Econometric model and empirical analysis of the impact of GDP growth and foreign exchange reserves o

The exchange rate in the empirical analysis of foreign exchange reserves is quantified in this way:

1. For example, they are all starting to ask for dollars. This has increased the demand for renminbi in the market, and no one in the market wants renminbi anymore, so they use a large amount of dollars in their hands to sell dollars in the market and buy renminbi. This can be explained by the relationship between supply and demand, the exchange rate is the ratio of the currencies of the two countries before, so the central bank of China, through the foreign exchange market, the relative demand for the dollar has increased, to put it bluntly, now for some reason the yuan has depreciated to 7, that is:

1. The demand for the yuan in the market has decreased, making the yuan start to become valuable again relative to the dollar

Suppose the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is 6

2. To put it simply, if the foreign exchange reserves increase and the foreign exchange increases, the foreign exchange will be cheaper, and the RMB will depreciate relative to the RMB. It's like the amount of potatoes in the vegetable market is large, and the amount of potatoes in the vegetable market has naturally dropped, the original 1 yuan and 1 catty, and now 1 yuan and 2 catties, potatoes are still potatoes, but the money seems to be more valuable than before. Huilong.com cnfxtrader said:

However, China's long-term foreign exchange control and exchange rate strategy have made the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates not reflect a real linear relationship. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves are mainly invested in overseas financial assets such as high-credit bonds, bonds of international financial organizations, institutional bonds and corporate bonds, and the operation has always adhered to the business philosophy of long-term and strategic development.

3. Foreign exchange reserves are mainly foreign currency assets held by **, which are used as investments and for financial transactions when necessary to support the local currency exchange rate.

Each country will theoretically maintain a certain amount of foreign exchange reserves, as for the amount of foreign exchange reserves, it depends on its national economic factors, such as the scale and speed of national economic development, the degree of economic openness, the development of foreign countries, the ability to use foreign capital and international financing, and the country's macroeconomic regulation and control capabilities.

When the foreign exchange market is in a state of oversupply, the mainland will release renminbi to absorb the excess foreign exchange in the market**, and the foreign exchange absorbed will be allocated to the foreign exchange reserves, so the mainland's foreign exchange reserves have continued to increase over the years, and the total foreign exchange reserves of the mainland now rank first in the world.

Holding a large amount of foreign exchange reserves has both advantages and disadvantages for countries, because each country has different economic factors, so there is no absolute standard. To judge whether a country's foreign exchange reserves are surplus or insufficient, the first condition is to understand the country's economic factors and its development direction. For more information, please refer to Huilong.com Forex.

The reason for the increase in our foreign exchange reserves.

1.A double surplus in the current account, capital and financial items.

2.Compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales system.

3.The exchange rate is not flexible enough.

4.Expectations of RMB appreciation.

The impact of the increase in foreign exchange reserves on the macroeconomic policy of simplification.

In the case of relatively small foreign exchange reserves, the proportion of foreign exchange in the base currency is relatively small, and the state does not need to pay attention to the impact of foreign exchange in macroeconomic regulation and control. However, after the increase of foreign exchange reserves, it is necessary to consider the possible impact and interference when formulating monetary policy.

1. The impact on the traditional macro-control mode.

At present, the main tools of China's monetary policy are the two major tools of planned credit and the statutory reserve ratio, of which the traditional tool of planned credit is used more: the state issues a credit plan at the beginning of each year, and the total amount of money to be put into the year must be limited to the plan. After the increase in foreign exchange reserves, it is necessary to further tighten domestic credit in order to prevent the amount of foreign exchange from exceeding the standard.

However, the increase in foreign exchange reserves is not expected and decided in advance, it is "unplanned", and it is impossible to accurately consider the plan when formulating a credit plan. In this way, when using traditional regulatory tools, the central bank can only be in a passive position on this issue.

2. Influence and interference on monetary policy.

Only a small fraction of the newly added foreign exchange reserves come from the current account surplus, and a large part comes from speculative capital in the capital account. At present, the domestic interest rate is several times higher than that of the international market, the RMB exchange rate has risen steadily, and more than 20 domestic listed companies have issued overseas**. These factors have caused a large amount of international travel capital to enter China for arbitrage.

This part of the capital is different from the capital that enters the domestic direct investment, they come from the profit and do not go from the profit, and their flow is very uncertain and random. Once there is a change in the international economic and financial situation, a large amount of speculative capital will flow out, which will cause China's foreign exchange reserves to suddenly decrease, leading to a tightening of the domestic monetary policy. The monetary authorities can only passively adapt and loosen monetary measures to avoid overly tight economic conditions.

However, the most important characteristic of circulating capital is its uncertain nature, and the response of the monetary authorities is inevitably relatively slow and lagging behind, and the strength is not easy to grasp, thus making China's economy vulnerable to the impact of world economic turmoil.

3. Impact on the current economic "soft landing" goal.

At present, the goal of the first bank is to tighten the macro and tighten the monetary system, and strive to achieve a "soft landing" of the economy, while the sharp increase in foreign exchange reserves has led to the introduction of high-energy money, which has brought difficulties to the realization of this policy goal to a certain extent. The increase in the share of foreign exchange has forced the counterparts to further tighten domestic credit, so that the inward-looking enterprises have been tightened more than originally planned, while the export-oriented enterprises have been relatively relaxed, thus affecting the normal adjustment of the industrial structure.

The most basic factors that affect exchange rate fluctuations are mainly as follows:

First, the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves.

Second, interest rates.

Third, inflation.

Fourth, the political situation.

Fifth, the rate of economic growth of a country.

Sixth, market views.

Seventh, people's psychological expectations.

Eighth, technical analysis.

The so-called balance of payments is the comparison of the total monetary income of a country with the total monetary expenditure paid to other countries. If the total amount of monetary income is greater than the total amount of expenditure, there will be a balance of payments surplus, and vice versa, a balance of payments deficit. The balance of payments situation can have a direct impact on the movement of a country's exchange rate.

A balance of payments surplus will increase the external exchange rate of the country's currency, and conversely, the exchange rate of the country's currency**; This is the most direct factor affecting the exchange rate. As early as the 60s of the 19th century, the Englishman Gerson made a detailed exposition on the role of the balance of payments on the exchange rate, and after that, the asset portfolio theory was also mentioned. The so-called balance of payments, simply put, is the import and export of goods and services, as well as the import and export of capital.

In the balance of payments, if exports are greater than imports, the inflow of funds means that the demand for the country's currency in the international market increases, and the local currency will rise. Conversely, if imports are greater than exports, and capital flows out, the demand for the country's currency in the international market will decline and the local currency will depreciate.

If a reserve currency appreciates, the country that holds the currency will increase its earnings, and the country that issued it will increase its debt; If the value of a reserve currency depreciates, the country that holds the currency will suffer a loss. In the long run, changes in the exchange rate of the reserve currency can change the structure of foreign exchange reserve assets.

A large number of China's export goods, assets, enterprises, and real estate are settled in foreign exchange, so that a large amount of foreign exchange has been obtained, and many countries have imposed a blockade on China and banned the export of high-tech products. In this way, a large amount of foreign exchange cannot buy the product, and a surplus will be formed.

It should be effectively controlled to control exports, rare earth oil, and the manufacturing cost and environmental cost of many products are much higher than corporate profits and exports.

To control imports and improve self-supply capacity, we must know that there is no need to import many products, such as transferring them to grains and so on.

Invest in foreign exchange, buy assets, buy back RMB, so that the RMB will appreciate.