The lag effect in the economics of the lag effect and the causes of the lag effect

Dependent variable. The phenomenon of being affected by the value of previous periods of oneself or another explanatory variable is known as the lag effect.

The variables that represent the values of the previous periods are called lagging variables.

For example, in the consumption function, it is generally believed that the consumption in the current period is not only affected by the income of the current period, but also by the income of the previous 1 period, or the previous 2 periods: ct = 0 + 1yt + 2yt 1 + 3yt 2 + t yt 1, yt 2 is a lagging variable.

Causes of the hysteresis effect:

1. Psychological factors: people's psychological stereotypes.

Behaviour lags behind changes in the economic situation, such as lottery winners are unlikely to change their lifestyle anytime soon. 2. Technical reasons: For example, the output of the current year depends to some extent on the fixed assets formed by investment in the past several periods.

3. Institutional reasons: For example, time deposits can only be withdrawn when they mature, resulting in a lag in its impact on social purchasing power.

In general, the influence of explanatory variables on the explanatory variable cannot be completed in a short period of time, and there is usually a time lag. In addition, due to the inertia of economic activities, the previous change trend of an economic indicator often continues to the current period, resulting in a situation where the current change of the explanatory variable is related to its past value level. This phenomenon in which the explanatory variable is affected by its past value or that of other economic variables is known as the lag effect.

There are three reasons for hysteresis. 1. Psychological expectation factors, the economy and society is a complex organic system, economic activities are inseparable from human participation, in this system, human psychological factors have a great impact on the changes of economic variables. Due to the role of people's psychological stereotypes and social habits, adapting to the new economic conditions and economic environment requires a process, which is manifested as a lag in decision-making.

Moreover, most of the actions of economic agents are influenced by the psychology of expectations. Taking consumption as an example, people's consumption of a certain commodity is not only affected by the current commodity **, but also affected by expectations, when people expect ****, it will speed up the current purchase of 2 technical factors in the operation of the national economy, from production to circulation to use, each link takes a period of time, thus forming a time lag. For example, the increase or decrease in the amount of money supply will have an impact on the price level, but this effect will not be fully reflected in the current period, and there will always be a lag period.

3. Institutional factors. Factors such as the contract management system will also form a certain degree of lag. For example, if an enterprise wants to change its product mix or output, it will be constrained by the supply contracts signed in the past, and consumers with a certain amount of fixed deposits will be restricted by the bank contract system if they want to adjust their consumption level.

The last type of connection is called the hysteresis effect.

What is the lag effect?

For example, if you are driving in a traffic jam and listen to a traffic radio that a road next to you is clear, you can drive over it.

But when you get to that road, you find that it's actually very congested.

Did the traffic radio lie to you?

No. It's because the time you hear the announcement and the time you arrive at that road changes the condition of the vehicle.

This is the lag effect.

For another example, when you take the university entrance examination to fill in your application, the college entrance examination consulting agency tells you that the international finance major is popular.

So, you applied for international finance. As a result, when I graduated from university, I found that the hottest thing was artificial intelligence, and it was difficult to find a job in international finance.

Did the college entrance examination consulting agency lie to you?

No. It's because in the four years you've been in college, the business world has changed significantly.

Cause and effect are not instantaneous, and loops are not instantaneous.

There is a time lag between them.

This time difference is known as the lag effect.

hysteresis effect, let in the spatial dimension.

The already complex system adds complexity in the time dimension.

It will keep cause and effect away in time and space, thus misleading your judgment.

Therefore, when we are trying to gain insight into all things, we must have a lag effect in our hearts.

I know how to give everything everything, and add time keys to the thick axis.

These days have been in the learning lag effect, and the result is really tricked, and the body is too tired. Sometimes you can't feel it, but when you feel uncomfortable, you can't help but admit defeat.

I had dinner around 9 p.m. every day, but after a while, my stomach began to reflux acid and reflux appeared. I was so scared that I immediately adjusted my meal time, ate on time at 6 o'clock, and it was all right away.

Sometimes a lot of things are lagging effects at work, and our daily efforts can't see the effect in a short period of time, but after a long time, we find ourselves improving.

Sometimes because of the lag effect, many people miss out on love, and when they understand, they are already wrong.

In fact, what we need to do is not to let the lag happen all the time, but to find a way to solve the lag and increase the speed to solve the problem.

Lag tends to add to changes and create turbulence, and that's what the good thing is saying. If you want to solve this problem, you have to procrastinate.

It's like eating with many people, the hands are fast, but the hands are slow. Of course, the lag effect is not a blank thing, and if you hide one thing, you will talk about it in a few days, and then you will artificially create a lag effect. For example, there are many celebrities who are married, but they have never disclosed it, and the purpose may be to protect their families.

So lag is not necessarily a bad thing, and it can even be used to gain benefits. In the past, when there was no one mobile phone, the information from the city would be transmitted to the rural areas, and the information would lag behind, and more money could be made by taking advantage of this information gap. For example, fruits, such as pigs, such as timber and a series of rural products.

In the past, there was a person in our town who went to the garment factory to buy the clothes made by those novices, and then brought them back to the countryside to sell. In fact, they all use the way of information lag to make money.

There are some things that we don't do when we know it, such as falling when we walk to a very wet and slippery place, and when we know that our shoes are easy to slip, we basically don't choose to walk.

Sometimes we have to learn trial and error, and the practice of not trial and error means a lot of risk. Even the hospital first got a skin test, and when the lag effect worked, then went to save people? We do some important things that require trial and error, rather than betting on everything, and when we bet on everything, after the lag effect is over, the group loses completely.

I said this when I learned to invest, never bet on it, never leave the table, so that you have a chance to win. Trial and error is a better way to avoid fatal risks.

Everything has its two sides, know, learn to use and utilize.

It's the same with the day of writing, it's a good thing to use it well, and it's a good thing to give up after a few days if you don't use it well.

1. Since technical analysis generally emphasizes the trend, the formation of a judgment of the trend requires the chart line to first get out of the initial direction characteristics, which makes the technical turning signal generally lag behind the top or bottom of the market.

2. In management psychology, the phenomenon of adverse consequences due to the fact that decision-making and management factors lag behind the importance of the development of the situation is called the lag effect.

Concept: Hysteresis effect.

There is no timely feedback between actions and results. The time difference between them is the lag.

For example, many of us know that suffering is a blessing. However, how many people have really done it willingly to "suffer"? How many people are willing to give up their hands when faced with the upcoming benefits?

The fundamental reason why we choose to do this is because we will see the loss we suffer immediately, and the "blessing" usually goes through a relatively large time span before it comes. And our "human" nature is like instant feedback. We are usually impatient with things that take some time to prove bad.

For another example, after knowing so many truths, I still can't live this life.

Why? Because you know that doesn't mean you do it, and besides, there are some things, even if you do it, the results are not immediately apparent.

Yes, what most of us lack is patience.

It's not that we're incompetent, it's not that we're inexperienced, it's that we lack the confidence and impatience to keep committing to one thing.

Therefore, in the face of life growth, the most effective strategy is to firmly stand with time and be a friend of time. Do long-term, valuable things, patiently build your own life moat, and form a unique life barrier.