Why is it said that the property market in hot cities has begun to cool

According to reports, since September 30 last year, Beijing took the lead in introducing a real estate tightening policy, more than 100 cities have issued more than 200 property market control policies, and the property market in many places has found that compared with the hot property market in the same period last year, this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is insufficient. The property market transactions in hot cities are obviously "cold".

According to the report, several large real estate agency stores in Shanghai are almost unattended. The person in charge of a number of second-hand housing intermediaries said that due to the light transaction, many homeowners are not willing to list, and the listing volume and price have been declining. However, in terms of the ** listed, the homeowner's motivation to reduce the price has increased, and the buyer's bargaining range is 3% to 5%.

According to the latest changes in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, from a month-on-month perspective, 15 first-tier and hot second-tier cities stopped rising in new commercial housing** for two consecutive months. In fact, the inflection point of housing prices in first- and second-tier cities appeared in August, and new houses in 15 hot cities showed a comprehensive stop rising for the first time in the past three years.

Industry insiders said that this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is insufficient, the national commercial residential transaction volume fell by 40% compared with the same period last year, since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national commercial residential sales has narrowed by an average monthly decline of two percentage points, which shows that the real estate market is constantly cooling.

I hope that the property market can continue to cool down!

Not very clear, rural, self-built houses.

According to reports, before the National Day, Chongqing, Nanchang, Shijiazhuang, Xi'an and other places tightened the regulation of the property market again, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" on the occasion of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the first and second tier hot property market is generally "light", and the hot city property market is generally "cold", on the contrary, some of the third and fourth tier property market is more active.

According to the report, at present, a real estate in Nanxiang plate, Jiading District, Shanghai, now adds the average price of fine decoration new projects in 10,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, and the average price of the same type of new projects last year is between 10,000 yuan and 60,000 yards.

The property market reflects the "light" property market in the first and second-tier hot cities after continuous regulation: the number of listings and transactions has decreased significantly, and the transaction cycle has refreshed the highest level in history, extending to 2 months, and the latest data shows that 15 hot cities have seen the first comprehensive stop rising in the past 3 years.

The person in charge of the China Real Estate Association said that the trend of excessively fast housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities has been controlled; Due to the city's policy, the third and fourth-tier cities have achieved remarkable results in real estate destocking, and the market is relatively active.

I hope that the property market can be effectively controlled and no longer go up all the time!

Mr. Zhang, the manager of a store in Zhongyuan Real Estate, Changning District, Shanghai, told reporters that since August, the number of people looking at the house has been at a low level, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of buyers and sellers is strong. Buyers negotiate between 3% and 5%.

Shanghai's property market reflects the "lightness" of the property market in first- and second-tier hot cities after continuous regulation: the number of listings and transactions has decreased significantly, and the transaction cycle has refreshed the highest level in history, extending to 2 months; According to the latest data on housing prices in 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, new houses in 15 hot cities have stopped rising for the first time in the past three years.

Unlike the "cold" property market in first- and second-tier hot cities, some third- and fourth-tier cities are showing a two-wangge hall cracked eggplant bureau for purchase and sales. During the National Day, the reporter met a "buying group" from Changle, Fuqing and other places in a sales office of an existing house in Quanzhou, Fujian. Mr. Jiang, a real estate consultant, said that before and after the holiday, many first-hand real estate projects in Quanzhou began to increase in price, and some were about 300 yuan per square meter.

Taking advantage of returning to their hometowns, many people are busy buying houses, and the number of inquiries and house inspections is more than 30% in the past few days.

Miao Leru, vice president of the China Real Estate Association, said that the trend of excessively fast housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities has been controlled; Due to the city's policies, the real estate destocking in third- and fourth-tier cities has achieved remarkable results, and the market is relatively active. "Over the past year, the overall performance of the market has been in line with regulatory expectations. ”

The trend of housing prices is related to the local housing inventory and the relationship between supply and demand, when the supply exceeds demand, the house price is weak!

On the one hand, the first-tier cities and hot cities are soaring, and on the other hand, they are the third and fourth-tier cities, which are sluggish, because the inventory is too large, so to solve the problem of China's property market should be said to be adapted to local conditions, and different policy measures should be taken according to the specific situation. Due to the policy guidance such as provident fund loans, mortgage ratio reductions and tax cuts, Lou Tan City, a first-tier city and a hot city, will not decline in the coming period.

According to reports, since the end of September last year, from the "five restrictions" to the "simultaneous purchase and rent" and "the same right to rent and sell", more than 100 cities have issued more than 150 property market control policies, in 2017, the first and second tier hot property market is generally "light", and some of the third and fourth tier property market is more active.

According to the report, when visiting the Shanghai property market recently, I saw that the housing prices of real estate in the suburbs fell sharply, and the city's second-hand housing transactions maintained an off-season pattern, and the average price of new projects with fine decoration was 460,000 yuan to 520,000 yuan, while the average price of the new projects with the same house type last year was between 580,000 yuan and 60,000 yuan.

Experts said that the property market in the upper section reflects the "lightness" of the property market in the first and second-tier hot cities after continuous regulation: the number of listings and transactions has decreased significantly, and the transaction cycle has refreshed the highest level in history, extending to 2 months; According to the latest data on housing prices in 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, new houses in 15 hot cities have stopped rising for the first time in the past three years.

