The crisis caused by the sharp appreciation of the renminbi?

The advantages of our products have been weakened, for us: it is more cost-effective to spend RMB abroad, but there is inflationary pressure at home.

On September 16, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 1 US dollar to the Chinese yuan, a sharp increase of 397 basis points from the previous trading day, rising above the mark.

In the long run, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar on May 29 was.

1316, in just over 3 months, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated by 3491 basis points.

The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is even more "rising". On the morning of September 16, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates both rose above the threshold.

Why is there such a sharp appreciation of the renminbi?

As for the reasons for the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, first, the support of China's economic fundamentals continues to improve; Second, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, and non-U.S. currencies, including the renminbi, showed an appreciation trend; Third, international investors are optimistic about the prospects of China's economy and RMB assets, and foreign capital continues to flow into China's capital market, driving the appreciation of RMB.

The improvement in China's economic fundamentals can be felt in the latest economic data. According to the August economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 15, a number of key indicators such as consumption turned from negative to positive for the first time this year.

Specifically, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased year-on-year, the first positive growth this year; From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive; From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of the year achieved positive growth for the first time; From January to August, the sales of commercial housing increased, and it also turned positive for the first time.

What is the impact of a sharp appreciation of the RMB?

For ordinary people, the appreciation of the renminbi means that the money in hand is more valuable, and it will be more cost-effective if you travel, study abroad, and shop abroad. Because of the same money, you get more dollars in exchange, and you can buy more goods and services.

Exchange $100,000 to save more than $30,000.

It can be simply calculated: on May 29, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was.

1316, on September 16. From to.

7825, if the exchange of 100,000 US dollars, it was needed 10,000 yuan at that time, but today it only needs 10,000 yuan, which can save 10,000 yuan.

Wen Bin said that for residents, the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to overseas tourism, overseas shopping, and studying abroad, reducing overseas consumption costs, and increasing consumer welfare. At the same time, international investors are optimistic about China's capital market, and the continuous net inflow of international funds will also help domestic residents hold RMB assets and maintain sustained and stable income from assets.

Good for imports, bad for exports.

For enterprises, the strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is good for import enterprises, and it will bring certain pressure to export enterprises.

From the perspective of import enterprises, because of the appreciation of the RMB, especially not only against the US dollar, but also against a basket of currencies, it will reduce procurement costs and increase profits.

1. Imports will be reduced

Import-based companies will lose their profits, because when importing goods, they need to convert RMB into US dollars and other foreign exchange at the bank counter, and then purchase goods from abroad.

After the depreciation of the renminbi, the same renminbi is exchanged for less and less dollars, and the amount of goods bought is less, resulting in an increase in import costs and a decrease in the competitiveness of imported products.

2. Exports will increase:

Therefore, the essence of the continuous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate should be that export companies subsidize and assist these enterprises to export, which is conducive to protecting low-end industries and backward production capacity, but will increase industrial pollution, damage the ecological environment, and is not conducive to the adjustment of the country's industrial structure and the upgrading of the industrial chain.

3. Increase employment

After the depreciation of the renminbi, due to the decrease in imports, the competition in China's sales market has decreased, the sales of goods in the national group stalls have increased, and the employment opportunities have increased; And because of the increase in exports, the profitability of export enterprises will increase, which will also lead to an increase in jobs.

4. Increase in import costs

As a result, the prices of manufacturing and consumer goods have soared, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will also cause the prices of imported products to rise in China, promoting the overall price level.

Over the years, China needs to import a large amount of oil, iron ore, wood, soybeans, grain and other manufacturing and consumer goods, which are all settled in US dollars. If the renminbi continues to depreciate, the imports** of these daily necessities will rise, which will drive up the cost of the entire industrial chain.

5. Impact on the market:

The depreciation of the RMB has a more complex impact on the market, the depreciation of the RMB will improve the competitiveness of the country's products, especially the export companies will benefit, and the cost of relying on the import company will also increase, and the profit will be lost, which will have a bad impact on small and medium-sized import enterprises, and the net profit of the enterprise will be reduced accordingly, and the stock price will also be affected.

6. Impact on gold prices and international commodities**

** and international commodities are priced in US dollars. The depreciation of the renminbi is equivalent to the appreciation of the US dollar, which is equivalent to the rise in the price of Huang Qingsun Gold and international commodities. Therefore, when the RMB depreciates, it is necessary to hold and buy hard currencies such as **.

To sum up, you will find that in fact, it is the sentence we usually say "money is becoming less and less valuable", the same hundred yuan can buy fewer and fewer items now, because the price level is in **, and your property has not changed much, so in other words, when you do not let your existing assets appreciate, your money has depreciated, which is the value of investment and financial management.

