How to make decisions in a state of research

It's just a matter of making decisions often, and this needs to be exercised. Don't pass up a single opportunity to make a decision.

If you're wrong, don't give up, learn from your experience. That's how you can grow.

"Management Operations Research" is a basic theoretical discipline with a wide range of applications, and it is also an important technical basic course for many engineering and management majors. For a long time, Lanzhou Jiaotong University has been taking "Management Operations Research" as a compulsory course for major transportation majors (including transportation, traffic engineering, logistics management, etc.), and the course has gone through 30 years of preparation, enrichment, improvement and development in our university, and the main historical evolution can be roughly divided into three stages. In the first stage, as early as the mid-70s of the last century, he was the founder and founder of China's railway transportation profession.

1. Professor Lin Damei, a well-known transportation expert and director of the Department of Transportation of our university, keenly found that it is difficult to solve many railway transportation problems by using traditional mathematical methods, and under his active advocacy, Professor Teng Chuanlin of our university led and organized the translation of the book "Operations Research" edited by Professor Hartley of Princeton University in the United States. In 1979, Professor Teng Chuanlin began to teach "Operations Research" to the 77 undergraduate students majoring in transportation, and then began to teach to graduate students majoring in transportation. Considering the management background of the transportation major, after repeated revisions and improvements, especially the addition of a large number of modeling and application parts of operations research, Professor Teng Chuanlin compiled and published "Management Operations Research" in 1986, as the only operation research textbook in the transportation and economic management majors in the universities of the Ministry of Railways at that time, which had a great impact on the relevant colleges and universities, and won the first prize of excellent textbook of the Ministry of Railways in 1988.

In addition to actively expanding the research field of traditional operations research, the computer simulation theory has been supplemented to the teaching content of graduate students, and many graduate students have completed their master's degrees, such as Deng Xiping, 84, 83 graduate students under the guidance of Professor Teng Chuanlin Both Li Yinzhen (the person in charge of this course) and Xu Ruihua (the supervisor of the School of Transportation, Tongji University) chose to use computer simulation methods to study transportation problems such as the operation organization of railway marshalling stations, the optimization of small running trains at hubs, and the calculation of section capacity.

Basic principles of decision-making:

1. System principle: The application of system theory for decision-making is the primary principle that must be observed in modern scientific decision-making.

2. Information principle: Information is the basis of decision-making.

3. The principle of feasibility: whether the decision-making can be successful depends on the maturity of the subjective and objective aspects, and the scientific decision-making should not only consider the needs of the organizational development of the market, but also take into account the feasibility of the implementation of the decision-making in all aspects of the external environment and internal conditions of the organization.

4. Satisfaction principle: Because it is impossible for decision-makers to grasp very sufficient information and make very accurate decisions, and they cannot be completely sure of the future situation, it is impossible for decision-makers to make "optimized" decisions.

Scientific decision-making refers to the decision-making made by decision-makers with scientific thinking, scientific means and science and technology. Scientific decision-making refers to the process in which decision-makers use scientific theories and methods to systematically analyze subjective and objective conditions to make correct decisions in order to achieve a specific goal. The foundation of scientific decision-making is to seek truth from facts, the basis of decision-making should be realistic, the plan of decision-making should be realistic, and the results of decision-making should be beneficial.

Procedures for scientific decision-making.

Decision-making is a complete and dynamic process of proposing, analyzing, and solving problems. The decision-making process consists of four basic steps: (1) Asking questions and setting goals All decision-making starts with a problem.

The so-called problem is the gap between the expected phenomenon and the actual phenomenon. Decision-makers should be good at discovering gaps and identifying problems on the basis of comprehensive collection, investigation and understanding of the situation, and be able to clarify the development trend of problems and the importance of solving them. The so-called goal refers to the desired result on the basis of a certain environment and conditions.

The goal is the starting point and end point of decision-making, the goal must be clear and reasonable, and on the basis of needs and possibilities, it is necessary to distinguish between the goals that must be achieved and the goals that are expected to be achieved. (2) Formulate a feasible plan A feasible plan refers to a plan that has the conditions for implementation and can ensure the realization of the decision-making goal. There are many ways to solve any problem, and it is necessary to compare and develop various alternative solutions.

Therefore, the process of formulating feasible plans is a process of discovery and exploration, as well as a process of elimination, supplementation, revision and selection. It is necessary to conceive boldly, dare to innovate, and be meticulous and calm and well-designed. The essential difference between empirical decision-making and scientific decision-making lies in the difference in methods and methods.

The subject of empirical decision-making is generally expressed as an individual, while scientific decision-making is the product of collective intelligence. Empirical decision-making mainly depends on the main quality of decision-makers, while scientific decision-making adopts advanced technology and methods as much as possible. Empirical decision-making is intuitive, while scientific decision-making does not exclude experience, but focuses on dealing with decision-making problems under the guidance of theory. Therefore, it is necessary to combine empirical decision-making with scientific decision-making to make decision-making scientific.

