Will fuel vehicles be completely phased out in 10 years, and why?

Yes. AutomobileGasoline engineIt will not be eliminated in a short time, and after ten years, it is possible to be eliminated slowlyBecause the new energy vehicle is still not mature enough, its application is not extensive, the cruising range is short, the slope of some urban roads is relatively large, and the new energy vehicle is very difficult to drive, so the gasoline engine car can also be maintained for a period of time and will not be eliminated.

1. Comprehensively and scientifically compare and analyze the technical cost, energy saving and emission reduction of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.

market demand and other aspects of the potential and role.

2. Starting from the national conditions of China's vast territory and uneven development, organize and carry out in-depth and detailed comprehensive analysis and judgment, adapt measures to local conditions, implement policies by classification, and support qualified localities and fields to carry out pilot projects such as the first substitution of urban bus rentals and the establishment of fuel vehicle prohibition zones, and on the basis of success, coordinate the study and formulation of fuel vehicle exit schedules.

Ten years later, fuel vehicles will not be eliminated, and all will not be eliminated, but the so-called new energy vehicles "pure electric vehicles" can survive ten years is still very difficult to say, it is likely not to survive. I read an answer written by a friend before, and I feel that it is very classic, and that friend's idea is that the future is the era of "non-plug-in" hybrids, and "pure electric cars" are just a passing cloud.

Yes. Judging from the current trend, the elimination of fuel vehicles is getting faster and faster. With the use of fossil fuels less and less, the first year by year, the national level of pollution pressure and other factors, the development of new energy and the development of new energy-related equipment have been gradually strengthened.

It is believed that in the near future, when the breakthrough of energy storage technology arrives, all walks of life will undergo earth-shaking changes.

It is certain that fuel vehicles will not be completely eliminated. However, fuel vehicles will first withdraw from the field of public transportation, urban short-distance small logistics, mobile logistics within factories, some rental fields, tourist area shuttle buses, and fixed tourist line vehicles that can provide relatively standardized charging facilities.

For areas with complex use scenarios and poor convenience of electricity, fuel vehicles are still the first choice. The exit of the car in use needs to be standardized and orderly, otherwise the social resources will be wasted.

In 10 years, fuel vehicles will face elimination, but they will not be completely eliminated. There is only one reason"oil"Literally, resources are finite, and previous overexploitation has accelerated the depletion of oil. Oil prices continue**.

In addition, emissions are tightening, whether it is Europe, the United States or the mainland, the regulations on energy conservation and emission reduction and green emission standards are becoming more and more stringent, and it is impossible to fully withdraw fuel vehicles in a short period of time, but the development of new energy has become a trend.

It is safe to say that in ten years, fuel vehicles will not be eliminated, fuel vehicles have a history of more than 100 years, and the technology is very mature. The problem faced by the tram is that "low energy density, long charging time, obvious cycle and temperature attenuation, high cost and low life, if it completely replaces the "diesel locomotive" to build charging piles, it is too difficult, so the "pure electric vehicle" has been raised many times in the development process but has been knocked down many times.

Fuel vehicles can not be eliminated, because fuel vehicles are eliminated, oil extraction, refining, storage, transportation, sales (gas stations), fuel vehicle manufacturers, spare parts suppliers, maintenance of the entire industry must be changed, followed by new energy environmental protection vehicles after a large number of production will also produce corresponding environmental problems. The most environmentally friendly is to vigorously develop human-powered bicycles, but there will be many unsolvable problems and uncertainties in national environmental protection policies in real life.

Although Europe has announced a timetable for the ban on fuel sales regardless of country, China does not have a clear directive, and some people ** after 2030. Ten years, that is, in 2028, there is no explicit ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, how can we say that they will all be eliminated? Besides, the ban is just not allowed to sell, and you can open the same as if you buy it.

Taking the fuel vehicle mentioned the day before the ban as an example, even if it is scrapped after ten years, it will take ten years before it can be fully withdrawn, while private cars will be scrapped after ten years.

There are too many "bugs" in new energy vehicles, it is impossible to completely replace fuel vehicles in the short term, before the battery, mileage, charging and other technical and facility problems are not well solved, fuel vehicles are still the main force, but ten years, charging piles may be able to solve, but can technical problems such as batteries and charging speed really be solved?

It should be the gradual elimination of traditional fuel vehicles. Generally speaking, this is the most promoted behavior, specifically analyzed: for China, the main consideration should be energy security, reduce dependence on oil, China is currently the world's largest oil importer and consumer.

