What are the prospects for the future development of the photovoltaic industry?

Recently, international oil prices have maintained a weak trend, and photovoltaics, as an important alternative energy source, have also been hit hard, and the stock prices of related companies have risen from the highest level in the past year** by more than 80%. Analysts pointed out that due to the temporary loss of the substitution advantage of photovoltaic products due to low oil prices, and Obama's new will not have much impact in the short term, it is reasonable for the stock price of photovoltaic companies to suffer.

The latest data shows that Wuxi Suntech has the most ** US dollar in 52 weeks, while the ** price on February 24 is only US dollar; Jiangxi Saiwei 52 weeks of the most ** US dollars, 24 ** price is only US dollars; Trina Solar's 52-week price is in US dollars, and the price on the 24th is in US dollars. All three PV companies have a 52-week range** of more than 85, while the S&P Index** is less than 50 over the same period.

Industry insiders believe that the stock price of photovoltaic companies is first due to the loss of the substitution advantage of photovoltaic products due to low oil prices. At the same time, it is also inseparable from the current situation of the company. On February 19, Wuxi Suntech announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of last year, showing that it lost US dollars per unit of American depositary receipts, exceeding market estimates of US dollars.

The company also announced layoffs of 800 people, or 8 of its total workforce. In addition, the company** will reduce the average selling price of its products by 10% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Jiangxi Saiwei also released an estimate last week, saying that it lost $100 million in the fourth quarter of last year.

It is worth noting that this happened shortly after Obama entered the White House. Previously, the new plan of the first black man in the United States** once gave hope to the photovoltaic industry. Under the plan, the United States ensures that by 2012 10% of its electricity generation will come from renewable sources, mainly hydropower and new energy sources.

In this way, the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry in the next few years will be at least 30 or more.

Zou Hui, an energy analyst at Dongfang**, believes that "Obama's new is of great significance for the long-term development of the photovoltaic industry, but the effect will not be too obvious in the short term." The most fundamental problem in the photovoltaic industry at present is the macroeconomic recession. As we all know, the photovoltaic industry is an industry that needs subsidies, and when the economy is in a recession, the outside world is not sure about the subsidy policy.

Lyon also said that the current view of the solar industry should be conservative. While the industry is optimistic that Obama's policy will help the industry in the long run, its real contribution in the short term is limited. Comparatively, the impact of the decline and sluggish demand has been greater.

The above-mentioned analysts also believe that in the short term, China's subsidies for photovoltaics are unlikely to be likely. At present, the cost of photovoltaic energy is still too high, and China prefers wind power and nuclear power.

The installed capacity is growing every year, with centralized and distributed PV in parallel; The prospect of the photovoltaic industry is even more worry-free, now the energy is so tight, new energy is the breakthrough, photovoltaic as a new energy and clean energy, do not worry about the development prospects, but photovoltaic enterprises do not break through technology, do not innovate and develop that will be eliminated. If photovoltaic is not up to the pace of the times, then it should be left far behind by other new energy sources.

The future is bright, and new energy is the ultimate solution to the energy crisis and environmental problems. As the main force of renewable energy, photovoltaic will definitely be the mainstream trend in the future.

At present, China's centralized photovoltaic power stations are mainly concentrated in the western region, but due to the excessive concentration of projects, the difficulty of power grid consumption, high line loss and other problems, there is a phenomenon of curtailment of solar power in the local area, and the curtailment rate of solar power in some areas is even higher than 20%; The central and eastern regions are the main battlefields of distributed photovoltaic power generation layout, and they are also the main places of electricity consumption.

According to the draft of the 13th Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Energy Utilization, by the end of 2020, the capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 100 million kilowatts, of which the scale of distributed photovoltaic power generation will be significantly expanded, with a cumulative installed capacity of 70 million kilowatts, forming a development pattern of large-scale centralized power stations in the northwest and distributed photovoltaic power generation systems in the central and eastern regions. At the same time, according to the National Energy Administration's goal, by the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", strive to quadruple the scale of solar power generation compared with 2015, and reduce the cost by 30%.

According to the analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the country will unswervingly adhere to the clean and low-carbon strategic direction, accelerate the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, vigorously promote the development of non-fossil energy, continue to expand the proportion of clean energy consumption, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. As a green and environmentally friendly power generation method, distributed photovoltaic power generation is in line with the development direction of the national energy reform focusing on quality and efficiency. On the whole, the development prospects of distributed photovoltaic power generation are broad.

China's photovoltaic industry is one of the emerging industries that has developed rapidly in recent years, and has become one of the largest photovoltaic markets and production bases in the world. At present, China's photovoltaic industry has formed a complete industrial chain, including silicon materials, cells, modules, system integration and application.

The development prospects of China's photovoltaic industry are very broad. On the one hand, with the country's increasing emphasis on renewable energy, the market demand of the photovoltaic industry will continue to increase. On the other hand, technological progress and cost reduction will also provide more powerful support for the development of the photovoltaic industry.

In the next few years, the main trends of China's photovoltaic industry development include the following aspects:

1. Large-scale application: With the continuous reduction of the cost of photovoltaic power generation, photovoltaic power generation will gradually become a competitive clean energy, and will be applied to residential and commercial users on a large scale in the future.

2. Technological innovation: A new generation of photovoltaic technology, such as polycrystalline silicon cells, thin-film solar cells, organic solar cells, etc., will continue to emerge to improve the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation and reduce costs.

3. Intelligent application: The photovoltaic industry will be combined with new technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data to realize the intelligent management and application of photovoltaic power generation, such as smart photovoltaic power stations and smart photovoltaic roofs.

4. International cooperation: Chinese photovoltaic enterprises will strengthen cooperation with international photovoltaic enterprises, accelerate technological progress and internationalization, and improve international competitiveness.

In general, the development prospects of China's photovoltaic industry are very broad, and it is expected to become an important pillar industry in the future, which is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of China's economy and responding to climate change.

At this stage, the application of photovoltaic power stations in China is combined with agriculture, aquaculture, mining and ecological governance, showing a trend of diversified development, creating a variety of new models combined with the photovoltaic industry, such as photovoltaic water pumps, photovoltaic street lights, photovoltaic trees and photovoltaic consumer goods and other photovoltaic application products.

In the context of "carbon neutrality" becoming a global proposition, China will start the first year of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in 2021.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's photovoltaic industry has experienced four stages: start-up, development, recession and recovery, and has entered a period of steady growth, and has now become the world's first or best country in terms of new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation. China's photovoltaic industry has achieved leapfrog development from scratch and from existence to strength.