The North Korean nuclear issue and the prisoner s dilemma

It seems inappropriate to use the prisoner's dilemma as a metaphor for the North Korean nuclear issue. The prisoner's dilemma means that there are two prisoners, who are interrogated separately. At this time, the question they are all thinking about is:

The other party recruited, but I didn't, and as a result, I was sentenced, and the other party gave a light sentence; I recruited, but the other party didn't, I betrayed my friend; Both sides recruited at the same time.

The North Korean nuclear issue is a perverse view of security: pressure, sanctions, blockades, and intimidation by the United States, Japan, and South Korea have made North Korea feel insecure. In order to gain a sense of security, North Korea seeks long-range attacks** and nuclear **.

In turn, the United States, Japan, and South Korea feel insecure, and they have further pressured, sanctioned, blocked, and intimidated North Korea, while North Korea has become more determined to seek long-range attacks and nuclear ......It's such a vicious circle between the two sides.

Let's assume that there are only two sides in the North Korean nuclear issue: North Korea and the United States.

From the overall point of view of both sides, the United States does not sanction North Korea and North Korea does not study nuclear **, this situation will be good for both sides, that is, on the whole, North Korea will be richer, the United States will have one less threat, and the world will be more peaceful. (i.e., maximizing the overall benefit).

However, the DPRK will choose to study nuclear ** if it only thinks in the best interests of its own.

Because: from the North Korean side, 1Assuming that the United States does not sanction North Korea, North Korea's choice to study nuclear ** will make itself more militarily powerful.

2.Assuming that the United States imposes sanctions on North Korea, North Korea should still choose to study nuclear **, at least it will have strong military strength.

Therefore, no matter what the United States chooses, North Korea will eventually choose to study nuclear ** out of the consideration of maximizing its own interests.

The same is true from the perspective of the United States, no matter what North Korea decides, sanctions against North Korea will be the best choice.

Therefore, the two sides will choose a situation that is not good for both sides as a whole, that is, North Korea chooses nuclear weapons and the United States chooses sanctions!

But this is not necessarily the conclusion of this prisoner's dilemma, and if both sides are given only one chance to choose, then the above conclusion will occur; If you choose multiple times, you may end up with the best overall scenario. Because after many games, both sides will realize that the overall benefit can only be maximized by giving up nuclear weapons and sanctions.

North Korea wants to become a great power.

I thought of getting rid of my own domestic crisis and diverting contradictions.

Interests are paramount, and North Korea is the one that compares that, but with it, China's pressure in the northeast is much less. It is certain that China is suppressed, but the quantity is very important, and it is very tricky to have nuclear weapons, at least this amount, it will not drive Kim San crazy, but it will definitely limit the number of long-range delivery technology and nuclear bombs, and China's mid-course anti-missile success is a great benefit to China in the North Korean nuclear issue. The Jin family is luxurious and corrupt, and the foolish people are doing a good job, and the Jin family has such a unit, the political police.

You want to scold the Jin family in their country, and you will disappear the next day, in fact, please go and be shot... So, the Jin family can rule for a while. And we have to use this time to strengthen the country and develop, as the saying goes, you can't be rich for three generations, and it's no wonder that the Jin family's gameplay doesn't collapse.

Therefore, we must cooperate with and support the sanctions, but we must not be too desperate, and when China recovers and rises in the east of the world, and the US hegemony weakens and falls, it doesn't matter what the North Korean Kim family and China want to deal with.

In short, we must strengthen our own national defense, air defense system, especially the deployment of air defense on the border between China and North Korea, so that nuclear bombs lose the ability to drop, especially the simultaneous interception technology of multiple missiles, build a perfect air defense system, cooperate with the international community, and expand international influence. Everything is handwritten, and I hope to support adoption.