When will the real estate market get better in 2015?

At the end of the year, it is time to summarize the past and look forward to the future. In 2014, the property market changed its previous posture of soaring, with investment growth slowing down, high inventory, housing prices continuing to fall, and obvious market differentiation. At the same time, the trend of "de-administrative" regulation is becoming increasingly clear.

The property market, which bids farewell to the "** era", will enter a "new normal" of self-regulation.

Recently, judgments on the future trend of the property market have emerged in an endless stream, and real estate tycoons have also expressed their views on the property market. Yesterday may also have broken out that the bigwigs collectively look down on the property market, and today some people reaffirmed that they are not looking at the decline, and the property market will pick up in 2015. For a while, people who care about housing prices are confused, whether they should buy a house or not?

The following is a summary of the real estate market compiled by the China Report Hall.

Under the influence of easing policies such as the relaxation of restricted purchases, the relaxation of housing loans, and interest rate cuts, the decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country slowed down slightly in November, and the sales area and sales of newly built commercial residential buildings hit a new high in the year, and the second-hand residential properties in some cities also stopped falling and rebounded, but the overall downward trend has not changed. According to the real estate industry market research and analysis report released by the China Report Hall, the property market does not have the conditions for a large number of times in the short term, but the pattern of market differentiation will be more obvious in the future.

Since the market entered August, the commercial housing market in the main urban area of Chongqing has continued the trend of last month, and the market performance has been sluggish. However, under the central bank's two-pronged policy of lowering interest rates and RRR requirements, it is expected that first- and second-tier cities may usher in ** in the future, while third- and fourth-tier cities will accelerate destocking. As far as Chongqing is concerned, the reduction of financing costs for developers may rekindle the development momentum, coupled with the fact that the demand for rigid demand is still huge, and the property market will show a steady upward trend in the future.

First, urbanization will slow down. China's urbanization level is already relatively high, and the growth rate will be significantly reduced in the future. The urbanization rate is expected to grow from the current 60% to 70%, the increase in the urbanization rate is facing a ceiling phenomenon, the growth rate of the urban population is slowing down, and it is impossible to grow by a few percentage points per year in the future, and the demographic dividend of urbanization will gradually disappear.

Second, the total amount of old city renovation will be reduced. After more than 20 years of urban construction, the situation of "large-scale demolition and large-scale construction" of the old city will gradually disappear.

Third, the quality of housing has been greatly improved. In 2012, the then Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a residential quality standard, which regulated the construction quality of various commercial houses such as residential and office buildings, and raised the safety standard period of about 30 years for commercial housing to at least 70 years, or even 100 years. This means that after 2010, all kinds of commercial houses newly built in the city can theoretically be used for 70 100 years, which means that the amount of depreciation and renovation in the old city will be greatly reduced.

Assuming that a city has a housing stock of 1 billion cubic metres and a depreciation period of 30 years, about 30 million square metres of houses are demolished and rebuilt each year, and if the depreciation period becomes 100 years, the average number of houses rebuilt per year is just over 10 million square metres.

Fourth, the housing market has been basically balanced, and the per capita housing area will not increase significantly. At present, China's per capita housing area has reached 50 square meters, and the requirements for improving the housing of families in difficulty have gradually decreased. In the future, although there will continue to be a demand for housing improvement, it is only partial and structural, and on the whole, the phenomenon of insufficient housing area per capita will gradually disappear.

Judging from the above four new situations, in the long cycle of the next ten years, the era of China's real estate market "overwhelming" 16.7 billion square meters of new housing completion and sales every year has basically come to an end. Li Mao's judgment that the sales of new homes in 2018 only increased compared to 2017, which is a clear signal. This is a significant decline compared to the average annual growth rate of 25% from 1998 to 2008, the average annual growth rate from 2008 to 2012 to 15%, and the average annual growth rate from 2012 to 2018 of 6% to 7%.

In other words, in the next ten years, the sales volume of new houses in the real estate industry will not increase from 1.7 billion square meters to 1.7 billion square meters, but will shrink year by year!

In the first two months of this year, a number of data such as real estate investment and sales appeared obviously**. On March 15, the "National Real Estate Development Investment and Sales from January to February 2022" released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the national real estate development investment in the first two months was 1,366.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease and a percentage point higher than that from January to December last year. Among them, residential investment was 1,027.3 billion yuan, a decline, up one percentage point from last year.

The sales of commercial housing have also rebounded significantly. In the first two months of this year, the sales area of commercial housing in the country was 151.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decline. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings has declined, and the growth rate has rebounded sharply by one percentage point compared with the decline from January to December 2022.

Residential sales increased year-on-year, driving the growth rate of commercial housing sales to close to positive.

