Historical inflation rate, what is the inflation rate per year in general?

An old question, I use my original answer.

Some people use ** to estimate that this is not accurate. In 1944, the Bretton Woods system stipulated that there was still an error in the conversion of ** data.

Here I use the box office data to estimate, because I only have this data (the box office revenue of Gone with the Wind in 1939 and the data converted to the present, I will naturally come out by looking back).

Because the movie was released in 1939, not 1944

The highest-grossing movie in the history of cinema is actually Gone with the Wind

Because although Titanic is the first box office to earn money, it is different after more inflationary calibration.

October 2004 U.S. CPI, 1939CPI, SO ESTIMATED IN 2004 U.S. DOLLARS, one U.S. dollar is about U.S. dollars multiplied (note that in 2004, now the U.S. CPI is about 210 or more, which is converted into U.S. dollars, this number is reliable, this is what I learned a few days ago.

o(∩_o

400 million US dollars is equal to about 2 billion, so 1 piece is equal to 5 Luo now.

There is no way to be accurate about this.! It can only be an estimate.

From 1939 to 2000, it was just over 10 times as much, or $10 according to official bank discounts. Now it is estimated at 15 20 dollars.

Let's assume that the inflation rate is to the power of 70 in terms of purchasing power parity, i.e. 1 dollar is equal to the dollar now.

By collating the M2 data and GDP data from 2001 to 2020, we can get the M2 growth rate, GDP growth rate and annual inflation rate in these two decades.

Summarizing the annual inflation rate in the above figure, we can get the total inflation rate in China for the 20-year period from 2001 to 2020, and the compound annualized inflation rate is. To put it simply: December 31, 2020, the purchasing power of the yuan.

It is roughly equivalent to the purchasing power of 100 yuan on January 1, 2001.

Although this data may be a little different from everyone's imagination; But in fact, this data is the same as hamburgers in the last 20 years.

The ** changes are still basically consistent. In addition to meat, flour, vegetables and cooking oil, the hamburger's ** also includes labor and rent, etc.

Thus, the inflation rate we get here reflects the inflation rate for basic consumer goods, which are mainly food. Over the past 20 years, this data is: the total inflation rate, the compound annualized inflation rate.

In layman's terms: for basic meals, on December 31, 2020, the purchasing power of RMB is roughly equivalent to the purchasing power of RMB 100 on January 1, 2001.

So what will be our inflation in the next 10 years for basic food? Although we cannot predict the future; But we can use the inflation rate of the last five years to make an approximate **.

Over the past 5 years, our arithmetic average annual inflation rate has been compounded annualized inflation. At the same time, given the pandemic in 2020 and the downward trend of interest rates in the future, we have reason to believe that in the next ten years, our inflation rate will be around 3% per year for basic food.

(1) Inference based on CPI data.

On the issue of inflation, ** has actually been considered for us a long time ago, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Statistics every month is to tell us what the inflation rate is now compared to last year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's CPI at the end of March 2019 was a year-on-year increase, that is, an increase compared to March 2018, and over the past 25 years, on average, the annual increase in CPI value was about.

Using this data to extrapolate, it can be roughly estimated that 1 million yuan in 10 years is equivalent to the current - 10,000 yuan.

That is to say, according to the official inflation data, the value of 1 million yuan now in 10 years is equivalent to 10,000 yuan today. This is the first data that everyone should remember - according to this data, the overall price of society in 10 years will be the present.

2) Projections based on real inflation.

Believe it or not, I know that most people probably don't trust the statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, so we have a second method of estimating – taking the annual broad money issuance data and subtracting the GDP growth data. The logic of this algorithm is as follows: the total annual GDP can be seen as the increase in real goods and services, and broad money** represents how much money is used to facilitate these transactions, and if the amount of money increases faster than the increase in real goods and services, the extra money is real inflation.

According to the statistics of the past 24 years, on average, China's annual real inflation rate is about. Using this data, it can be roughly estimated that 1 million yuan now will be equivalent to 10,000 yuan in 10 years.

In other words, in 10 years, the real price level of society will be twice as high as it is now.

10,000 yuan, the second data also came out, and I also think this data is more reliable.

3) Extrapolated according to the proportion of the total monetary output of the whole society.

If you are not too satisfied with this number and want to keep your wealth as it is today, then you have only one way - to catch up with the data of the money printed by the central mother!

At the end of 1995, China's broad money volume was trillion yuan, and according to the latest data released by the central bank, this figure has become one trillion yuan at the end of March 2019, an increase of almost 30 times.

