What is causal attribution?

At one time, the American scientist Benjamin Franklin.

Listen to the astronomical forecast, which says that it will be about 9 p.m. on December 21, 1743, in Philadelphia in the eastern part of the Americas.

You will be able to see the lunar eclipse.

He was going to take a good look. However, at 7 o'clock in the evening of this day, the wind and clouds suddenly changed, the sky was full of dark clouds, the sky was pitch black, and he could not see the lunar eclipse. A few days later, he received Boston.

The newspaper knew that there was a lunar eclipse there, but not long after reading it, around 11 o'clock, there was a storm from the northeast. Philadelphia is in the southwest, Boston is in the northeast, since it is a northeast wind, Boston should blow the storm first, and then blow to Philadelphia, why is it actually the opposite, Franklin investigated some cities on the line between Philadelphia and Boston, and found that the closer to the northeast, the later the storm occurred, and the closer to the southwest, the earlier the storm occurred. He felt that this was a law of the operation of the atmosphere.

He explained the phenomenon by saying that it was like a sluice, where the water near the sluice was the first to flow, and the river farther away from the sluice was the later to flow.

From an ordinary storm, Franklin thought positively, explored the causes of the occurrence and development of phenomena, discovered the laws of atmospheric flow, and scientifically explained a kind of meteorology. As a result of this discovery, he was named the best meteorologist in the United States that year. "Trees have roots, things have causes", all kinds of things in the world are intertwined, but there must be reasons for their emergence and development.

There must be a cause and an effect, and this imaginary process of associating from cause to effect actually contains a certain amount of logical reasoning ability. Of course, we do not approve of the two scientists' practice of taking advantage of others. British bacteriologist Fleming.

In the study of various staphylococci.

When the mutation occurred, it was suddenly discovered that there was a peculiar green mold in the petri dish, and wherever there was such a mold, the staphylococci disappeared. In response to this accidental phenomenon, Fleming made a conjecture, he speculated that this green mold may be the nemesis of staphylococcus, and after repeated trials and verifications, this conjecture was finally proven, so that there was a new drug specializing in sterilization - penicillin.

Fleming started with the result, thought positively, and finally found the reason and harvested new inventions.

For example, sunlight, water, not enough time, the fruit cannot be formed, that is, the cause, it needs a lot of factors to germinate, obviously the cause and effect is formed, and it expands a lot. To constitute cause and effect, the real cause and effect, nutrients, soil, etc., including not yet being eaten by pests, in the theory of modern science, is "from quantitative change to qualitative change", which you should pay special attention to. 99% of the thoughts are dead here, but others don't pay attention to it, "spring planting" is the cause, that is, you start to have an idea, because of the abbreviation, so many people ignore the "edge".

Time. The so-called "tracing the cause from effect", why there is no result in many thoughts, because the conditions are not sufficient, in fact, there is a result (no result is also a result), which is the abbreviation of "cause, fate, effect", and can get more correct "results"; What about the wrong "cause", because it is contrary to common sense. Take "a grain of millet in the spring."

There is a lot of interference, so it often does not bear the right "fruit", and even the wrong "fruit" will be affected: why doesn't it happen immediately, why doesn't spring and summer come out? Karma is an objectively existing fact and law.

The class nature of human beings is determined by their class status. The argument is the result, that is to say, the people of a certain group have been standing in a certain class position for a long time, that is, in a certain position of social production, and have been producing, living and fighting for a long time in a certain way, that is, they have produced their special style of life, special interests, special demands, special psychology, thoughts, habits, opinions, and attitudes, and their special relations with people of other groups and various things, etc., and so on, and they are different from people of other groups, or on the contrary. This has formed people's special character and special class character.

The argument, i.e., the cause of the result, first talks about the effect, that is, the argument, and then talks about the cause that contributed to the result, which is the method of analysis that traces the cause from the result.

The method of retrospective cause and the method of degree and effect introduced here both include the content of hypothetical reasoning in formal logic, so they are put together.

There are three types of hypothetical reasoning: sufficient conditional hypothetical reasoning, necessary conditional hypothetical reasoning, and sufficient conditional hypothetical reasoning. In order to understand what hypothetical reasoning is, we must first clarify what are the sufficient, necessary, and sufficient conditions.

In Formal Logic, it is said that "a sufficient condition is such a condition, with which there must be a certain result, and without it there is not necessarily no result", in short, there is a necessity, and there is no necessarily otherwise. ·· The necessary condition is that without it there would be no result, and with it there would not necessarily be such a result. In short, there is nothing to be done, and there is nothing to be done.

A sufficient and necessary condition (abbreviated as a sufficient and necessary condition) is a combination of sufficient and necessary conditions. The sufficient condition is that there must be a certain result with it, and without it, there must be no such result. In short, "what is necessary, what is not necessary".

The so-called "sufficient, necessary, and sufficient" is so puzzling that it is not only difficult for ordinary people to understand, but also confuses logicians. For example, the so-called""Sufficient and necessary conditions" (abbreviated as sufficient and necessary conditions) is a combination of sufficient conditions and necessary conditions" is a foolish phrase.

We already know that the characteristics of "sufficient conditions" are "there is inevitable, and there is no necessarily otherwise", the characteristics of necessary conditions are: "there is nothing must not be, there is not inevitable", and the characteristics of sufficient conditions are: "there is inevitable, and there is no must not".

Think about it, how can "sufficient conditions" be a combination of sufficient conditions and necessary conditions?

How can it combine the two qualities of "nothing is not necessarily otherwise" of sufficient conditions and "there is not necessarily something necessary" of "necessary conditions"? This is absolutely impossible. This confused explanation has given rise to a series of confused theories in hypothetical judgment and hypothetical reasoning.

The so-called "sufficient conditions" - there is a necessity, and there is no must not be otherwise", that is, what we call "the cause of many causes, the so-called necessary conditions" - what we call "the cause of the cause": the so-called "sufficient conditions", "there is a necessity, and there is no must not".

The so-called "sufficient and necessary conditions" are "the cause of one cause", and its characteristic is that "there is inevitable, and what is not necessarily not". Now it can be seen that the so-called "sufficient and necessary conditions are the combination of sufficient conditions and necessary conditions" is completely unreasonable, and it is absolutely impossible to combine the two qualities of "nothing is not necessarily otherwise" and "there is not necessarily something". In Logic, it is said: "From the point of view of causality, the sufficient condition is "multiple causes", each cause can produce the same effect independently of each other, and the necessary condition is "joint cause", and several causes must be combined to produce a result, and the sufficient condition is "one cause" (i.e., the only condition), and only this cause can produce this effect."

Causal relationship Cause refers to the phenomenon that causes a certain phenomenon, and effect refers to the phenomenon caused by the action of the cause.

Causality: Antecedent causality, things have a succession and a pair of categories that are dependent on each other. Tracing the cause from effect: first effect and then cause, all kinds of things in the world are intertwined, but there must be reasons for their occurrence and development.