The decision-making process can be divided into the following stages:

1) Identifying opportunities or diagnosing problems: The accuracy of assessing opportunities and problems depends on the accuracy of the information, so managers should try to obtain accurate and trustworthy information and eliminate distortions in the interpretation process to improve the likelihood of making the right decision.

2) Identify goals: Goals reflect the results that the organization wants to achieve. The quantity and quality of the desired outcome need to be clarified, as these two aspects of the objective ultimately guide decision-makers in choosing the appropriate course of action.

3) Determine the plan: After consulting the opinions of others, the manager formulates the alternative, determines the value or appropriateness of the proposed plan, determines the optimal plan, and then determines the best plan according to the facts and the results of the investigation.

4) Select the implementation strategy: After the plan is selected, the manager should formulate the specific measures and steps of the implementation plan.

5) Monitoring and evaluation: In the implementation stage of a program, the situation may change, so the manager should constantly modify and improve the program to adapt to the changed situation.

The key to scientific decision-making lies in the collection of information, and managers cannot do without information when making decisions. The quantity and quality of information directly affect the level of decision-making, so decision-makers need to collect information through multiple channels as much as possible before and during decision-making as the basis for decision-making, of course, pay attention to cost-benefit analysis when collecting information.

The meaning of the word decision-making is the process of analysis and judgment of selecting a satisfactory plan from more than two programs by using certain scientific methods and means in order to achieve a certain goal.

A process for making the right decisions.

1) Determine the goal of decision-making. The decision-making goal refers to the results achieved on the basis of market research and research under certain external and internal environmental conditions. Decision-making objectives are determined based on the problems to be solved, so it is important to grasp the key points of the solution to be solved.

Only by clarifying the objectives of decision-making can mistakes in decision-making be avoided.

2) Develop alternatives. Once the decision-making objectives have been established, options for achieving them should be developed. The first step in developing an alternative is to analyze and study the external and internal conditions for the achievement of the goal, the positive and negative factors, as well as the future trends and developments of the decision-making thing; The second step is to arrange and combine the unfavorable factors and favorable factors of the external environment, the favorable conditions and unfavorable conditions of internal business activities, etc., with various estimates of the future trend and development status of the decision-making thing, and draw up a plan to achieve the goal. The third step is to conduct a rough analysis and comparison of these options with the target requirements, weigh the pros and cons, and select a number of feasible options with more advantages and fewer disadvantages for further evaluation and selection.

3) Evaluate alternatives. Once the options have been developed, they are then evaluated on a look-a-glance basis.

Which option is most conducive to achieving the decision-making objectives. There are usually three methods of evaluation: empirical judgment, mathematical analysis, and experimentation.

4) Select a plan. Option is the process of making overall trade-offs against the various options and having the decision-maker pick the best one.

5) Execution of the program. Any plan has its practical significance only after it is truly implemented, and the implementation of the plan is the foothold of decision-making.

6) Feedback evaluation program. Through the tracking, inspection and evaluation of decisions, deviations in the implementation of decisions can be found so that measures can be taken to control decisions.

Decision means risk! It will take time to verify whether the decision made is correct. (Can be compared with marriage) how to balance the risk of decision-making, recommendations:

Work together to involve people who know about the incident and listen to different opinions.

Risk assessment to keep risks under control.

Learn from experience and lessons learned, and learn how to make the right decisions from experience and lessons.

The risk is usually proportional to the benefit. As a business, sometimes you need to have a certain sense of risk-taking, but this risk-taking decision should be managed so that the company does not face an existential crisis.

Put forward the idea of creativity, first use addition, the more the better, and then demonstrate the elimination of the best comparison pilot, observe the same type of situation, and finally select the best plan that can withstand the test of practice to enable the implementation.

Decide which strategy to adopt. It is necessary to refer to the industry, macro and micro environment, and the sensitive observation of individuals.

Summary. The first step is to analyze and study the external and internal conditions for the realization of the goal, the positive and negative factors, as well as the future movement trends and development of things that are decided; The second step is to combine the unfavorable and favorable factors of the external environment and the favorable conditions and disadvantages of internal business activities on this basis.

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The process of decision-making includes: 1. Disturbing the correct judgment problem - understanding and analyzing the problem. 2. Determine the decision-making goals of Shengmeng. 3. Formulate an alternative action plan for repentance. 4. Analyze and evaluate each action plan. 5. Select a satisfactory plan and put it into practice.

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The first step is to analyze and study the external factors and internal conditions, positive factors and negative factors for the realization of the goal, as well as the movement trend and development of the decision-making thing. The second step is to combine the unfavorable factors and favorable factors of the external environment and the favorable conditions of internal business activities on this basis.

According to the researchers, the task of decision-making is:One has to pick a task from multiple choices to choose an item;

There should be some available information about these options;

The time course is comparatively longer; Macro debate.

This choice is uncertain, i.e. it is not clear which is the best one. The decision-making process should include risk, and a good decision-maker should be able to effectively assess the risks of each option.

There are two kinds of decision-making: one is the fast-paced, automatic "perceptual decision-action" decision. One is a controlled decision that requires effort and analysis to complete.