And oil is controlled by the US military and petrodollars. Excessive dependence on oil is China's strategic weakness, so the country should promote the gradual elimination of traditional fuel vehicles and reduce dependence on oil. The second factor is the reduction of emissions, including greenhouse gas emissions.

I have deeply considered this problem, understood the bottleneck of the development of new energy vehicles and batteries, and I dare not say that it is a 100% decision, because now the development of batteries has encountered a great calm, and it is difficult to break through the long kilometers of driving. Because today's materials and technologies can find a good balance between energy storage and safety of batteries. Pure electric can not complete the replacement of machinery, any mechanical, this is still relatively stable, long-term endurance and good.

This is really not accurate, the key is to look at the development of new energy technology, the most important thing is the battery life.

I also want to laugh when I say that oil trucks are eliminated, those who pull fruits, seafood and other long-distance goods of several hundred meters can't run to other provinces.

Today's fuel vehicles still cannot be completely replaced. But new hybrids, new electric cars, or other new energy sources will emerge all the time. Change is a certainty, but in which direction I can't say, I understand it myself, and there is a high probability that the hybrid will win.

Of course, if there is a huge revolution in battery technology, it may be truly pure electric.

To sum up, there are too many "bugs" of new energy vehicles, it is impossible to completely replace fuel vehicles in the short term, before the battery, mileage, charging and other technical and facility problems are not well solved, fuel vehicles are still the main force, but ten years, charging piles may be able to solve, but can technical problems such as batteries and charging speed really be solved.

The rapid development of new energy vehicles is a good thing, compared with fuel vehicles, it is less polluting and has great benefits to the environment, but I will never believe that fuel vehicles will be completely eliminated after 10 years.

When the day the oil runs out, the fuel vehicles will definitely be eliminated!

Electric vehicles and other energy vehicles are the direction of development, but in many aspects of performance, such as acceleration, refueling distance, now electric vehicles can not be compared with gasoline vehicles, in addition to the constraints of electric vehicles by the battery, it is difficult to compare with gasoline vehicles in a short period of time, even if electric vehicles reach electric vehicles in various indicators, their cost and selling price far exceed gasoline vehicles, gasoline vehicles have low production costs, good performance, as long as there is oil, there will be many people in use, so before the oil is used up, it will not be eliminated at all, The oil has not been used up for a long time, about 30 years.

The storage capacity of fuel is limited, so there will be a day when fuel vehicles will be eliminated.

At present, new energy vehicles of various powers are developing rapidly and will slowly replace fuel vehicles.

Hope this helps,!!

Now the country is gradually reforming fuel vehicles. In the West, 50% of cars have already switched to diesel. The Volkswagen version of the diesel sedan once wanted to enter China on a large scale, but it was withdrawn due to various reasons such as oil problems.

At present, China has a three-step strategy for the problem of automobile energy: 1. Replace gasoline vehicles with more efficient and energy-saving diesel (natural gas) and use them as electric vehicles. 2 Exclusively use electric vehicles.

3. Use hydrogen fuel cells that do not pollute the environment. Hydrogen fuel is already being used in aerospace energy and in automobiles in some countries.

It should not be eliminated, as far as the current situation in our country is concerned, electric vehicle charging piles. It's a big problem. In addition, the cold weather in the northeast is also a test for electric vehicles, and the range will be halved.

Electric vehicles and other energy vehicles are the direction of development, but in many aspects of performance, such as acceleration, refueling distance, now electric vehicles can not be compared with gasoline vehicles, in addition to the constraints of electric vehicles by the battery, it is difficult to compare with gasoline vehicles in a short period of time, even if electric vehicles reach electric vehicles in various indicators, their cost and selling price far exceed gasoline vehicles, gasoline vehicles have low production costs, good performance, as long as there is oil, there will be many people in use, so before the oil is used up, it will not be eliminated at all, The oil has not been used up for a long time, about 30 years.

Hello, now the country vigorously supports the development of new energy vehicles, many car manufacturers are also vigorously developing new energy vehicles, China is expected to stop selling fuel vehicles in 2035, and completely ban fuel vehicles on the road by 2055. New energy vehicles are a new development trend, I hope it will help you.

Now the world's oil reserves are enough for people to use for decades, and now many manufacturers are studying alternative energy sources of oil, I believe that it will appear in a few years, but cars that do not burn oil will not be eliminated in a few years, maybe in a few decades.

The people who build electric cars have been arguing about this. Officials have also released rumors that fuel vehicles will be banned from sale in 30 years, but in the end it depends on the development of electric vehicles.

Before there is no technical breakthrough in the charging and battery life of electric vehicles, fuel vehicles will always be kings!

Fuel vehicles will not be phased out at present, and in ten years, it is possible that they will be phased out slowly.

