What is the current state of the real estate market

There is nothing to talk about in real estate in third- and fourth-tier cities, because their trend depends on the real estate in first-tier cities, and landlords can think about how the real estate is up this time, first the housing prices in the big cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou were speculated, and then spread to the second-tier cities, and then the hot spots continued to the third and fourth tiers. Why look at these big cities, because there is the strongest purchasing power in real estate in such cities, and most of the rich people are concentrated in these places, and the purchasing power of these people determines that the housing prices in these cities are the least likely to fall, the easiest to rise, and the least bubble. This can be understood as a war, the first-tier cities are the main forces, the second and third lines are auxiliary forces, the main force goes up, then the auxiliary ones will also go up, if the main forces are defeated and retreated, can the auxiliary ones not be defeated and retreat?

In other words, the richest ones don't buy it or can't afford it, can the rich people hold on? The most serious bubble is actually the second and third tier cities, if the real estate enters the downward trajectory, I dare to assert that your so-called third and fourth tier city real estate ** will have to dive big, unless the city you live in has not been speculated, then of course the impact will be relatively small.

If you need it in three or five years, you can consider buying it, and if you need it after three or five years, don't consider buying it first. The third and fourth-tier cities will see how the property market in the first- and second-tier cities is doing at the beginning of next year, and if the first and second-tier cities continue or become more **, the third and fourth-tier cities will naturally also**.

House prices are affected by a variety of factors, from the macroeconomic situation to an individual's ability to buy a home. Although the overall economy is gradually picking up, in a specific period and region, due to a variety of reasons, housing prices may appear **.

Some of the reasons that can lead to room rates** include:

1.Funding crunch: When the interest rate on the loan required to buy a home rises, or when access to financing tightens, many people have to abandon their plans to buy a home, which leads to house prices**.

2.Excessive**: When a large number of new buildings are put on the market, and the market demand does not increase accordingly, it is also easy to lead to housing prices**.

3.Policy regulation: **Adopt various means to curb the excessively fast housing prices**, such as policies such as purchase restrictions and price limits, which may lead to housing prices**.

4.Unbalanced regional development: Unbalanced economic development leads to uneven levels of development between regions, and some cities with high housing prices may experience a decline in the economy of Zhitantuan, resulting in housing prices**.

It is important to note that it is quite normal for house prices to fluctuate. Even if the overall economy is gradually picking up, it does not mean that there will be a trend in all regions and the housing market.

What does it mean that real estate development investment and residential investment fell in the country in January-February 2023? The contraction trend of the real estate industry has already been formed, but the epidemic and the economic downturn have accelerated the contraction process, which is not surprising, and this downward trend is completely irreversible, mainly due to the following four reasons: First, the urbanization process will slow down.

China's urbanization level is already relatively high, and the growth rate will be significantly reduced in the future. The urbanization rate is expected to grow from the current 60% to 70%, the increase in the urbanization rate is facing a ceiling phenomenon, the growth rate of the urban population is slowing down, and it is impossible to grow by a few percentage points per year in the future, and the demographic dividend of urbanization will gradually disappear. Second, the total amount of old city renovation will be reduced.

After more than 20 years of urban construction, the situation of "large-scale demolition and large-scale construction" of the old city will gradually disappear. Third, the quality of housing has been greatly improved. In 2012, the then Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a residential quality standard, which regulated the construction quality of various commercial houses such as residential and office buildings, and raised the safety standard period of about 30 years for commercial housing to at least 70 years, or even 100 years.

This means that after 2010, all kinds of commercial houses newly built in the city can theoretically be used for 70 100 years, which means that the amount of depreciation and renovation in the old city will be greatly reduced. Assuming that a city has a housing stock of 1 billion cubic meters, and the depreciation period of 30 years is calculated, about 30 million square meters of houses will have to be demolished and rebuilt every year, and if the depreciation period becomes larger and more than 100 years, the average number of houses rebuilt each year will be just over 10 million square meters. Fourth, the housing market has been basically balanced, and the per capita housing area will not increase significantly.

At present, China's per capita housing area has reached 50 square meters, and the requirements for improving the housing of families in difficulty have gradually decreased. In the future, although there will continue to be a demand for housing improvement, it is only partial and structural, and on the whole, the phenomenon of insufficient housing area per capita will gradually disappear. Judging from the above four new situations, in the long cycle of the next ten years, the era of China's real estate market "overwhelming" the completion and sale of 16.7 billion square meters of new houses every year has basically come to an end.

The fact that new home sales in 2018 are only up compared to 2017 is a clear sign. This is a significant decline compared to the average annual growth rate of 25% from 1998 to 2008, the average annual growth rate from 2008 to 2012 to 15%, and the average annual growth rate from 2012 to 2018 of 6% to 7%. In other words, in the next ten years, the sales volume of new houses in the real estate industry will not increase from 1.7 billion square meters to 1.7 billion square meters, but will shrink year by year!

The future development trend of real estate is the digitalization and digitization of real estate.

Intelligent interconnection and digitalization accelerate the rapid rise of technology real estate. Digitalization and digital economy have been integrated into all walks of life, and real estate is also facing the empowerment of digitalization. In the future, the financial attributes of China's real estate will gradually weaken, the demand for housing will gradually return to the essence of residence, and the changes in supply and demand led by fundamentals such as economic growth and population flow will be the main driving factors for the future real estate market.

Factors influencing the development of real estate in the Housing Bureau.

1. Supply and demand. When the supply is greater than the demand, the commodity will be the most demand, and when the demand is greater than the supply, the commodity will rise, which is the most basic law of supply and demand in microeconomics. As a commodity, real estate must be affected by supply and demand as it abides by the laws of commodity economy.

2. Cost factor. Real estate as a commodity is subject to cost constraints, the higher the cost, the higher the **. If real estate companies want to make a profit, the price must be higher than the cost.

It's not just supply and demand that's driving up house prices. With the increase of local debt, many places have to increase fiscal revenue by selling land, and the increase in land prices has led to an increase in the cost of real estate, which has also pushed up housing prices to a certain extent.

3. Policy factors. As an important part of the commodity economy, the impact of policies on real estate is crucial. Policy factors include monetary policy, fiscal chain policy and various industrial development policies.