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The inflationary cycle in our country.
Under the conditions of a market economy, the fluctuations in the price level include inflation and deflation, and have the regularity of cyclical changes. That is to say, there is an objective cycle of price level fluctuations in the operation of the economy, or there is an inflation cycle and a deflationary cycle. Looking at the chart on the right, we can clearly see the regularity of the fluctuation of the price level in our country since 1978.
The price level fluctuation curve expressed by CPI (Consumer Consumption ** Index) in the figure shows that from 1978 to 2010, the peak years of price fluctuations, that is, the years of the highest inflation rate, were 1980 (and 2007 (; The trough years, i.e., the years in which the lowest inflation rate occurred, were 1982 or 1983 (both years (and 2009). In the 27 years from 1980 to 2007, there were three cycles in the 27 years from 1980 to 2007, with an average length of nine years. In the 27 years from 1982 to 2009, there were three cycles, and the average length of the cycle was nine years.
It should be noted that when revealing the law of the inflation cycle, the impact of non-economic factors on the price level should be excluded. For example, from 1987 to 1988, China opened up some products and tried to carry out reform to "break through", which was the direct cause of the sharp rise in CPI in 1988. Otherwise, the peak year of prices is likely not to be 1988 but 1985, and the CPI of 1985 is.
In 1994, the CPI reached the highest point since the reform and opening up, which was caused by two reasons: first, China's economy has been overheated from 1992 to 1994, and the economic growth rate was % and % respectively; Second, in September 1992, the state delegated the pricing power of 593 kinds of means of production products to enterprises and provincial price departments, and only 89 kinds were directly managed by the state, which directly led to a sharp rise in the first level.
From the perspective of China's economic practice, it is more objective to observe the law of price cycle fluctuations based on the trough year, because it can more truly reflect the law of economic operation, and is less affected by institutional factors and changes in economic policies. Based on the trough year of price fluctuations, the price fluctuation cycle in China can be divided as follows: 1982-1990 is the first cycle of price level fluctuation; 1990-1999 is the second cycle; The period from 1999 to 2009 is the third cycle.
It can also be seen from the graph that each cycle contains a period of overall upward trend at the ** level and a period with a general downward trend at the ** level, that is, a period of inflation and a period of deflation.
This analysis should be relatively authoritative!
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Inflation in China.
In the 100 years of the 20th century, China experienced inflation in two different socio-economic and international environments, the first was during the civil war in the late 40s of the last century; The second time occurred during the period of reform and opening up after ending 30 years of isolation from Western countries. This paper focuses on the background and process of inflation in China in the last 20 years of the last century.
In these 20 years, our country has experienced four inflations:
1 The first inflation occurred in 1979-1982, of which the CPI reached a peak of 106 in 1980, although this ** index is not very high, and the impact on social and economic life is very limited, but it awakens people to refocus on the economic phenomenon of inflation that has been bid farewell for nearly 30 years.
2 The second inflation occurred in 1983-1986. During this period, the investment in fixed assets, the retail sales of the whole society, and the amount of money in the market all had a peak growth rate, which quickly led to the total demand of the whole society greatly exceeding the total supply, and the demand pressure was very obvious, and the demand pressure was very obvious, and in 1985, it was the same as the same period last year. Compared with the previous fluctuation, this time the inflation caused the whole society to be widespread.
3 The third inflation occurred in 1987-1991. In 1987, the flow of money in the country increased rapidly again, with an annual growth rate of 116%, and the goods also showed a synchronized rate. By the end of 1988, the year-on-year increase reached double-digit for the first time since the reform and opening up.
4 The fourth inflation occurred from 1992 to the end of 1995. Reform and opening up in the land of our country has been further deepened, the reform orientation of the market economy has been formally defined, various economic components have become more active, the demand for materials is very strong, and various commodities have begun to rise again, and the same period last year has risen and respectively. For this reason, ** once again adopted strict macroeconomic control measures, and by 1995, inflation gradually subsided.
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