Under the new policy, what do you think is the development of the property market? Will the price go

The new policy is mainly to suspend the issuance of third home loans, and to limit the number of housing units in some cities (14 restricted cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Sanya, Guangzhou, Wenzhou, Haikou, Dalian), and then interest rate hikes.

This purchase restriction order is another restriction on housing prices after curbing the housing **** too fast, and it is only for the suppression of first-line houses.

The interest rate hike is first of all to deal with the rapid growth of the currency: secondly, it is also an important weapon to maintain the stability of the RMB value: finally, the interest rate hike is also a performance of future expectations.

As we all know, the inflation has been inflating, oil prices, vegetable prices, the recent apple price (following the garlic you ruthless, teasing you, sugar after the emerging word apple what) inflation rate is as high as, the bank for more than 5 years of interest rate adjustment to 3%, relatively speaking, the mortgage interest rate increase is relatively small, in terms of single loan interest rate, the pressure of the first set is less than the second set and above: take the previous 7% preferential interest rate of the mortgage customer as an example, after the discount, its interest rate will be raised from the previous one, In fact, there is only an increase of one percentage point; The second set of interest rates has been raised by one percentage point from the previous increase.

The inflation rate will lead to less and less valuable money, and the deposit is used for speculation, speculation, and risk-taking, and the line of defense is larger, and the impact on society is also relatively large, so the interest rate hike strategy is proposed in this case. As a real estate, the house itself has a value there, and while the interest rate increases and the price of goods expands, the house itself is also in a process of maintaining and increasing its value, and will not come to naught, which determines the fact that the property market will not collapse.

China's current population density is large, the traditional habit of buying a house and not renting a house, although the current suppression of real estate, but housing prices in the near future, may be a few months or even a year is unlikely to decline, and in the long run, housing is a rare resource, there must be a fall, but in the end it must rise.

The property market is generally stable, local fine-tuning, from the speed of inflation and the dual pressure of policy control, the property market is actually still in price reduction, up to the top and even interest groups down to the common people, do not want housing prices to plummet, if it happens is bound to be a disaster, it will be a devastating blow to China! The bursting of the mahogany furniture bubble is a lesson from the past, Japan's economy is a typical negative teaching material, of course, if the bubble continues to blow down, sooner or later there will be a day of bursting, the current danger is not great, and it is still an important investment channel to resist inflation, maintain and increase the value, the current economy is so sluggish, housing prices will rise, at least to maintain value.

The only reason why today's property market is suppressed is that he is no longer an effective and safe engine to pull GDP, his speed is too high, and occupies a large number of social resources, many should be used to build factories, open up markets, increase employment funds are all invested in real estate, he has become a serious factor restricting the balanced and healthy development of China's economy, which is why the state is doing its best to suppress housing prices.

However, a lot of the country's funds have been invested in real estate, once the blow is too large, resulting in the collapse of the overall situation of real estate, it will damage almost all domestic industries and individuals, so the best way is to make real estate unprofitable, let the market economy make everyone withdraw their own funds, in this process, there will still be people to follow, so housing prices will not collapse quickly.

Okay, the reasons and measures have been analyzed, and finally the conclusion is reached. I think that housing prices are unlikely to decline in the near future, maybe a few months or even a year, because the establishment of the industry is not overnight, the plan is proposed, the improvement of the project is not a momentary thing, so a large amount of money is still hoarded in real estate, however, many shrewd businessmen have seen the country's determination to suppress housing prices, and the new national ten articles are a very shocking move for Chinese real estate developers. However, after one to two years, house prices will slowly come down.

But certainly not going back too low.

The new deal itself is just a strengthened version of the original policy, itself has little new ideas, the introduction of the new policy should be expected, many developers are ready to deal with it, and now the time for the market to digest after the policy is introduced is getting shorter and shorter. Real estate itself is a pillar industry in China, and although housing prices themselves are not included in GDP, the materials behind them are included in GDP. Land income is one of the largest incomes, and land has been increasing in recent years with a second derivative less than zero, and the land price will not be greatly reduced in order to take into account the local income.

And the pricing power of raw materials has not been in the hands of China, but in the hands of other national monopoly organizations. Therefore, if the land price is not reduced, the material price is not reduced, how to reduce the housing price? Nearly 50 percent of Beijing's GDP is related to real estate.

This is true throughout the coastal region, where income from real estate affects the economy of the country. If real estate is vigorously suppressed, and China's economy still maintains a growth rate of nearly 10 percent, it can only indicate that the data is falsified. As far as I know, the land price in my city has not fallen after the policy was introduced, it is still the same as before, or even higher, so the developer must always make a profit.

I'm from Hangzhou. Wang Shi said that real estate will not drop much. In my opinion, short-term fluctuations, and under the premise of external appreciation of the RMB and internal depreciation of the RMB, the CPI continues to be **, coupled with the country's wage doubling plan, is bullish in the medium term.

House prices will not rise at all, as these measures are designed to further stabilize house prices, not to encourage them**.

When you ask this question, you need to be clear about the location of many places' house prices. Let's take first-tier cities as an example, the housing prices in first-tier cities have generally reached more than 50,000 yuan, similar to the average housing price in Shenzhen has reached more than 70,000 yuan. For more ordinary people, people simply can't afford to buy a house, so the incentive to push up housing prices simply doesn't exist, and housing prices can't continue.

First, the intensive regulation of the property market is to stabilize housing prices.

The reason why there will be intensive property market control measures in many cities, the sole purpose of these measures is to stabilize housing prices, and the decline in housing prices in many places has reached an uncontrollable level, and the decline in housing prices in some places has reached more than 20%. When there is a large increase in housing prices, although people who have not bought a house are happier, housing prices will further affect the development of the overall economy, so this problem must be stabilized. <>

Second, the next house price will not continue**.