From January to March 2021, the average sales value of the TOP100 real estate enterprises was 100 million yuan, and the average growth rate was; Among them, there are 5 real estate companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, an increase of 2 over the same period last year; There are 76 real estate companies with more than 10 billion yuan. The average equity sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises is 100 million yuan, and the average equity sales area is 10,000 square meters. The average sales value of TOP101-200 real estate enterprises is 100 million yuan.

According to the "Top 200 Sales Performance of China's Real Estate Enterprises from January to March 2021" by the China Index Research Institute, from January to March 2021, the development of different camps of real estate enterprises was differentiated. There are 5 super camps of more than 100 billion yuan, and the average sales growth rate is. There are 10 companies in the first camp (500-100 billion), and the average sales growth rate is.

There are 33 companies in the second camp (200-50 billion), with an average sales growth rate; The third camp (100-20 billion) and the fourth camp were 28 and 24 respectively, with average sales of 100 million yuan and 100 million yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase and.

From January to March 2021, the threshold value of TOP100 is 100 million yuan. Among them, the threshold value of the top 3 real estate enterprises is 100 million yuan, an increase over the previous year; The threshold value of TOP10 real estate enterprises is 100 million yuan, an increase over the previous year; The threshold value of TOP30 real estate enterprises is 100 million yuan, an increase over the previous year; The thresholds of the top 50 real estate enterprises and the top 100 real estate enterprises were 100 million yuan and 100 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of and.

In March, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in 28 key monitoring cities across the country increased by 24% compared with the same period in 2019.

While market sentiment is high, real estate companies have increased their supply efforts. In March, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies** increased month-on-month, year-on-year, and increased compared with the monthly average in 2020. Judging from the cumulative sales amount from January to March, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies increased year-on-year.

At the same time, the sales performance threshold of various echelons of real estate enterprises continued to increase, compared with the same period last year and the same period of the previous year, there was a significant increase, and the performance of more than forty percent of real estate enterprises increased significantly, and the overall performance was optimistic.

In March 2021, the TOP100 real estate companies achieved sales of ** billion yuan in a single month, and the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies increased year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and increased compared with the average monthly sales amount in 2020. Compared with the previous month, the monthly performance of the top 100 real estate companies increased month-on-month.

Judging from the cumulative sales** amount from January to March, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies increased year-on-year, compared with the same period in 2019.

1.Macro environment: The foundation of economic recovery is unstable, and monetary policy and real estate regulation and control are mainly stable.

2.Market trend: **Increase the promotion of volume and price in the second half of the year, but the increase in stools will slow down, and the annual growth will be worry-free.

3.Different cities: First- and second-tier cities are limited by policies in the short term, but their advantages in the medium and long term are still prominent; In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of third- and fourth-tier cities will be released, but the potential risk of excess cannot be ignored.

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I don't know if it's jujube talk about whether it will help you to serve rotten, please!

Let me tell you a few characteristics of the real estate market in the second half of the year:

1. The number of residential ** increases. After the market picked up in 2009, real estate developers increased the area of new construction, and the vast majority of them entered the market after October this year, which will lead to a year-on-year increase of more than 60% in the number of residential buildings.

2. The capital chain of real estate developers is tight. In 2009, many real estate developers sold a lot of houses and had plenty of cash. However, with the decline in volume and price this year, funds have tightened. On the one hand, it invests money to buy land and build houses, and on the other hand, sales are not smooth and the payment is slow, which also forces real estate developers to sell houses at lower prices.

3 Demand will be released in the second half of the year. This year's sluggish market transactions are not because the demand for housing has disappeared, but because it has been suppressed, and everyone is waiting and watching. With the adjustment of **, the stalemate state eased, and the trading volume increased.

The above is based on macro data, but it should be noted that the real estate market has a strong regionality, and the supply and demand in each region are unbalanced, so it cannot be generalized. For example, second- and third-tier cities may appear in the second half of the year.

As 2015 comes to an end, where will real estate go in 2016? Mingyuanjun connected a number of strategic experts in the industry, combined with the ** report released by the famous ** research institution CICC, and summarized 10 trends for reference.

In the first half of the year, the property market as a whole was relatively optimistic.

2. First- and second-tier cities: sales are expected to be flat, while the average sales price will be **10%3,Differentiation between different cities and regions will intensify.

4. In 2016, there will still be frequent kings.

5.The share of demand for improved housing continues to increase.

6. Housing prices in first-tier cities continued to rise after a brief period of stabilization.

7. Brand real estate companies expanded their share in second-tier cities, and some local real estate companies withdrew.

Judging from China's current **, it should be about the same as this year.