Weather forecasts are often inaccurate, and what are the subjective and objective factors in them?20

Before the 50s of the 20th century, weather forecasting was to manually fill in the observation data on a map (meteorologically called a weather map), and then the forecaster analyzed the meteorological elements such as high pressure and low pressure on this weather map. Artificial and subjective empirical forecasting. In the 50s of the 20th century, the United States began to study and implement "numerical weather prediction", which is a scientific solution to the initial value problem of partial differential equations of fluid dynamics.

After half a century of development, forecasts are now made based on "numerical weather prediction" in developed Europe and the United States. However, China is still mainly based on forecasters' experience, and to put it mildly, forecasters are guessing blindly. It is not too late for China's numerical forecasting to start, but the leadership does not pay enough attention to it, and the computer is backward.

However, in recent years, China has also bought large computers (one of the best in the world), but due to institutional problems and other problems, numerical prediction models are imported from abroad. Those who can do it are not allowed to do it, and those who can't do it are doing it blindly. Although the state has invested a lot, it has been very ineffective.

Waste of state money.

It is difficult to estimate who has more and who has less subjective and objective reasons for inaccurate weather forecasting, but it is certain that the accuracy of China's forecast is far less than that of developed countries. Because we are prominent in politics, technology is secondary.

If you want to see the weather forecast, you can go.

**Look. Its forecast accuracy is more accurate than that of any meteorological station in China (including the first meteorological station). Good luck!

Air currents, oppression, air temperature, etc., many factors affect the movement of cold and warm air, and cumulonimbus clouds, they are not like the movement on the ground, they are not limited at high altitude, so it is quite difficult to analyze them. Therefore, there needs to be a lot of complex motion studies such as fluid mechanics and turbulence studies.

The laws of climate have not yet been thoroughly studied.

In addition, the testing equipment invented by people on the basis of subjective understanding of climate is not authoritative.

Meteorology is unpredictable.

There is a famous saying that a butterfly in the Amazon jungle can cause a storm in Siberia with a flap of its wings.

There are so many unpredictable factors in weather forecasting

Weather forecasting, medicine, ** are all a class of instability.

You need to learn the science of chaos.

It explains to you in detail.

Why the weather is not accurate.

Because this science is derived from weather forecasting!

To figure it out. The definition of weather.

The weather is a change in the temperature and rain of a place for a short period of time.

It's always changing.

There are unforeseen circumstances in the sky, and there are people

Because God doesn't listen to you.

How does the weather department make weather forecasts? Why are weather forecasts sometimes inaccurate? According to the latest data and statistics of the emergency management department, the flood disaster in southern China caused 10,000 people in Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, 78 people missing, 729,000 emergency evacuations, more than 8,000 people in the room house collapsed, 97,000 injuries of varying degrees, and direct economic losses of 25.7 billion yuan.

Why can't the heavy rain be advanced**, then**there are not many people, which cannot be done at the moment. At the moment, the accuracy is no more than 100, not to mention the flood disaster. So what about the weather forecast?

Why Weather Forecast?

What is the weather forecast? What do you need? We can see the weather forecast for only a few minutes, but there are 5 links: weather observation, meteorological collection, meteorological processing, comprehensive analysis and product version.

Meteorological observation it is the basis of weather forecasting, from the ground to the sea, from the ground to the sea, from the ground to the satellite, from the automatic weather station to the holiday balloon, the meteorological personnel through the global meteorological observation system, all - multi-level observation of changes in the atmosphere and atmospheric movement.

The world's standard meteorological observatories are essential for weather forecasting, weather forecasts at a fixed time and at the same time, rich, accurate, high-quality atmospheric observations. What is the weather forecast? Why Weather Forecast?

What is the Butterfly Effect? Data collection meteorological observations quickly pass through and gather at major weather centers, where high-speed computers process the data to obtain various charts and graphs reflected in the weather for the presenter to analyze. The weather map is one of the important charts, a weather map is a special map in which the location of each city and observatory is filled in, along with the main rivers, lakes and other geographical symbols.

There are also meteorological elements of each observatory, which at the same time reflect the main weather systems in the corresponding geographical location, what are the distribution characteristics of weather phenomena and what is the relationship between them? There are many other charts that are important tools for meteorologists to analyze and **. What is the weather forecast?

