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There are many reasons for this, the financial crisis has led to a significant reduction in the export volume of steel, and the demand of many domestic steel-using enterprises has also decreased, but the supply of steel has not been reduced too much, so that the supply exceeds demand, which has led to the downward adjustment of the first grade, and the lower grade of the first has made the people who buy steel have a wait-and-see mood, and the backlog of goods makes the sellers sell steel at a low price in order to return the funds, so a vicious circle has led to the continuous downward adjustment of the steel industry.
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Steel, mainly because there is no obvious improvement in demand now, so there will still be a shortage of writing to see if the demand improves in March, but to really improve, it may still be in the second or third quarter. You can take a look at this analysis. The steel market sales are not smooth, and the later stage is not optimistic.
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That's a lot. International influence, the decrease in exports has increased the amount of domestic steel, and the domestic demand for steel has also decreased, and the inventory backlog has increased. And many dealers still have 08 years of inventory backlog.
At the same time, the recession of real estate has greatly reduced the demand for steel ,..Then the price of iron ore was reduced. Coal also fell.
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When there is more competition among enterprises, there are more products, and when there are more products, they will be lowered.
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Personally, I think there are many reasons for the rise and fall of steel, but the price of steel fluctuates around its value for a long time, and the short-term price is determined by the contradiction between supply and demandDuring this period, the steel price has been substantially large, mainly due to the following reasons:
First of all, the economy of Western developed countries led by the United States has recovered significantly, and due to the strong support of vaccines, the demand for steel will be relatively strong in recent years。Taking the United States as an example, in March, the benchmark per ton of carbon steel hot-rolled coil exceeded 1,250 US dollars, nearly 70% higher than the international average, and higher than China. Even if the United States imposes a 25% tariff on China, China's steel mills still have a lot of profit margins.
Second, China's income epidemic has been well controlledThe rapid recovery of industrial and agricultural production, the start of major key projects, the huge investment in iron foundation, and the huge digestion capacity of domestic steel.
Third, quantitative easing (QE) in the United States continues to be rolled out, the bulk raw materials denominated in US dollars have risen sharply, which has also pushed up steel prices.
Fourth, the production cost of steel has increased significantlyFor some reason, the relationship between China and Australia is somewhat icy, and nearly 60% of China's imported iron ore comes from Australia; Brazil, no matter what, the cost has increased a lot, and due to the impact of the epidemic, the labor cost has also increased a lot. The price of steel has also been rising.
Fifth, the pace of technological transformation of China's iron and steel industry has acceleratedCoupled with the huge investment in scientific research funds, the quality of steel products has been generally upgraded, the proportion of high-grade and high-quality steel has been greatly increased, and special-purpose products have been successfully developed. For example, in 2020, China will have tens of millions of tons of imported steel, mainly India and Vietnam, and most of the products are low-grade steel for general use. Good things mean high input and high quality, and it makes perfect sense to be higher.
Sixth, Wall Street's big money has a lot of money, resources, and information at its disposalIn order to make profits, oil, coal, ferroalloys and steel will be controlled and speculated, resulting in significant fluctuations in production and transportation costs, so that steel prices will rise and fall.
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Steel** is because of the recent shortage of steel, and it is no longer imported, so ** soared.
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Because the market demand is relatively large, the price will rise, which is also determined by the law of the market, and it changes with this law.
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Because there is demand, people have a high demand for this thing, so it has increased in price.
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Because the demand for steel is very high, and most people are constantly buying, it will lead to the continuous rise in this case, and many businesses want to take advantage of this to get more benefits.
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Many people are actually wondering about a question, whether Australia can use iron ore to sanction China, this question, after today's steel ****, is it more concerned by many people, so is this really the case? In fact, it's not that simple.
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1.Macroeconomic environment.
The development of the steel industry is positively correlated with the development of the international economy and the domestic economy, a good macroeconomic environment provides a guarantee for the development of the steel market, and the rate of economic growth directly affects the demand for steel in various industries, and then affects the development of steel products. The economic crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has spread to Europe, Japan and other countries, resulting in the shrinking demand for steel in China, which directly affects China's steel exports. At the same time, various domestic macroeconomic policies and macroeconomic control also have a certain degree of impact on steel.
2.Cost push.
According to the definition of the principle of economics, when the supply exceeds the demand, ****, and when the supply is less than the demand, ****. Therefore, the supply and demand situation of the steel market directly affects the trend of steel. China is currently the world's largest steel producer, the main raw material is iron ore, China is also the world's largest consumer of iron ore, so the level of iron ore directly affects the level of steel.
According to statistics, the global iron ore has increased significantly in the past four years5% and 65%, affected by the number of rubbers, steel will also be substantial, at the same time, due to the sharp increase in costs, so that some enterprises can not bear this pressure and take measures to reduce production and limit production, so that the steel market is in short supply, and then make steel.
3.Downstream demand in the steel industry.
The downstream scope of the steel industry is very wide, mainly used in real estate, automobiles, shipbuilding, machinery manufacturing, home appliances and other industries, etc., the growth trend of these industries directly affects the growth of steel consumption, and when these industries are not in good condition, it will also directly affect the demand for steel. For example, at a time when the world is mired in an economic crisis and it is difficult to get out of it, the situation of various industries is not good, which has led to a sharp contraction in demand for steel, which in turn has led to the development of steel.
At present, steel is about to come out, through the analysis of these factors, investors can clearly understand the reasons for the fluctuation of steel, and then can effectively avoid the risks brought by the market.
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