As I explained in the logic of the first look two, the basic logic of housing prices is that someone will buy a large number of housesHowever, for the real society, people who do not have a house generally do not have the money to buy a house, which means that housing prices cannot be pushed up indefinitely. In such a situation, house prices are likely to be sideways for a long time and will not continue**. <>

3. Housing prices in many places will continue**.

Although many places have introduced measures to stabilize housing prices, these measures will not take effect in all places. For those third- and fourth-tier cities, because the purchasing power of residents in these places is relatively low, when housing prices overdraft too much residents' purchasing power, it is difficult to curb the trend of housing prices continuing to **, so housing prices in these areas may continue**For first-tier cities, housing prices in first-tier cities may be relatively stable because of the relatively strong role of housing price maintenance in first-tier cities. <>

The property market does not have a short-term trend right now. Judging from the current recovery, most of them are first- and second-tier cities, and the regulation and control of these cities have not been substantially relaxed, and the stabilization of market volume and price is mostly driven by the adjustment of housing loans last year, especially the return to normal rhythm of second-hand housing loan issuance, which has led to a rise in market transaction volume. Therefore, there will be no large-scale policy adjustment in the short term, and the market will change little.

Maybe, but it's only in big cities, not in small cities, because big cities are places where there are people, and they will be **high.

Probably not. House prices are unlikely to fluctuate dramatically, or even decrease, which can reduce the pressure on people to buy a home.

The regulation and control of the property market in many places in China are changing, and we do not need to worry about the skyrocketing housing prices.

After the Spring Festival, the real estate policy of many cities in China has changed, some cities have reduced the proportion of down payment for house purchases, some cities have reduced the interest rate of real estate loans, in 2021, with the tightening of China's real estate policy, housing prices in many cities have declined to varying degrees, and the housing prices in some cities have even been cut in half, which has made some people in the peak period of housing prices miserable, and even some areas have been cut off, of course, the downward trend of real estate has been given to the local ** It has also brought a lot of pressure, but with the gradual relaxation of local policies after the holiday, many people think that this indicates that the spring of real estate will come again, and house prices may skyrocket as before

First, the state's major regulation and control policies have not changed

China's real estate policy has set the tone, that is, the house is for living, not for speculation, so the era of skyrocketing housing prices has passed, and housing prices may rise in a small range in the short term, but it is unlikely that housing prices will skyrocket in any case.

Second, the property market regulation policy is only short-term

Many people based on the short-term regulation and control policies of these cities to make judgments is also one-sided, individual cities in the process of suppressing housing prices will inevitably face the pressure of destocking, some cities in the policy after the regulation, there will be a rise in housing transactions, **** situation, this is because there is just demand, because China's urbanization process is far from over, but these are short-term, the scope is also controllable, and the increase is not large, it is unlikely that there will be a large-scale housing price surge.

I think it is necessary to worry about the situation of skyrocketing housing prices, because if there is a change in the regulation of the property market, it is likely to mean that a big action will be made, and it is very possible for housing prices to skyrocket.

There is no need to worry, because now the real estate environment in many places has changed, it will not be ** in the short term, and this situation is for the stability of the market, so there is no need to worry.

Of course not, because now the state has taken action to regulate the property market, and now the loan interest rates of many banks have fallen, so we don't have to worry about skyrocketing housing prices.

I don't think there is any need to worry, the general environment will soon stabilize housing prices, and there will not be too much fluctuation, mainly because there is macro control, so don't worry.

In my opinion, there is no realistic basis for housing prices in China (unless there is a property tax or something like that). Housing prices in small counties are possible, but at least first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will not be ** (housing prices do not rise, it is benevolent).

What we call high housing prices is actually the high housing prices in first-tier cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) and core cities (such as Nanjing and Chongqing).

First-tier cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou) and core cities, there are as many as there are in the country, and there are no more than 20 in the country, while how many rich people in China, how many college graduates, and how many of the world's top 500 companies have settled in those big cities, and employees go there to buy houses, which naturally pushes up housing prices.

Housing prices around first-tier cities are not high at all. For a simple example, the housing prices in Shanghai are tens of thousands, but there are only 10,000 in Kunshan, tens of thousands in Hangzhou, only a few thousand in Huzhou, tens of thousands in Nanjing, and only a few thousand in Ma'anshan, and between them, it takes as little as 15 minutes to use the high-speed rail, and it only takes half an hour at most.

In fact, it is normal to live in Ma'anshan and work in Nanjing, but why it can't be like this, there are several reasons:

Vested interests oppose; When we buy a house in Beijing, what we really want to enjoy is not a house of 100,000 yuan per square meter, but education, medical care and so on in Beijing. When I bought a house in Ma'anshan, I could only enjoy the education and medical care in Ma'anshan, but not Nanjing.

Therefore, Beijing will inevitably have high housing prices, and if you are a candidate from Hebei, you will naturally not be able to enjoy Beijing's scores.

This is the root cause of China's high housing prices.

How many first-tier cities are there in China? If the house price in Beijing and Shanghai falls from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands (or thousands), I will also go to Beijing to buy a house.

But the reality is that the average price of housing prices in Shanghai was 50,000 yuan in 2015, 60,000 yuan in 2016, and 70,000 yuan in 2017.

There are so many people in China, there are always those who want to buy a house, want their son to get married, want to invest, and want to go to Peking University.

If you don't have money, then go to a place with low housing prices to buy a house, for example: Jiuquan, Gansu, the house price is 3,000; In Jixi, Heilongjiang, the house price is about 2,000. With such a house price, buying a 60-square-meter house will cost hundreds of thousands!

I went to a big city to be a courier boy and bought a house with 2 years' salary.