How long will the rural to urban migration continue?

How long will the rural-to-large city migration last? In the future, the rural population will change from spontaneous transfer to passive transfer, and a large number of rural people will continue to flow to cities for a long time. There are two key factors:

The time it takes for urbanization to move into cities and modernize agriculture. There are two key factors for the migration of rural population to urban areas, one is the rate of urbanization, and the other is the degree of agricultural modernization.

At present, China's urbanization rate has only reached. Although for the first time the urban population surpassed the rural population, this is not the end, on the contrary, it has just begun. Yesterday, national statistics announced that China's urbanization rate has reached 900 million for the first time, surpassing the rural population for the first time, and China's urbanization into cities is expected to be completed by 2035.

Urbanization inevitably leads to the loss of rural population. As a key area of urbanization transformation, the loss of rural population will definitely increase in the future. With the acceleration of urbanization and the increase in the rate of urbanization, the rural population will inevitably lead to a large number of urban migrations.

According to statistics, by 2035, the migration of people to cities needs to be mitigated. Agricultural modernization, mechanization, scale-up and intensification are also key factors contributing to rural population mobility. Now there are many young people who want to go back to the countryside to start their own businesses.

There will definitely be more and more young people who have such feelings in the future. The biggest changes they have brought to the countryside or agriculture are modern sinicization, mechanization, scale, and intensification. It can be said that the higher the degree of agricultural modernization and mechanization, the smaller the population engaged in agriculture, and the scale and intensification have also promoted the development of agriculture towards modernization.

The higher the degree of modernization, the fewer people are engaged in agriculture.

However, our current agriculture is still labor-intensive and has not departed from the scope of the small-scale peasant economy. At present, agriculture still needs a large number of people to engage in it, which determines that there is still room for survival in rural areas. With the advent of agricultural modernization, one person can cultivate all the cultivated land in a village, and there is no need for more people.

Many will lose their ability to survive in the countryside and will be forced to move to the cities. Foreign experience tells us that if a developed country has a high degree of urbanization, there are fewer people engaged in agriculture. From these two perspectives, there are still 600 million people in rural areas, and the extent of this reduction in the future depends on the degree of development of our agricultural modernization.

The massive migration of the rural population to the cities is an inevitable trend in the future, not the will of one person. The passive transfer of rural population to urban areas is a long process that includes factors such as national development, agricultural development and urbanization.

It will continue for 5 years or more. Because the big city is what the young population yearns for, young people nowadays have almost no idea of wanting to stay in the countryside, so as long as there are young people in the village, then they will migrate to the big city.

The mass migration of people from rural to urban areas will continue for decades, but eventually there will be the same phenomenon as in developed cities, with reverse urbanization and urban migration to rural areas.

The mass migration of people from rural areas to cities will not last long, because the countryside is also urbanizing.

The main reasons for the migration of a large number of rural people to cities are: the balance between urban and rural economic development, the demand for urban economic development, the import of labor from urban economic development, the small amount of labor demand from urban and rural industries, and the superiority of urban infrastructure and education and medical conditions.

Urban development, employment prospects are better than those in rural areas, and incomes are high, and rural areas can no longer meet people's living needs by relying on traditional agricultural development.

Impact: Increasing the impact of urban transportation, housing, employment, social order, etc.; At the same time, it will promote the development of the city's economy.

for rural areas, resulting in the loss of labor; At the same time, it has brought "extra money" to the rural areas and promoted the improvement of rural living standards.

1. The economic development of urban and rural areas is unbalanced, and the development of urban economy requires a large amount of labor input.

2. There are many employment opportunities in urban areas and relatively few employment opportunities in rural areas, and there is a large amount of labor to be exported.

3. The urban infrastructure is perfect, and the education, living and medical conditions are relatively superior.

4. The scale of rural operations is small, the individuals are scattered, and the pricing power of farmers of agricultural products is weak.

First, a large amount of cultivated land has been abnormally reduced. Cities are generally built in plain areas with good natural conditions, which are also the best agricultural areas. According to the plan, China's urbanization needs to occupy 3-6% of the country's land, the proportion seems to be small, but the area is not small, about 300,000 to 600,000 square kilometers, that is, equivalent to one-third to one-half of the total area of China's plains.

In order to occupy so much good land, how can the original intention of allowing the population remaining in the rural areas to obtain more arable land through urbanization can be realized? In fact, due to the rapid development of urbanization, the wind of land enclosure is still prevalent, with the rise of a large number of luxury factories, buildings and various "image projects", a large area of fertile land in the past has disappeared, making the contradiction of more people and less arable land in China more prominent. In recent years alone, 38 million mu of cultivated land has been lost, resulting in a large number of landless, unemployed, and insecure peasants, and this is also an important reason for the successive declines in grain output.

