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On the 7th, the central bank announced a 1 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement, and in the following two days, the RMB exchange rate continued to fall, and the person in charge of the central bank believes that the RRR cut has made up for the liquidity gap in the banking system, the bank has not relaxed, and the market interest rate is stable and will not form depreciation pressure. But in fact, according to the "impossible triangle", if you want to cut the reserve requirement ratio to release liquidity, but also want the exchange rate to remain stable, I am afraid that there is not such a good thing in the world. What is the "Impossible Triangle"?
As shown in the figure below, we put the free flow of capital, monetary policy independence and fixed exchange rate in the three corners of the triangle, a country can only achieve two at most, this is very understandable, we look at each side of the triangle to know, for example, if you want to maintain the free flow of capital and monetary policy independence, you have to sacrifice the fixed exchange rate, become a floating exchange rate, if you want to maintain the independence of monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate, you have to sacrifice the free flow of capital, the implementation of capital control.
2. During the National Day period, the yield of U.S. bonds was sharply **, emerging market stocks and foreign exchange rates were killed, the financial market was linked, and it was difficult for the RMB to stand alone, and investors' confidence in the RMB exchange rate declined, which will also be reflected in the trend. Why are Treasury yields moving? The reason is that the continuous rise in oil**, as the most important industrial raw material, has generated expectations of higher inflation, and at the same time, the market will also expect the central bank to raise interest rates due to the chain reaction caused by the rise in oil prices, which will lead to higher Treasury yields.
3. Sino-US relations have deteriorated, and the war has heated up. On October 1, the United States and Canada reached an agreement on the framework of the new North American Freedom Agreement, which added a "poison pill plan" against China, which contains this clause, if any country in the new agreement signs a ** agreement with a "non-market dominant country", the other two countries can oppose it, and freely launch it within six months, and the discerning person knows at a glance that this is directed at China. There are political issues involved, and ordinary people such as us still do not comment much, because the tension between the two countries will exacerbate the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, because politics, economy, and finance are inseparable.
In the face of unequal tariff measures, enterprises in China's real economy certainly hope that the RMB exchange rate will be lowered to hedge the impact of the war.
4. The Fed's aggressive interest rate hike has put greater pressure on the trend of the RMB exchange rate. Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times, on October 2 and 3, the chairman of the Federal Reserve expressed his position for two consecutive days, believing that the U.S. economic outlook is good, the easing policy is no longer suitable, and further interest rates will be raised in the future until it exceeds the neutral interest rate. Trump was also angry about the Fed's more aggressive attitude towards raising interest rates, and criticized the Fed for "you are crazy".
All in all, the deterioration of Sino-US relations, the fact that China and the United States continue to stand on the cusp of the storm, the aggressiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the dilemma of domestic monetary policy have led to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and there is a possibility of breaking the "7" technically.
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There are many factors that affect the exchange rate, the most fundamental is the economic development of a country, because the United States has suffered an economic recession, so the dollar has fallen sharply against the yuan.
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Why did the US dollar fall sharply against the yuan in January this year?This is because of the epidemic in January, if the stock index plummets, the dollar will also fall!
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Summary. Hello dear, happy to answer your <>
The dollar will rise by the end of the year, the dollar is expected to rise to 4%, the recent United States Christmas is coming, the market demand for the dollar has greatly increased, and the increase will be more obvious before the end of the year.
Will the dollar rise or fall by the end of the year?
Hello dear, happy to answer your <>
The dollar will rise by the end of the year, the dollar is expected to rise to 4%, the recent United States Christmas is coming, the market demand for the dollar has greatly increased, and the increase will be more obvious before the end of the year.
Dear, the US dollar is the legal tender of the United States of America, the Republic of El Salvador, the Republic of Panama, the Republic of Ecuador, the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Kiribati and the Republic of Palau. The U.S. dollar banknotes in circulation are the editions of banknotes issued since 1929. The issuing authority for the US dollar is the Congress, and the Federal Reserve Bank is responsible for the specific issuance business.
After World War II, continental European countries reached an agreement with the United States to use the U.S. dollar for international payments, and the U.S. dollar was widely used as a reserve currency outside the U.S. and eventually became an international currency.
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Summary. Brent in February, the most actively traded, ******** 18 cents to gain the dollar per barrel. December gasoline ****, to the dollar index per gallon after rushing higher, after the 6th rate hike, fell back to the vicinity;As the hyperinflation in the United States has not improved significantly, the Fed rate hike market is expected to reach the 5% area, but the soaring Treasury interest rate and the hard landing of the economy will undoubtedly damage the US economy, and the US dollar continues to **, breaking through 107, and the increase is at least between 108-109 <>according to the measure
Dear, it's a pleasure to answer that question for you, <>
The dollar will rise by the end of the year, the dollar is expected to rise to 4%, the recent United States Christmas is coming, the market demand for the dollar has greatly increased, and the increase will be more obvious before the end <>of the year
Brent in February, the most actively traded, ******** 18 cents to gain the dollar per barrel. December gasoline ****, to the dollar index per gallon after rushing higher, after the 6th rate hike, fell back to the vicinity;As the hyperinflation in the United States has not improved significantly, the Fed rate hike market is expected to reach the 5% area, but the soaring Treasury interest rate and the hard landing of the economy will undoubtedly damage the US economy, and the US dollar continues to **, breaking through 107, and the increase is at least between 108-109 <>according to the measure
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Summary. Hello dear, I am happy to answer your <>
Based on the domestic situation and the United States, the US dollar exchange rate is likely to continue**, in short, the de-dollarization of countries around the world has just begun, and the value of the US dollar will further decline.
Will the U.S. dollar exchange rate last**.
Hello dear, I am happy to answer your <>
The U.S. dollar exchange rate will continue to <>
Based on the situation of the country and the United States, the US dollar exchange rate is likely to continue, in short, the de-dollarization of the world's first virtual virtual has just begun, and the value of the US dollar will further decline.
Dear, hello the US dollar exchange rate is the US dollar to other currencies **, in China, the "US dollar exchange rate" usually refers to the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB. The current account deficit and fiscal deficit that have existed in the United States for a long time are the root cause of the dollar's depreciation. The direction of the dollar exchange rate is full of uncertainty.
As the U.S. economy may have a downturn or even a recession, the subprime mortgage crisis may continue to worsen, coupled with investors' confidence in holding U.S. dollar assets has been affected, central banks have ** U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve has continuously cut interest rates in order to stabilize the financial market, and put a large amount of liquidity into the market, Shan Hanxiao has further aggravated the depreciation trend of the dollar.
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