerical weather prediction models cannot fully simulate atmospheric evolution. Fourth, the experience and professional quality of weather forecasters may also cause deviations in weather forecasts. In addition, the lack of access to the latest weather forecast information is also an objective reason why everyone thinks that the weather forecast is inaccurate.

Why can't weather forecasts be 100% accurate?

Meteorological science belongs to the first science, itself with a certain degree of uncertainty, coupled with the monitoring network is not fine to each region, and the weather forecast is a probabilistic forecast, such as in summer, strong convective weather is frequent, affected by terrain and other factors, local precipitation is more, at this time the possibility of forecast error will increase. Based on the current level of science and technology, weather forecasts cannot reach 100% accuracy, but the meteorological department will do its best to improve the accuracy of forecasts.

The weather forecast** can be 100% accurate, but it is approximate, and the weather forecast** is a relatively large area, it may not rain there you, it is not far from you, the playground I met last time it rained again, and the other side of the ground is still dry.

The weather forecast was not accurate, it was raining and there was no rain on the forecast.

Eight out of ten forecasts are inaccurate, what's the use of forecasting?

Weather forecasts within 7 days are the most accurate.

Limited by the level of scientific and technological development, the weather forecast within 7 days is still certain, and the closer the time, the greater the reliability, so the current weather forecast released to the public in China is generally within a week. Warm winter or cold winter refers to the general trend of temperature throughout the winter (usually refers to December-February), the temperature in China in December this year is low, is a cold winter or warm winter, but also depends on the situation in next year.

1. Ink weather: support more than 3,000 county-level cities; 24-hour time-based forecast, a good helper for traveling; Provide detailed life information and advice, including: dressing, exercise, makeup, cold, ultraviolet rays, car washing; Check the air quality in real time, not only care about the weather, but also care about the air.

2. Aoxue weather: Aoxue weather is a computer weather forecast software with accurate weather data, Aoxue weather can predict the weather conditions of the country in the next week, and provides the function of timing shutdown, and also has a countdown to wake up, which is very convenient and convenient, which greatly meets the needs of the majority of users.

3. Caiyun weather: Through mobile phone positioning, unlike most other weather software that can only see a general forecast of "local showers", Caiyun weather can give users an accurate forecast of what time it will rain or when the rain will stop in the next hour according to your current location, so as to help users decide on a travel plan.

4. Geometric weather: It is also a very clean software, the daily overview and hourly overview are very intimate, the air quality index allows you to prepare masks in advance, and the data ** also has multiple options. In addition to the weather, the life index is also included, and there is hardly anything superfluous.

5. China Weather: As a pure weather APP, it combines the professional meteorological data and service technology of the China Meteorological Administration and Accuweather, a well-known meteorological company in the United States, to provide users with all-round, multi-angle and high-precision meteorological information service products. It will form a brand synergy and help the in-depth development of meteorological services.

Weather forecasting is the application of the law of atmospheric changes, according to the current and recent weather situation, the weather conditions of a certain place in a certain period of time in the future**. It is based on the analysis of satellite cloud images and weather maps, combined with relevant meteorological data, topographical and seasonal characteristics, and the experience of the masses. For example, the satellite cloud image of China's first meteorological observatory was taken by the "Fengyun-1" meteorological satellite made in China.

The use of satellite cloud imagery** for analysis can improve the accuracy of weather forecasting. Weather forecasts are usually divided into three types in terms of the length of time: short-term weather forecast (2 3 days), medium-term weather forecast (4 9 days), and long-term weather forecast (more than 10 15 days).

As far as the current weather forecast is concerned, the accuracy is more reliable or within 72 hours, and the forecast is not very accurate if it is farther away, of course, there is also a one-month weather forecast.