What is the win rate, the success rate

First, look at the noun explanation, 1. Success rate: The rate at which the target benefit is achieved in the target period, for example:

The average success rate of 30% profit in 5 days is 60%, that is, after the indicator signal is issued, there is a 60% chance that investors will get more than 30% in 5 days.

Another criterion for the success rate is, "50% of them yield."

Percentage, 2x Target Yield Percentage, 3x Target Yield Percentage.

What is "50% of the yield"? For example: "Where:

There are 80% signals with a success rate of 50%", that is, in the above signal model, the remaining 40% are failure signals, although the return does not reach the set target of 30% within 5 days, but some of these 40% reach half of the target of 30%, that is, the signal with a return of 15%-29%, such a signal is still 80%. This indicator is mainly used to assess the worst profitability of the trading signal system.

2x Target Yield Percentage" and "3x Target Yield Percentage". That is, among the 60% of successful signals, the ratio of the return to more than 60% within 5 days and the return to the return of more than 90%. These two indicators measure the optimal profitability of the trading signal model.

In this way, the actual profit in the above example is 60% + (1-60%) 80% = 92%, that is, the 92% probability is that the profit is above 15% in 5 days.

Assuming that "where the 2x rate of return level is 25%" and "where the 3x rate of return level is 10%", then the total actual average rate of return of the above model in the target period is: 30%*2*60%*25%+30%*3*60%*10%+30%*50%*40%*80%=.

To summarize the above example, investors who trade with the above model have a 92% chance of getting an average risk-free return over 5 days.

2。Win rate. The win rate is the ratio of the number of successes to the number of failures.

However, this indicator does not effectively reflect the true level of profitability. For example, let's assume that the win rate is that on average, out of 3 trades, 2 times are profitable and 1 time is losing. However, if the profit is 3% each time, the total profit of 2 times is 2*3%=6%, and the loss of 10% is 10%, then the actual rate of return is 6%-10%=-4%, that is to say, although the winning rate is at a high level, the investor actually loses 4%.

Final conclusion: we can see that the success rate can more truly measure the profitability of the trading system, and the winning rate can only be used as an auxiliary reference index, if the success rate and winning rate are relatively high, it means that the trading model has a relatively sustainable and stable profitability.

The win rate is the number of games a team has won divided by all the games he has played. It's the win rate.

The concept of success rate is very detailed, such as pass success rate and shot success rate. Basically, the algorithm is the same as the win rate above.

How many passes you have made successfully divided by the total number of passes you have made is your passing power. And so on.

You're asking so vaguely, success doesn't mean victory, so victory is generally less than the success rate.

The ratio of the number of games won to the number of games.

The success rate is the ratio of the number of successful actions to the total number of attempts to make them.

Win rate = number of wins Total number of matches x 100%.

The total number of games includes the sum of wins, draws, and losses, and for some games without a draw, it is the sum of wins and losses. Multiplying by 100% is a percentage of the calculation.

The winning rate can clearly show the probability of winning, which is easy to compare with other teams. Slow foci.

For example, if a soccer team participates in a tournament with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, then the win rate = 4 (4+3+3)x100%=40%.

If the probability of success in something is 1%, will repeated attempts improve the chances of success?

I think the chance of success depends on the specific situation, for example, if you toss a coin and guess the heads and tails, no matter how many times you toss, the probability of a positive is 50%, because each toss is an independent event, and there is no accumulation between the previous one and the next one, and there is no impact. Then, if it is a practice shooting, although it was very poor at the beginning of playing, and there was not a single hit in a hundred times, after groping, constantly adjusting, and mastering certain skills, the probability of shooting will definitely increase.

From an economic point of view, the success rate of a thing is only 1%, and it is necessary to consider the investment and effectiveness. If the chain has been tried 99 times but has not succeeded, it doesn't matter if you succeed in another attempt, what matters is the marginal cost and marginal benefit. Try again, will the benefit be greater than the 100 inputs?

In other words, by the time the 50th attempt is made, the cost of investment is already greater than the benefit of success, and no further attempts will be useless.

Therefore, even if you are 100% successful in doing something, whether you want to do it or not depends on the marginal cost and marginal benefit of doing it.

Categories: Education Science.

Question Ridge Posture Circle Description:

A basketball league finals are played between teams A and B, and the game adopts a best-of-five system, and it is known that the probability of team A winning in each game is 2 3, so the probability of team A winning with a book and 3:1 is: 24 81, how to calculate? Analysis:

Analysis, if Team A wins 3:1, it must win 2 of the first 3 games, lose one, and win the fourth game.

3 refers to C3 2, and two of the three are selected (no order).

2 3) The probability of 2 nails winning 2 games.

1 3 refers to the probability of B winning a game.

2 3 Nail last win probability.

Since it is step-by-step, it is multiplied.

This is one of the usual solutions.

I don't know, excuse me.