Fuel vehicles will not be eliminated now, first of all, new energy vehicles can not replace fuel vehicles, although many car owners have purchased new energy vehicles, but there are some scenarios that can not be replaced by new energy vehicles.

Especially in the cold areas of the north, the battery of new energy vehicles will be affected by temperature, resulting in insufficient endurance, while traditional fuel vehicles are not greatly affected by temperature, so car owners in the north basically use fuel vehicles.

The endurance of fuel vehicles is strong, and you can continue to drive when you fill up the fuel tank, especially for car owners who often run long distances, it is more convenient to use fuel vehicles and save time waiting for new energy vehicles to be charged.

At present, the technology of new energy vehicles is not very mature, and many functions of fuel vehicles cannot be surpassed by new energy vehicles, especially for some car owners who pursue car performance, they will still choose fuel vehicles.

Can you buy a fuel car before it is off sale?

It is not recommended to buy in first- and second-tier cities, but it is possible to buy in third-tier cities and below. Judging from the previous experience of switching from China V to China VI, first- and second-tier cities are highly motivated to respond to policies and implement them strictly. Many manufacturers were too optimistic before, so that they were caught off guard when the switch policy was introduced, and they could only sell their bones.

Finally, a mandatory stop on the road means an official obsolescence. It will take at least 5 to 10 years from the end of sales around 2030 to the complete cessation of fuel vehicles on the road, and some relatively backward areas may survive even longer.

In other words, some countries and societies will actively promote the suspension of sales in 2030, so it is possible to achieve this in some countries and regions, but it is still too early to completely phase out fuel vehicles, according to the current technology and infrastructure.

It's possible. The biggest problem at the 2030 pass is renting, and charging still can't be solved, so it can be said that gasoline vehicles at the 2030 pass are impossible to be eliminated, and it is difficult to stop selling. The biggest problem is that charging still can't be solved.

At present, whether it is the convenience of installing charging piles or the carrying capacity of the entire power grid, there is no sign of solving it within 9 years. The most popular road for trams is that rural areas surround cities, and rural users who generally do not have commercial purposes rarely have the needs of long-distance travelers who drive across cities and provinces, and the single travel distance is short and the travel interval is long.

It can be seen that there is no long-distance demand, basically just a short-distance tool, and those closer to the city and county can buy an entry-level electric car with a range of 200km; Those with less travel demand or basically no long-distance demand can buy low-profile electric vehicles with a range of 300km; Those who have more travel needs can buy hybrid vehicles, and short-distance travel basically relies on the pure electric range of 100km.

Combined with the "super slow charging" of rural home electricity, such as the 2kW of mini EV, "can be charged 10 kilometers per hour, and can be charged at any time, even if the quiet type is calculated according to the 300 km range, from 0-100%, 30 hours to fully charge, which can fully meet the needs of rural vehicles."

3. From stopping R&D, stopping sales to stopping on the road, it has been at least 15 years Many people have not figured out the difference between stopping R&D, stopping sales and stopping on the road, in fact, the time span represented by these three is at least 15 years.

First of all, stopping R&D means the beginning of obsolescence. At present, the time node announced by domestic and international car companies to stop the development of a new generation of fuel vehicles is generally between 2025-2030. The R&D cycle for fuel vehicles is usually 3 to 4 years, which means that there is still a "may" launch of new vehicles between 2028 and 2034.

Now mature traditional car companies have at least two or three brands, more than 10 models, nearly 100 models, and two or three facelifted or newly launched models are listed every year, and the listing node is usually called ME or MI. After 2030, this pace will slow down greatly, and if the research and development of new energy vehicles cannot keep up, or even cut off, the risk of losing market share is extremely high for a car company.

Second, the discontinuation means a countdown to obsolescence. The response to the suspension of sales is similar to the withdrawal of models, and manufacturers usually reserve spare parts for 3 to 10 years before the EOP of old models, and then dismantle the old production line and carry out production line transformation to pave the way for new models. According to conventional estimates, the shutdown time should be around 2031.

Therefore, what may happen at this point in 2030 is that fuel vehicles will be discontinued.

Finally, a mandatory stop on the road means an official obsolescence. My personal estimate is that it will take at least 5 to 10 years from the cessation of sales around 2030 to the complete cessation of fuel vehicles on the road, and some relatively backward areas may survive even longer.

Of course, it depends on the game between national determination and public opinion. During this period, there may be a depreciation of fuel vehicles, second-hand vehicles, and the appreciation of spare parts. At this stage, it's really time to erect a tombstone for the fuel car, and Jesus can't keep it.