2638 points is not the real bottom in 2016, beware of the main force to dip twice

Judging from the daily ** combination after the end of the morning market, it is a three-day low market, which is a weak **, as far as the technical assessment has signs of falling below 2638, observing the price and volume of the morning, whether 2644 points can be held is the key position of 2638 to break, because from the 30-minute ** chart, it can be found that the transaction amount of the long black K stick is as high as 100 million, which is the largest 30-minute volume since January 8 on the 30-point ** chart, representing a large number of changes of hands at this point of 2644. Therefore, if it does not break 2644 points, it can be regarded as a strong buying force, but if it falls below the signal of failure to change hands, 2638 will inevitably be lost.

There is a KD divergence on the 30-minute chart, and in case the 2638 point falls below, the KD also enters the second divergence stage on the indicator, so there are advantages and disadvantages of 2638 breaking and not breaking.

The long black at 9:40 on the 5-minute chart is the largest 5-minute line in today's intraday, with a turnover of 100 million, and the largest 5-minute transaction amount, and the pressure above its low point of 2692 is quite heavy, if there is no greater attack volume, it may be difficult to stand firm and attack 2700 points.

The comprehensive assessment of the market is weak, but in terms of the situation that the GEM day K even 5 black, its ** does not need to be killed low in this position, and there will be a short **** in inertia, and it can be used to adjust the holdings when the ** is weak and strong.

It can't be, it won't be, and it will fall below.

There is no defined time for this problem, if you look at **, it is unlikely to fall below 2638, and it is expected to stop falling and rebound from tomorrow, depending on the strength of **. It is expected to be at the daily level**.

Personally, I think there will be one drop to 1720, after which it will trade sideways. As for how long it will be sideways, it depends on China's economic development.

The most difficult year.

First, after the economic crisis, the entire world economy is shrinking. The world is actually shrinking. China is also shrinking, because China is now the largest country in the world.

If the world's ** is shrinking, China's ** is also shrinking. This has caused a huge change in China's economy). In the past 20 years or so, the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth has been 1 3, and now this 1 3 is basically gone, and it has begun to become negative.

This is an important external factor in the slowdown of our economy.

Second, internally, the country's economic development is also facing a structural transformation to this day. Our industrialization has been going on for twenty or thirty years, and by 2010 and 2012, it basically reached its peak. A law in economics is that when your industrialization reaches its peak, financial and material resources will shift to relatively low productivity sectors.

Our industrial sector is the most productive sector, but we are now seeing a lot of manpower and material resources being shifted to the service sector, and the labor value of the service sector is not as high as that of industry, which will also slow down our economic growth.

Third, the most important one is the law of the economic cycle itself. No country can avoid this economic cycle, but your economic fluctuations can be a little bigger or smaller, and China's economic fluctuations should be quite drastic. Since the Southern Tour in 1992, we have basically experienced four major cycles, two ups and two downs.

The first upward spiral was in 1992-1997, and our economy was rising very, very fast. From 1997 to 2003 our economy was in a downturn, and it was a state of contraction. If you can remember, that period was also a very, very difficult time for the economy of our country.

The period from 2004 to 2012 was a time of rapid economic development for us, the fastest economic growth in history, thanks to the improvement of external conditions and the upward rush of our industrialization. So at that time, we had a saying that "even pigs will fly when they stand on the tuyere", because the wind was strong at that time, so everyone flew very high. But since 2012, our entire economy has started to decline, and the fuse is, of course, the crisis in Europe, which has spread to the whole world.

Now it seems that the only bright spot is the US economy, which is why the dollar is rising, and the currencies of all countries are depreciating against the dollar, and China is no exception. But will our depreciation be depreciated by 7? I think it is unlikely, if there is such a depreciation crisis, the central bank will definitely intervene, especially at a psychological juncture.

That is, the second time to the bottom. Probe, that is, downward, the stock price downward. The bottom refers to the area where the stock price is relatively low.

After a certain period of time, the stock price stops falling**. However, the upward amplitude is far less than the original amplitude, and the stock price turns downward again, approaching the lowest point of the first **. Such a pattern is called a "double dip".

When I answered questions from netizens, I said a long time ago that Huijin's increase in holdings is ****, and it will continue to be ** at the end**, and this point of view was also expressed in the post of Qilu Investment Bar "On the analysis of the trend and the market outlook in recent years".

The source of motivation is: lack of money! There is a steady stream of new stock IPOs, and new funds cannot keep up with the pace of financing.

When will it stabilize? I also care very much, everybody cares. This secret is actually in the hands of the management, he said to suspend the financing of new shares, ** come up immediately!

So when will he call it a halt? Only when it is difficult to finance, and the fall is too bad, he can't stand it, and then he will make a killer move! At this time, I can only roughly estimate 2000 points, and if it breaks 2000 points, the management should be unable to hold its breath!

Hurry up and throw it, it may reach 2200 points.

At present, ** is in the horizontal general, as long as you can put a little amount of it, you can follow.

It's okay to be optimistic about the trend, and it's medium and long-term.

Speculation spot, you can start at any time, no need to wait**.

The decline was not contained, and another 100 points were involved.