The continued depreciation of the renminbi refers to the decline in the value of the renminbi exchange rate relative to other currencies in Chalufeng. There are many reasons for the continuous depreciation of the RMB, including economic factors, monetary policy, international economic environment, etc.

First of all, economic factors are one of the main reasons for the continuous depreciation of the RMB. Factors such as slowing economic growth, increasing inflationary pressures, and declining ** surplus will all have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. When economic growth slows or uncertainty arises, foreign investors may reduce their demand for the renminbi, leading to a depreciation of the renminbi.

Second, monetary policy is also an important factor in the continued depreciation of the renminbi. The central bank controls the amount of money and liquidity by adjusting interest rates and reserve ratios. If the central bank adopts an accommodative monetary policy and increases the amount of currency, it may lead to the depreciation of the RMB.

In addition, foreign exchange market intervention and exchange rate management policies will also have an impact on the RMB exchange rate.

The international economic environment is also one of the important reasons for the continuous depreciation of the RMB. Factors such as the global economic situation, international frictions, and geopolitical risks will all have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. For example, if global economic growth slows or there is a financial crisis, foreign investors may flow money out of China, causing the renminbi to depreciate.

So, do you need to worry about the continued depreciation of the RMB? The answer is not simple. The continued depreciation of the renminbi will have different impacts on different groups of people and economic sectors.

For export companies and tourism, the depreciation of the renminbi means that their products and services are more competitive, which is conducive to export growth and tourism development. However, for importers and consumers, the depreciation of the RMB may lead to imported goods and increase the cost of living.

In addition, the continued depreciation of the renminbi may also trigger capital outflows and financial risks. If the expectation of RMB depreciation intensifies, foreign investors may move funds to other countries, leading to capital outflows. This could pose a challenge to China's financial stability and economic development.

Therefore, for individual investors and enterprises, it is necessary to assess the impact of the continuous depreciation of the RMB on them according to their own circumstances and take corresponding risk management measures. For ** and the central bank, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the RMB exchange rate and take appropriate monetary policy and market intervention measures to maintain the stability of the RMB.

To sum up, the continued depreciation of the renminbi is caused by a variety of factors, including economic factors, monetary policy and the international economic environment. For individual investors and enterprises, it is necessary to assess the impact of the continuous depreciation of the RMB on their own situation, and take corresponding risk management measures. For ** and the central bank, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the RMB exchange rate and take appropriate measures to maintain the stability of the RMB.

In fact, in my opinion, the reason is very simple, that is, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, and the magnitude of interest rate hikes will increase, which will inevitably cause the global dollar to return to the United States, and China has not followed the Fed to tighten, continue to provide sufficient liquidity support, and has also comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement ratio, and the monetary policy of China and the United States has diverged, making the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciate.

The depreciation of the renminbi needs to be viewed from both positive and negative aspects:

On the positive side, the depreciation of the renminbi is beneficial to export-oriented enterprises, and the depreciation of the renminbi by exporting enterprises in the US dollar means that overseas selling prices can be lowered and the cost performance of products can be improved. Industries such as garments and textiles will benefit from the depreciation of the renminbi and improve their business conditions.

On the downside, the cost of imports will increase, which will mainly affect the import of raw materials and energy. At the same time, the depreciation of the renminbi will further promote capital outflow, and the renminbi assets will be affected, which will be negative for the ** bond market.

However, from an objective point of view, the RMB has gone through a period of appreciation, and the appreciation space is not small, leaving room for depreciation, although there is a short-term depreciation, but it is still around, much higher than in 2020, so the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, the impact on the economy and capital market is limited, but this will have a certain impact on monetary policy, so that the domestic monetary easing has reservations.

It is impossible, because this year if the yuan is not strong, it will be harvested, and now the euro, South Korean won, etc. are making the national currency strong, if the yuan is not strong, it will be eaten by the dollar, and the specific strength must be higher than the dollar. Moreover, this year, the renminbi has undergone exchange rate reforms, and it will no longer closely follow the dollar, but will let it float freely to encourage its appreciation. Now in the global epidemic, the appreciation of the RMB has little impact on exports, and it is an opportunity for appreciation.

For ordinary taxpayers in China!! If you don't go abroad! Whether it goes up or down! The counter-evidence is that taxpayers have to pay more!

International prices have risen! Horse**! International prices have fallen! Let's analyze the reasons first!!

I don't know how much you mean by big devaluation.

The RMB exchange rate can fluctuate between 5:1 USD and 10:1 USD. Now it is 7, there is still 3 room for depreciation, and there is still 2 room for value-added, and the future is possible.

Whether it will depreciate depends on the economy, and if our economy is overheated, consumption is strengthened, and inflation grows too fast, then the renminbi will inevitably appreciate. On the other hand, if our consumption is insufficient and there is deflation, then the renminbi will inevitably continue to depreciate.