Second, it produces serious "urban diseases". Rapid urbanization, too large cities, and the concentration of too many people in cities in a short period of time will inevitably lead to mass unemployment, shortage of fresh water and energy, traffic congestion, increased crime, environmental degradation, and increased risk of various crises.

Some experts said that urbanization does not necessarily produce "urban diseases", and the root causes of "urban diseases" lie in the one-sidedness of the guiding ideology, the irrationality of the reform of the industrial structure and layout, and the development mode of "low-density expansion". These opinions are not unreasonable, but the question is whether we can ensure that in practice the guiding ideology is not one-sided, whether the planning can be scientific and reasonable, and whether the management can be strictly in place.

The third is the "bubble" of real estate. Nowadays, many cities are building houses too fast and too much, occupying a lot of bank funds, if the supply is seriously overdemand, or ** exceeds the ability of the citizens to bear, there will be a large number of vacant houses, resulting in an economic crisis. Experience has shown that the economic crisis caused by the real estate bubble will take many years to ease.

Fourth, the city is "in ruins". There are two possible reasons for this consequence: first, there is a serious oversupply of the above-mentioned real estate, and a large number of buildings are vacant; Second, China's population will decline in the middle of this century.

According to the assumption of China's population policy, after reaching the peak of 1.7 billion, the total population will gradually decline, and eventually reach the ideal size of about 700 million. So with so many large-scale cities built today, will there be a day when there will not be so many people living in the future?

China's urbanization, in terms of its scale, is unprecedented in human history, and it may also be unparalleled. Its arduousness and complexity cannot be compared with that of any developed country. It's not just about today, it's about tomorrow, it's about future generations.

When a city is built, it cannot be easily demolished; What is lost in the process of urbanization is also difficult to recover. We should take a steady pace, maximize the benefits of urbanization, and try to avoid or reduce the drawbacks that may be brought about by carelessness and blindness.

It may be that the living conditions in the countryside are good enough to attract young people in the countryside to stop going out to work, and urban people will not be able to stand the congestion and pollution. Moreover, the social and public resources in rural areas can reach or approach the level of cities, and they can enjoy the same public services in education, medical care, employment, culture, entertainment, pension, transportation, etc. Will there be a large return of people from urban areas to rural areas?

There is also the possibility that the economic situation will deteriorate further, with urban factories continuing to close and stop production, and urban businesses** also shrinking and dying due to the decline in enterprises. Channels for absorbing rural workers are shrinking or clogged. Then, many people who go out can only retreat to the countryside.

Perhaps the most ideal state is to fully implement urban-rural integration and eliminate the differences between urban and rural areas. Like Huaxi Village, Daegu Village, and Linyi Village in their heyday, rural life was more nourishing, healthy, and affluent than urban life, and all the superior resources of the city were in the countryside. As more and more migrant workers go out to the city, the countryside gradually becomes a hollow village, and those left behind are the elderly and children.

Most of the people who just started going out will choose to return to their hometowns after experiencing the storm, while the wealthy people in the cities will gradually choose to live and work in the countryside.

After all, rural life is free and welfare is good. You can grow vegetables in your own yard without worrying about pesticide residues; You can plant trees in front of the house and enjoy the shade. In the next 50 years, there will be a massive influx of urban people into the countryside for these reasons.

Perhaps, in the coming decades, the best way to live is farming. Didn't Tao Yuanming say "planting beans under Nanshan"? Retiring to the countryside has always been the pursuit of literati.

In the future, new agriculture may become a new trend of this era. The rich lived in the countryside and became new peasants, and peasants became workers. Thirty years to the east of the river, thirty years to the west of the river.

In rural areas with less vehicle exhaust, less heavy industry pollution, and less sewage discharge, the air is so clean that you can smell the fragrance of the earth after rain. How happy. If you live in the city and breathe smog and exhaust fumes every day, even the water in the city is not sweet and unpleasant.

Just like Haizi City wrote, from tomorrow onwards, care about food and vegetables. Living in the countryside, there is no shortage of food, there is no intrigue between people, and the simple folk customs make everyone feel like relatives. In short, in the future, the rural environment will become the mainstream goal pursued by urban people, and people will become accustomed to living in rural areas.

There should be. Because housing prices in the cities are too expensive to pay, they have to go back to the countryside. Rural areas are cheaper.

In the future, there will indeed be a trend of urban population returning to rural areas, because many industries are now strongly supported by the state, and many young people choose to return to rural areas to start businesses.