Why Weather Forecast? What is the Butterfly Effect? Data processing, forecaster, with a pen, a piece of paper.

Later, with the application of high-performance computers, numerical products became the main reference basis for weather forecasting. Numerical is a large-scale project, which is a product of meteorology and mathematics, physics and computers. The core is to use the high-performance super crawler quantity to numerically solve part of the microcomputer depicting the atmosphere, and finally obtain the quantification of atmospheric motion.

The integrated analyst studies a variety of charts and numerical products, combines information from meteorological satellites, weather radars, and makes weather forecasts in the future. Due to the experience of each ** device, the accumulated knowledge is also different, so in the reporting process, the conclusions have been different, so we must finally discuss the consultation brainstorming process, which is called the weather. The chief indicator analyzes and summarizes and forms a final conclusion.

It is a satellite cloud image from a meteorological satellite to the ground, combined with the analysis of local meteorological data, and the conclusion reached through consultation.

The meteorological department uses the data to monitor the weather, according to the rules, to predict the weather for the next few days, and then make weather forecasts, because the monitoring is done in the previous days, so it is sometimes inaccurate.

The meteorological department has special instruments to monitor the weather. It can be used for weather forecasting. Because there are errors, there are times when it is inaccurate.

It is based on GPS positioning to the weather, because the weather is changing rapidly, and some science and technology can not completely make the weather accurate.

Answer]: b cannot be highly praised" = "must not be orange sensitive", "all are not" = "some are not", "all weather forecasts cannot be accurate and infallible" = "all weather forecasts are necessarily not accurate" = "some weather forecasts are necessarily not accurate".

Answer]: A All weather forecasts cannot be accurate. It is possible to deduce "some weather forecasts cannot be accurate", and one of the same meanings as this sentence is "some weather forecasts are not necessarily accurate", in which the meaning of the unnecessarily is possible, and the connection is "some weather forecasts may not be accurate", so that the answer to this question is selected.

Others are not on topic. So choose A.

This question belongs to the subordinate relationship between Shanheng's straightforward propositions. "All weather forecasts cannot be accurate" can be launched.

Some weather forecasts cannot always be accurate", and one of the same meanings as this sentence is "some weather forecasts are not necessarily inaccurate".

It does not necessarily mean that Xun's may be scattered, and it is connected to "some weather forecasts may not be accurate".

1.The principle is a system of equations made up of 5 equations, called the original equation. Essentially, the principles are Newton's second law and the laws of thermodynamics. If you are interested, you can study "Dynamic Meteorology".

2.The low accuracy rate is mainly due to the fact that China's current meteorological monitoring network is not very developed, and the density of measuring stations, especially in the plateau area, needs to be improved.

3.There are evaluation criteria and scoring mechanisms for meteorological work. If the report is not good, there are corresponding rectification measures, and there are different regulations in different places.

At present, the accuracy rate can be more than 90% within 3 days and more than 95% within 24 hours. Of course, if you're in a mountainous area, you may feel different.

Unfairness Because it is difficult to be 100% correct in weather forecasting, the reasons that affect the accuracy of weather forecasting: 1. The complexity of atmospheric movement, chaotic motion, butterfly effect, and some movements are even unavoidable. Due to the complexity of atmospheric movements, the current forecast is about ten days at most, and it is only a situation forecast, not a specific weather phenomenon.

2. The observed atmospheric information is not comprehensive. Information is missing in some oceanic, plateau and desert areas, although meteorological satellites make up for a lot of this information. 3. The computing power of computers for numerical prediction and numerical simulation of atmospheric movements is still limited, although the fastest computers are first provided to meteorological services 4. The existing level of meteorological science and technology development is limited.

Forecasting techniques are limited and need to evolve. 5. Subjective factors: the forecaster's forecasting level is limited.

Well, the weather forecast, just the forecast, the actual couple will definitely not be very accurate, it is also calculated with a mathematical formula, a probability.

The direction of the wind is difficult**. The weather forecast can only ** the general direction of the wind group.

Because sometimes the satellites of the weather forecast are obscured by clouds.