The specific content of the national economic development in 2013

a Economic growth rate.

An 8% increase for the full year is not a problem.

The upside risk outweighs the downside risk.

b. Inflation is generally controllable.

The CPI is expected to be just over 4%.

c Monetary policy.

Two rate hikes are possible during the year.

In the first quarter, there may be "three rates at the same time."

d Exchange rate. RMB may appreciate by 5%.

e Real estate regulation.

If you don't see the effect, no number of rounds of regulation are useless.

The development of overheating, inflationary pressure is high, and it should be moderately cooled.

The first reason, the economic one, is the bursting of the real estate bubble and the other is the local debt crisis. Since the beginning of this year, the sale of ** land in many places has been reduced on a large scale, which is 50% or even 30-40% of the previous years.

The other piece is the arrival of the centralized repayment period, and there will be trillions of dollars to be repaid in the next two years.

Generally speaking, in the first three to five months when a new leader takes office, out of political considerations, he must inherit and carry forward the affirmative prudence, and after three or five months, he will gradually expose some of the problems of the previous leader and show his new ideas and new measures. The same is true for a new chairman of an enterprise. So why the economic crisis could be 2013, most likely in the month of 2013 (second half).

The outlook for the domestic situation still sticks to my view from two years ago, which can be simply boiled down to three sentences: short-term optimism (before the end of 2010 to the beginning of 2011); medium-term pessimism (late 2011 to 2013); Long-term optimism (after 2013). After last year's rapid **, it is still in a downward channel, and it will slowly go up again in the future.

China's economy will only maintain a medium-speed growth trend in the coming period, China's economic growth rate will gradually slow down, around 2015 will drop to about 7%, 2020 will drop to the level of 5%, this is a regular phenomenon of economic development, the economic development of any country will go through such a stage, with the decline in the speed of China's economic growth, many problems will be exposed, many enterprises have been enjoying the benefits of high economic growth, once there is a slowdown in economic growth, Some companies will be at risk of going out of business.

1. Economic development is not felt.

2. Society is getting darker and darker.

3. Moral issues are serious.

4. The gap between the rich and the poor in society is too large.

5, 30 years China will be finished.

The situation is generally stable, and there are bright spots in stability, and there is an increase in stability

The Third Plenary Session of the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will bring a new stage of China's rural reform and development to a new stage of the country's rural reform and development by making arrangements for the current and future major principles and new situations in the rural reform and development work. In order to help readers learn and understand the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee, starting from today, the Party School of the Henan Provincial Party Committee invites well-known experts, scholars and the spirit of the theme interpretation of the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee.

Recently, the financial crisis that caused the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has attracted the attention of the whole world. At a time when countries in the global economy are generally experiencing a "cold winter", the ability of our economy to continue to grow rapidly has become a common concern. So, how do we see our current economic situation?

The party's analysis, the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee, obviously stressed that China's overall situation is good, the economy has maintained relatively rapid growth, the financial industry is operating steadily, and the basic situation of China's economic development has not changed.

China's macroeconomic developments.

One, healthy, rapid development has not changed. China's overall economic situation is currently developing well, healthy, bumper agricultural harvests, and for five consecutive years, remarkable results have been achieved in the adjustment of the industrial structure, the purchasing power of domestic residents has increased substantially, the financial industry is running smoothly, and the momentum of inflation has been basically curbed. From a long-term strategic point of view, China is in a period of important strategic opportunities, and there will be at least 30 years of rapid development from now, which is determined by our actual situation.

Secondly, the impact of the global financial crisis has caused our country to be under control. Although the financial crisis has caused us to lose a part of the financial company, but a small number of losses, which are unlikely to shake the foundation of the stability and security of the entire financial system. In the face of the new situation, the state has adopted flexible and prudent macroeconomic regulation and control policies, monetary policy and fiscal policy tools, made timely adjustments, and introduced a number of policies to promote economic growth and ensure the stable development of the economy.

Finally, to maintain stable economic growth, the most important thing is to let ourselves run. In the new era, China is facing many economic and social problems and new challenges. Against the special backdrop of the international financial crisis, we should take the expansion of domestic demand, especially consumer demand, as our top priority.

At present, the main reason for the lack of domestic demand is the lack of purchasing power of the peasants due to the limited income level, so the expansion of domestic consumption demand must be a new round of rural reform to liberate and develop the rural productive forces. Only by allowing the peasants to increase their incomes and become rich can the huge potential of the rural market be unleashed as soon as possible, and as long as the rural consumer market can begin, China will be able to reduce its dependence on the international market and enable us to enhance our ability to resist international economic risks. We firmly believe that the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee on Rural Reform has brought a new round of spring that will inject new vitality into China's economic growth.