According to the data released by the state, it is slightly higher than the 3-year fixed interest rate, about 4%, according to my estimate, almost 10%.

Inflation rate in 2020.

China's inflation rate in 2020 is: The inflation rate is actually the ** range of the price level of residents in one year, compared to 2019, the ** range of consumer prices for the whole year of 2020 is, so the inflation rate is.

Extended Materials. 1. Inflation and its influencing factors.

Inflation is a process of persistence, or in the same sense, of the constant depreciation of money.

There are many factors that affect inflation, but because many of them overlap with each other. The main influencing factors are:

1) Fixed assets.

Total amount of investment. China's total demand growth is relatively fast, mainly driven by investment, and the leading investment pull role is the most obvious, for infrastructure construction, China's fixed assets expansion is mainly manifested in the general processing industry investment growth too fast, which causes the investment structure to the processing industry and non-productive construction tilt, resulting in energy, raw materials and transportation extremely tight, increase the pressure on prices.

2) Economic growth (GDP). Economic growth will also lead to inflation, and when the economy grows, the demand for money will increase, and the supply of money will increase accordingly, so it will bury certain hidden dangers for inflation.

3) Currency issuance (m2). In order to stimulate domestic demand, the state sometimes adopts a moderate monetary expansion policy, and the excess of money** will increase the purchasing power of the market.

At this time, if the first volume can not meet the increased demand, the market will only increase the price, which is determined by the law of value.

Decided. 4) Foreign exchange reserves.

The burden of foreign debt is too heavy and the foreign trade deficit is in deficit.

Excessive size and a large disparity between the international market** and the domestic market** can cause inflation. China is a country with an extremely imbalance between the supply and demand of domestic commodities, and blindly increasing exports has exacerbated the phenomenon that the domestic market demand is greater than the supply, which is an important reason for China's inflation. The growth of exports** lags behind that of imports**, which is also one of the factors that cause prices due to structural imbalances.

In order to make up for the balance of payments.

The state has to adopt the highest level of purchase to increase export products, which affects the domestic consumer goods and exacerbates the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market.

Inflation rate.

Historical data can be found from the National Bureau of Statistics**, Inflation Rate.

All of them are equivalent to CPI increases by default.

The inflation rate, also known as the rate of change in prices, is the ratio of the excess amount of money to the amount of money actually needed, which is used to reflect the degree of inflation and currency depreciation.

In economics, inflation is the increase in the average price level (based on inflation). Using the analogy of a balloon, if its size is the level of object or mill rent, the inflation rate is the degree of balloon inflation.

Or, the degree to which inflation declines in the purchasing power of money.

In practice, inflation is generally not calculated directly, nor is it possible, but through the growth rate of the ** index.

to indirectly represent. Since the consumer is the ultimate reflection of the formation of commodities through all aspects of circulation, it most comprehensively reflects the demand for money in commodity circulation. Hence the Consumer ** Index.

It is the most adequate and comprehensive index that reflects the inflation rate. Countries around the world basically use the consumer joker index (known as the consumer consumption index in China, that is, CPI) to reflect the degree of inflation.

cpi

CPI is also known as the Consumer Price Index.

It is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the changes in the level of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The consumer price index is conducive to understanding the basic situation of changes across the country, analyzing and studying the impact of changes on the social economy and residents' lives, and also meeting the needs of formulating policies and plans and macroeconomic regulation and control at all levels, as well as providing reference and basis for national economic accounting, and is the basis for the state to issue price subsidies to residents.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the consumption indexes, which are important indicators for observing the level of inflation. The categories of consumption indices include: per capita consumption index, consumer price index, consumer price index and consumer confidence index.

ppi

The Chinese name of the PPI is called the Production ** Index.

It reflects the production cost of the enterprise.

An exponent of change.

PPI is released by the National Bureau of Statistics every month, and its data is used in the investigation of the three production links of raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products of the majority of enterprises, and records the changes in the corresponding materials of each link, and forms the final data after complex calculations.

If the price of the production link of the enterprise is generally **, the PPI index will rise. Enterprises will increase their own production costs, but they are unwilling to sacrifice their own profits, so they will increase the ex-factory price of products. As a result, the sales price of the final product is **, and the final sufferer is the consumer.

There is also a core PPI that economists value. Because it is easy to exclude food and energy that are affected by the season, supply and demand, the production cost of enterprises can be measured more accurately. PPI is mainly used by the state to calculate the speed of industrial production development and the economic benefits of enterprises.

It is also an important basis for the state to formulate relevant economic policies and national accounts. It is also often used in conjunction with the CPI to reflect inflation.