What is the price fluctuation of spot bitumen related to?

1. Sudden major political events;

2. Changes in interest rates (when interest rates increase, capital investment is reduced, resulting in a smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates can also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, leading to a decrease in the rate of extraction);

3. Exchange rate changes (there is a negative correlation between the exchange rate changes between the US dollar and major international currencies, and the US dollar ** puts pressure on the asphalt settled in US dollars. In times of geopolitical turmoil, bitumen has a positive correlation with the US dollar, and the two complement each other).

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The main influencing factors for the fluctuation of asphalt**.

1. The main reason for the fluctuation of spot asphalt is more dependent on supply and demand, and the short-term impact of non-agricultural economic data is small, and the fluctuation is relatively stable, which is suitable for trend trading. As a bulk commodity, asphalt has a high degree of market maturity, has both financial attributes and commodity attributes, and is closely related to macroeconomic indexes, and is a trading commodity favored by domestic and foreign investors. In the international commodity market, asphalt is one of the most important commodities.

2. Use asphalt ** volatility to make profits. The U.S. Department of Labor releases data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls every month, and each release causes wild volatility in the market. But many people can't predict the ups and downs of **.

In this regard, we can make a profit through a combination of take profit order and stop loss order. That is, before the data is released, ** orders and sell orders are opened at the same time, and profit orders and stop loss orders are placed on them respectively. As long as the price of the stop-loss order is lower than the price of the profit-taking order, it becomes a risk-free profit.

Although the current asphalt is still in the correction of the previous trend, the situation of fragile balance between supply and demand will continue for a long time, so it is difficult to appear deeper, and it is still worth looking forward to the high level of operation and the resurgence of the storm. "Investors are advised to be more pragmatic in their timing of their interventions, and there is no need to gamble on what will happen years or ten years from now. "Investment needs to be pragmatic and rational, don't follow the trend!

The general strategy is to be optimistic for the long term but it is not recommended to chase the rise, and wait for the adjustment time before intervening.

Non-farm payrolls, EIA, dollar index. Mainly these three data.

Analysis: 1. Non-agricultural refers to the U.S. employment rate, which is announced on the 5th day of each week, at half past one o'clock in the evening, the employment rate is high, and the dollar index is strong, so spot asphalt ****.

2. The U.S. dollar index indicates the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the spot asphalt is priced in U.S. dollars, and the U.S. dollar is strong, so the spot asphalt is relatively ****.

3. EIA refers to spot ** inventory, because spot bitumen is a derivative of spot oil. Therefore, the supply and demand of EIA directly affect the ** of spot asphalt.

First, the relationship between supply and demand.

The relationship between supply and demand determines the direction of oil prices, and the main factors that determine the long-term trend of asphalt are the supply and demand fundamentals of disperse-resistant asphalt. Because asphalt is a non-renewable resource, the short-term supply elasticity of asphalt is small, so when no new large-scale oil fields are discovered and major technological innovations appear, the most important factor affecting asphalt ** is the world economic development that determines the demand for asphalt.

2. Oil stocks.

The main purpose of commercial inventories is to ensure that enterprises can operate efficiently in the event of seasonal fluctuations in oil demand, while preventing potential asphalt supply shortages; The main purpose of the national strategic reserve is to cope with the Shisho Teshi oil crisis.