Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the second and third quarters of 06 15

You can't explain the current policy of the central bank with the theoretical knowledge of "Money and Banking", because they have not played their cards according to the theory at all.

The current policy of the central bank is one word, drag! It is characterized by the use of a large number of quantitative tools and a small number of cost tools.

Its core purpose is to ensure that when Bao Er Ye is still there, the economy will not collapse, and when Bao Er Ye goes down to the flood, it will be the next thing.

In principle, it is also a tightening policy, and in the era of high inflation, it can be regarded as a posture for the majority of the people. In terms of technical effect, the frozen money can be released in the follow-up to ensure that the release of water in the later storm will not be too exaggerated. However, in reality, the bank's capital is tight, resulting in loans that can only be brought to people or enterprises in the system whose father is Li Gang, and small and medium-sized enterprises are suffering from very exaggerated capital costs, which is obviously unsustainable.

Trying not to raise interest rates as much as possible is actually to sacrifice the interests of the people's deposits to ensure that large central enterprises and local Z-F will not go bankrupt at this stage because they cannot repay the interest.

Of course, the result of this is also obvious: people who really produce products and create wealth, especially enterprises with low self-owned capital ratios, long capital turnover periods, and long production cycles, will starve to death in such a deformed policy, and we will face a situation with less goods and more money, and there will be a structural shortage caused by the over-issuance of money and the deformed policy.

Of course, when the over-issued money begins to chase food and basic consumer goods, and at the same time abandon the bubble assets represented by real estate, the game will come to an end, the central bank will inject more capital, the central bank will re-lend one after another, the RMB will depreciate sharply, the interest rate will rise to exaggerated figures, all kinds of regulations will come again, and blood will be sprinkled all over the land again. The rest is only a matter of time, judging from the current situation, the fuse is not in the house, and patiently wait for the end of the deficit reduction game of Mi Wei.

The main manifestations of the economic situation in the first quarter: 1. Inflationary pressure continued to be maintained; 2. The investment intensity remains at a high level; 3. Domestic consumption has been partially suppressed; 4. Foreign trade continued to run in deficit, with active foreign investment and declining profits of foreign trade enterprises.

As a result, monetary easing has shifted further to steady tightening, while the banking system has further restricted investment in energy-intensive industries. Fiscal expenditures at all levels are directed to agriculture and underdeveloped areas, as well as key livelihood areas (housing, medical care, low income), and high-tech industries; The focus is to prevent inflation from worsening, continue to support and guide enterprises to develop outward, expand the international market, and maintain the relative stability of the RMB; The most important thing is to strengthen international cooperation, strive for policy coordination, and jointly manage global economic issues.

Two interest rate hikes and one increase in the reserve ratio.

1) The implementation of a prudent monetary policy is a requirement for the implementation of the Scientific Outlook on Development. The central bank takes accelerating the transformation of economic development mode as the main line, implements a prudent monetary policy, stabilizes prices, and promotes the sound and rapid development of the national economy; Strengthening macroeconomic regulation and control is an intrinsic requirement of the socialist market economy. The implementation of a prudent monetary policy by the central bank is the embodiment of the central bank's use of economic means to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control, which is conducive to achieving the main objectives of macroeconomic regulation and control such as promoting economic growth and stabilizing prices, and promoting the healthy development of the socialist market economy in Xizhen.

2) The dominant contradiction is in a dominant position in the development of things and plays a decisive role in the development of things, which requires us to concentrate our efforts on resolving the main contradictions. This is reflected in the fact that we continue to regard stabilizing the overall price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control. Matter determines consciousness, which requires us to proceed from reality and seek truth from facts.

This is reflected in strengthening the observation and analysis of the domestic and foreign economic situation, grasping the strength and rhythm of policies, improving the pertinence, flexibility and forward-looking nature of regulation and control, and consolidating the results of regulation and control in the early stage. The world is an organic whole without a universal connection, and the universality and objectivity of the connection require us to look at the problem from the perspective of connection. This is reflected in the proper handling of the relationship between maintaining steady and relatively rapid economic growth, adjusting the economic structure, and managing inflation expectations.