The person in charge of the China Real Estate Association said that unlike the "cold" property market in the first and second-tier hot cities, some third- and fourth-tier cities have shown a booming pattern of purchase and sales, and the trend of housing prices in the first and second-tier hot cities has been controlled, and the real estate destocking in the third- and fourth-tier cities has achieved remarkable results, the market is more active, and the overall performance of the market is in line with regulatory expectations.

Netizens have said that Xixiao hopes that housing prices will not rise as rapidly as China's economic development growth rate!

The highest ones are the following (only mainland cities).

1. First-tier cities. It is usually said that it is Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou), if expanded, also include their surrounding cities, such as Baoding, Tongzhou, Xiong'an in Hebei, Kunshan, Jiaxing in Shanghai, etc.

2. Municipalities directly under the Central Government. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing.

3. Cities with separate plans. Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen, Shenzhen 4, central cities. Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenyang, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, Shenyang, Xi'an, Chengdu, Jinan, Hangzhou, Harbin, Changchun, Dalian, Qingdao, Xiamen, Ningbo.

These cities have duplication with each other, excluding the duplicates, a total of 20 cities.

If it is expanded, the number of open coastal cities and other provincial capitals can be increased by about 20, and there will be a maximum of 40. The Chinese population is 1.4 billion.

Beijing, Shanghai. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou.

According to reports, the data released by a real estate company a few days ago showed that 6 days ago, the hot cities of the property market were significantly lowered, and the online signatures of 30 hot cities were significantly lowered, with an average decrease of about eighty percent, and 78 sets of new residential buildings in Beijing were signed online on the 6th, and 23 sets of second-hand houses were signed online, which were the lowest since 2009.

According to the report, with a series of stricter property market regulation and control such as rental and purchase rights, public rental housing, and sales restrictions, during the National Day holiday, the property market in hot cities was obviously cold, and the hot 30 cities signed a large number of online signatures, with an average decline of eighty percent, and the transaction volume hit the lowest in three years. The leasing market may usher in a new stage of development.

According to the data, 78 new residential buildings in Beijing were signed online on the 6th, and 23 second-hand houses were signed online, both of which were the lowest since 2009, a year-on-year decrease of 72%, and 147 sets of online signatures in Shanghai on the 6th, a year-on-year decrease of 78%. Guangzhou, Nanjing and other cities signed online lower than the same period last year. The regulation and control of first- and second-tier cities have been fully upgraded, and most of the investment demand may be shifted to third- and fourth-tier cities.

Netizens have expressed their hopes that the cooling of the property market can bring about a decline in housing prices!

According to reports, in 2017, China's economy as a whole ran smoothly, in which the real estate market played an important role, a variety of signs show that under the guidance of "the house is used to live, not for speculation", China's real estate market has shown a narrowing trend, and in the future, with the advancement of "destocking and deleveraging", the domestic real estate market is likely to further cool down.

According to the report, from the perspective of supply-side investment, the growth rate of national real estate development investment fell to 1% in 2015, after the "freezing point", it gradually rebounded in 2016, and the growth rate in the first half of 2017 continued to rise, and the cumulative growth rate in the first four months reached a new high in the past two years; Since then, it has slowly declined, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in the first 11 months has remained at the same level, down one percentage point from January to October.

In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of land purchase area in early 2017 from negative to positive, has maintained a steady growth, the land market heat has not decreased, 2017 January to September land transactions cumulative year-on-year increase, compared with the 2016 annual land transaction year-on-year growth has increased significantly, land transactions have been a leading indicator of new real estate construction area to drive investment growth.

From the demand side, the year-on-year growth rate of the sales area of commercial housing in China fell from the beginning of 2017 to the January-November period of 2017. The area of commercial housing for sale decreased from 100 million square meters in January-February 2017 to 100 million square meters in January-November, an overall decrease of about 15%, of which the area for sale in Zhujikai decreased by 61.78 million square meters from the peak at the beginning of the year.

I hope that the effect of the regulation of the property market in 2018 can continue to appear!

From the perspective of regulation and control effect, in the first half of the year, the fluctuation of housing prices across the country slowed down, and the regulation and control effect of the property market in hot cities represented by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was significant. But on the other hand, some second-, third- and fourth-tier cities have a "rotational price increase" phenomenon. According to the "Changes in the Sales of Commercial Housing in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in June 2018" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, there are 61 cities with new commercial housing **year-on-year**, and Dandong, Liaoning Province leads the country with a range of up to 15%;Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai extended their 10-month, 9-month and 6-month losing streaks, respectively.

At the same time, the data shows that in June, the sales of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 31 second-tier cities were respectively and respectively, and the increase continued to expand. Relevant people believe that since the beginning of this year, the threshold for talents to settle in second- and third-tier cities such as Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Changsha has been reduced, resulting in a short-term influx of a large number of people, the expansion of rigid demand groups, and the emergence of housing prices in stages.

The transaction volume of many third- and fourth-tier cities has been enlarged. Relevant data show that in the first half of the year, the sales area of commercial housing in third- and fourth-tier cities accounted for more than 60%. Housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities such as Nanchong in Sichuan and Zunyi in Guizhou have increased by more than 10% year-on-year for many months.

Wang Yeqiang, director of the real estate office of the Urban Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that under the strict control of hot cities, some third- and fourth-tier cities have undertaken the overflow of speculative demand for real estate investment because the housing purchase policy is still relatively relaxed.

It is mainly caused by speculation of funds.