Is it cold this winter? Will this be the coldest winter?

Various parts of Jiangsu have cooled down sharply in recent days, and this winter may be very cold.

How cold will it be this winter and only find out next spring?

This year is colder than in previous years, and autumn in Nanjing is the earliest in a decade. As a result, some netizens began to speculate that this winter is estimated to be extremely cold. How cold is it this winter?

The article believes that this year's climate anomaly is due to the influence of "La Niña". According to historical data, when La Niña occurs: in summer, the probability of high temperature in northern China is relatively high, and the temperature in southwest China is relatively low; In winter, there is a high probability of below-normal temperatures in most parts of China, especially in Yunnan-Guizhou regions.

If La Niña is the climate this winter, it is likely that most of China will have a colder winter, based on past data.

The article also cites the current results of the IRI Center of Columbia University in the United States, which shows that this winter, there is a high probability that South China and Southwest China will be colder.

The article was also reposted on the Internet, and Southern Weekly **also gave it**. After reading the article, many netizens joked: "How cold it will be this year, experts say, wait until next spring to know." ”

No.

Yuan Yuan, a researcher at the Climate Office of the National Climate Center, pointed out that in fact, in early October 2020, in northern China, especially in Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, where the temperature dropped to freezing and snowfell, it was normal. According to the climatological (climatic average over the past 30 years), the first frost began to occur in mid to late September in northern China, and the condition was that the minimum ground temperature dropped to freezing. After entering October, although the temperature in most parts of the north and central and eastern parts is lower than usual, it is time for the cold season to break through the freezing point, and there will be early frost and snowfall.

The sudden cooling during the National Day holiday made people feel strong, which made the rumors spread more and more. There are also rumors in the short video that La Niña caused all this. However, in fact, the cooling process is a weather process, mainly affected by large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, and this weather phenomenon is not necessarily related to La Niña.

Yuan Yuan emphasized that generally speaking, in the winter of the peak period of most La Niña events, the longitudinal degree of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia may increase, and the cold air activities affecting China are more frequent than usual, and the probability of lower temperature in the central and eastern parts of China is higher than that of the same period in normal years. Therefore, whether the winter of 2020 will be cold or warm needs to be comprehensively judged on the basis of scientific analysis.

This year is said to be the coldest winter in decades, but it is only a legend and there is not enough scientific evidence. However, the news also says that this winter of the European Meteorological Office is a once-in-a-millennium ultra-cold winter, and there are different opinions, whether it is the coldest winter or not, we must pay attention to keeping warm and staying healthy.

This year is colder than usual, which is good, indicating that the earth's temperature has not risen! According to custom, the first winter is very cold, and the next year will be a good year!

It should be said: there is no word "most", only the word "more". This year is indeed cold, it is the coldest winter in the past 30 years! Eat plenty of high-calorie foods, exercise properly and keep warm.

Not necessarily, although this year is colder than usual, but who knows if next year will be colder than this year! The global greenhouse effect is getting worse and worse, and it's hard to think about next year, the year after... Will it be colder.

I remember when I was a child, it was really cold, it was minus 30 degrees every day, although this year is colder than in recent years, but it can only be said to be colder!

Cold.

From April to May this year, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences used the Earth System Simulator, a large scientific device, to announce that La Niña events will occur for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2023, and provided accurate warnings to relevant departments. The latest ** results show that the current La Niña state will continue and develop into the autumn and winter of 2022, with Na Hyo peaking in the winter. It is predicted that the temperature in some parts of northern China will be slightly low this winter, and there may be periodic low temperatures under the influence of periodic cold air, and the possibility of extreme cold wave outbreak is high; In some parts of the south, there is a possibility of disasters such as low temperatures, freezing, rain and snow, and it is necessary to remain vigilant and raise awareness of prevention.

This winter is a cold winter, because under the synergistic influence of La Niña events and the warm Arctic Ocean, this winter, China's cold air activities are likely to continue to be strong, and periodic low temperature and extreme cold events are prone to occur. For the early warning of extreme cold events, short- and medium-term weather forecasts and climate trends of more than two weeks should be strengthened, and the prevention and early warning of freezing rain and snow disasters should be improved. At the same time, the agriculture and animal husbandry, energy and transportation industries need to pay close attention to the early warning of freezing rain and snow disasters, and formulate effective preventive measures and emergency plans.

A few days ago, it was rumored on the Internet that after the end of the super El Niño this summer, it entered a La Niña state in August, so this winter is likely to be a cold winter, so what is La Niña? The so-called La Niña, also known as anti-El Niño, is generally measured by the SST anomaly of the region (the equatorial Pacific sea area between 120°W and 170°W and 5°N/N). When the SST anomaly in the area falls below minus negative degrees Celsius, it is called La Niña.

If the La Niña state lasts for more than 5 months, it is considered a La Niña event, and meteorological data indicate that in August 2016, the sea surface temperature anomaly index of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean reached negative degrees Celsius, marking the official entry into La Niña.

Statistics show that since 1951, there have been 17 La Niñas, of which 14 times the national average winter temperature is lower than the average of the same period in history, that is, the winter is colder than usual, remember the beginning of 2008 in the south, a wide range of low temperature rain and snow freezing? That's La Niña's fault.

However, meteorological experts also said that the situation of La Niña phenomenon bringing cold winters is also unexpected, and the factors affecting the climate are very complex, especially in the context of global warming, it cannot be simply speculated that La Niña will cause cold winters, and the actual climate characteristics are generally the result of a combination of factors.

For example, from 1998 to 1999, when the same super El Niño turned La Niña, the winter temperature in most parts of China was significantly higher, mainly because the climate warming rate in China was very fast from the 80s to the 90s of the last century, and 1998 was another El Niño year, and the entire atmosphere warmed very fast, so in winter, the warm background caused by global warming and El Niño did not subside, and the cooling produced by La Niña was much smaller than the warming in the large climate background. So that year continued to maintain a warm winter state.

Meteorological experts said that from the historical statistics, this year's cold winter should not be surprising, this winter, affected by La Niña, our country will be colder as a whole, but the cold is not national, the difference between the north and the south is very large, in comparison, the degree of cold in the north of our country is more obvious, and there will be a cold situation in the areas that continue to be warm. Friends who are afraid of the cold should be prepared to keep warm.