I think that in the future, many urban people will return to the countryside, because the development and welfare of the rural areas are getting better and better, and many people may return to the countryside because of the saturation of the cities.

It should be. Because the pressure on the cities is very great, and the focus is now on developing the rural areas, it is possible that the rural economy will be better in the future.

No, it won't. Because people who live in the city, they have adapted to the life in the city, and they will not return to the countryside.

I think it will. Because the pressure of urban life is too great now, many people, including me, want a comfortable life, and many people want to go back to the countryside to live a slow life.

Yes. Because this is the inevitable trend of urban development, just like developed countries, there will be a phenomenon of reverse urbanization.

Yes, because the living environment in the city is not very good, or the air in the countryside is good.

The focus of reform shifted from rural to urban areas in 1984.

On October 20, 1984, the Third Plenary Session of the 12th CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing. The Luzi meeting adopted the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on the Reform of the Economic System," which expounded the necessity and urgency of reforming the entire economic system with the focus on cities, and proposed that the socialist economy is a planned commodity economy based on public ownership.

The meeting stressed the need to enhance the vitality of enterprises, establish a correct relationship between the state and enterprises owned by the whole people, and expand the autonomy of enterprises. Establish a correct relationship between workers and enterprises, and ensure that workers are masters in enterprises.

At the same time, state-owned enterprises have separated the administration from the enterprise and separated the ownership rights from the management rights, so that the enterprises have become relatively independent economic entities, socialist commodity producers and operators who operate independently and assume responsibility for their own profits and losses, have the ability to transform and develop themselves, and become legal persons with certain rights and obligations.

The decision of this meeting broke through many issues, especially on the major issues of commodity economy and the law of value"Left"The ideological bondage clarifies the vague perception that exists among many people.

This meeting marked the beginning of the reform from the rural areas to the cities and the entire economic field, and thus China's economic structural reform entered the second stage, that is, the stage of reform."

Prior to the plenary session, the relevant departments of the CPC Central Committee had done a great deal of preparatory work and conducted various investigations and discussions. It was precisely because of thorough preparation and deliberation that the decision on reform was made at the plenary session. For the first time, the decision clearly pointed out that China's socialist economy is not a planned economy, but a planned commodity economy based on public ownership.

Under the historical conditions at that time, clearly pointing out that the socialist economy was a planned commodity economy was a considerable breakthrough and a major development of Marxist political economics.

China promotes the construction of cities and towns, and encourages everyone to go to the fields to work and live in the city. On the other hand, after many people earn money, even if our country does not support them to go to the city, they will also go to the city to buy houses, after all, the living environment and natural environment in the city are better than those in the countryside. However, in terms of how to improve the construction of towns, the countryside may exist.

Of China's 800 million peasant households, not every peasant household has the standard to live in the city, and not every peasant household is willing to go to the city for daily life. It is these scattered villages, especially those in the harsh environment of daily life, that will gradually become unsettled and eventually fade. The villages with a better living environment and a superior geographical location will always exist unless the local government is engaged in large-scale capital construction and wants to relocate. I believe that because of the continuous advancement of modernization and urbanization, the traditional definition of rural areas will continue to decline until they disappear, due to the migration of population to towns.

In the future, the countryside will be a "unit" rather than a residential area, just like today's big farms, which will be an area where farmers will be "employed". Of course, the farmer is not a traditional status name, but a job title. The relatively high level of urbanization is the concrete embodiment of the enhancement of China's overall strength, and the vast majority of farmers (also called agricultural and animal husbandry employees) will settle in small towns in the future. The Chinese population will be generally spread in first-tier cities, metropolises, small and medium-sized cities, small cities and towns according to the comprehensive reasons of different positions, different living habits and economic capabilities, and the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Although the cost of living in the city has increased, there are many development opportunities and benefits, and at the same time, the hard work is enough, the pressure has become the driving force, and the quality of life has also improved.

A few acres of land is too insignificant for a family.

Therefore, if you see the future development trend, if you have the right level, you can justifiably immigrate to invest in big cities, which is not just a simple problem for facilitating children's entrance exams and medical treatment for the elderly. With the development of society, all undertakings will be reformed and innovated along with the development trend of the situation, and it is difficult to integrate into the needs of rapid development if it remains unchanged. Rural farmers into the city will also appear relevant policies and supporting facilities promulgated, especially the conclusion of the reform of the household registration system, part of the daily life in the city, and will no longer cultivate land land resources of a part of the people, will become the population of big cities, only these real farmers can be regarded as rural residents, the conclusion of reform and innovation, the proportion of real rural households will be open-minded to reduce.