The impact of the U.S. demand for RMB appreciation on China s foreign trade 10

Exchange rate changes can affect a country's economic growth by affecting the external world**, changing the balance of payments. For China, the appreciation of the renminbi will affect the economy in both positive and negative ways.

From a positive analysis, if the RMB appreciates, it has the following benefits, which is also a reflection of the domestic view of agreeing with the appreciation of the RMB:

Foreign products** will decline, which is conducive to increasing China's imports of high-quality consumer goods and production equipment from abroad, and improving living standards and industrial manufacturing levels. If the renminbi appreciates, the average income of Chinese households will increase and the purchasing power will increase accordingly under the effect of China's strong current account balance, thereby helping more than one billion people to improve their existing living standards, and also providing conditions for the domestic manufacturing industry to transform into manufacturing high-quality products, thereby improving the competitiveness of China's various industries.

The ability of enterprises to invest abroad will be enhanced. At present, China pays more attention to exports and the introduction of foreign capital, but with the further integration with the international market, Chinese enterprises will continue to expand overseas investment in order to open up sales channels, and the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to improving the investment ability of enterprises in foreign markets, prompting enterprises to "go global", which can not only reduce the production costs of manufacturers with a high proportion of imported raw materials, but also promote Chinese enterprises to further accelerate the pace of internationalization.

The amount of local currency required for repayment of outstanding external debt will be correspondingly reduced, which can alleviate the external debt burden to a certain extent.

However, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy will be mainly reflected in the negative impact.

The specific analysis is as follows:

Export growth will be constrained.

It is not conducive to attracting foreign investment and upgrading of the processing industry.

It is not conducive to alleviating deflation in our country.

It is not conducive to alleviating the pressure on domestic employment. This year, nearly 8 million people have registered unemployed in China's urban areas, and in addition, about 100 million low-skilled laborers in rural areas also need to find jobs, and the employment situation of China's labor force is quite grim. At present, more than 70 million jobs are provided by the foreign trade and economic cooperation industry, and many new jobs are also provided by domestic export enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises.

The impact of RMB appreciation on export industries and foreign direct investment will eventually be reflected in employment, which will inevitably have a certain impact on the improvement of the current employment environment. In addition, the rise of the RMB exchange rate will also lead to the rise of China's non-** goods (such as land, labor and other factors of production), thereby weakening domestic demand, which in turn will have a serious negative impact on the employment market.

It is not conducive to the effective play of monetary policy.

It affects the balance of payments and the stability of financial markets.

Exports will fall, but imports and domestic consumption will increase, and diplomatic isolation will also improve.

** Deficit, RMB depreciation, inflation.

The positive impact of RMB appreciation.

1. It is conducive to China's imports.

2. The cost of raw material import-dependent manufacturers has decreased.

Negative impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation:

1.A stronger renminbi will put more pressure on China's deflation;

2.The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will lead to a decrease in the attractiveness of foreign investment and reduce foreign direct investment in China;

3..causing great harm to China's foreign trade exports;

Appreciation is not good for the country's exports. After the appreciation of the currency, it is equivalent to the commodity in the international market. If other factors remain unchanged, sales will decline.

Positive impact. 1. It is conducive to China's imports.

2. The cost of raw material import-dependent manufacturers has decreased.

3. The ability of domestic enterprises to invest abroad has been enhanced.

4. The profits of foreign-invested enterprises in China have increased.

5. It is conducive to the study and training of talents abroad.

6. The pressure on repaying principal and interest on foreign debts has been reduced.

7. It is more cost-effective to sell Chinese assets.

8. The international status of China's GDP has improved.

9. Increase state tax revenue.

10. The international purchasing power of the Chinese people has increased.

Negative effects. 1. The renminbi is not freely convertible under the capital account, which means that the mechanism for determining the exchange rate is not the market, and there is no point in changing it.

2. The appreciation of the renminbi will put more pressure on China's deflation.

3. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will lead to a decrease in the attractiveness of foreign investment and reduce foreign direct investment in China;

4. It has caused great harm to China's foreign trade exports.

5. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the profit margin of Chinese enterprises and increase employment pressure.

6. The fiscal deficit will increase due to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and at the same time affect the stability of monetary policy.

The appreciation of the US dollar against the RMB, that is, the depreciation of the RMB, the increase in the amount of US dollars exchanged for RMB obtained by exports, under the condition that the export cost remains unchanged, the profit margin of enterprises increases, the enthusiasm for exports increases, and the international competitiveness of commodities increases, which is conducive to domestic exports.

The appreciation of the renminbi has a great impact on foreign trade, and in summary, it can be summarized as follows:

The appreciation of the renminbi, for China, is good for imports and not good for exports;

As far as foreign countries are concerned, it is good for US exports and not good for US imports.

In this way, we should know that the main income of a country is exports rather than imports, so for China, this affects China's foreign trade enterprises to a certain extent.

If you still don't understand, let me give you a very simple example:

Previously, for example, our product A was worth 70 RMB, and the exchange rate at that time was: 1 US dollar can be exchanged for 7 RMB. We export a product A, and the Americans need $10.

Now, the renminbi is appreciating, and 1 dollar can only be exchanged for 6 yuan, so we also export product A, but the Americans need US dollars at this time, that is, they need more US dollars to buy the same products as before, so of course, it is not a good thing for our export enterprises.

In the same way, we charge US dollars for foreign trade, before 10 US dollars, 1:7, we can get 70 yuan, and now 1:6, we can only receive 60 yuan, so we need to increase the price to maintain the original profits...

Hehe, now it's clear, let's think about it slowly, see if that's the case?

Today's ratio of Renmingcoin to the US dollar is: 8:1

Tomorrow, the ratio of Renming's coin will increase: 5:1

The example of $100 illustrates the change in imports and exports. The main thing is that it will theoretically affect exports and promote imports.

In recent years, the rapid development of China's economy, the growth of foreign surpluses and foreign exchange reserves have increased the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, and the outbreak of the global financial crisis and the coping strategies of the world economy have promoted the appreciation of the RMB. This important macroeconomic policy will have a far-reaching impact on all aspects of China's economy, especially the development of foreign trade enterprises. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade enterprises from both positive and negative aspects, and then puts forward countermeasures and measures to better improve the international competitiveness of China's foreign trade products and open up the international market.

In general, it is to force the depreciation of the US bonds held by our country, resulting in a decrease in our international purchasing power, the inability to buy more products that we urgently need, and the loss of financial advantage when competing with other foreign buyers (the depreciation of the dollar will inevitably cause changes in the currency market around the world); On the other hand, the cost of RMB in the process of export has risen, and in the international market, the best advantage of Chinese goods has been suppressed, affecting exports, thus making domestic export enterprises face great pressure and overcapacity. The backlog of products cannot be sold, and eventually it can only go bankrupt and go out of business. At that time, more people will be laid off and unemployed, triggering more acute social problems.

The resulting effects are numerous.

Since the renminbi is not yet an international currency, the appreciation of the renminbi is basically harmful to China's economic development.

The cost of China's exports is relatively high, that is, the unit price of manufacturing in the country has increased, and the exports of some enterprises along the coast of China will decrease, and even lead to the closure of some enterprises. . . The treasury alone has lost hundreds of billions...