Should the A share trend be bearish or bullish in August?

In August, the trend of A-shares is "first up and then down", which means that it is bullish in the first half of the year and bearish in the second half of the year.

The reasons for the bullish in the first half of August are mainly analyzed from three aspects:

Reason 1: From the technical side, it is good

It's been a week in August, and in recent trading days, **continued**, although there was a dive in the intraday, but it did not let the technical side go bad, **trend is still **, and the index point is above **.

From a technical point of view, there is still a strength in the short term, and it is not ruled out that it will break through to the recent high of 3458 points, and it will continue to be optimistic in the short term.

Reason 2: There is capital support

At the beginning of July, after breaking through 3,000 points, the entire A-share market came alive, and over-the-counter funds entered the market significantly, with a trading volume of more than one trillion yuan for more than 10 consecutive trading days.

Only after last week's ** adjustment of 2 trading days fell below the trillion, the recent trading volume has returned to the trillion volume. There is volume and price, which means that as long as there is the support of trading volume in the near future, it will not fall in the short term.

Reason 3: The heat of the plate has not decreased

The current A** field is structural**, and funds and popularity are all hyped around several sectors. For example, the three major sectors of finance, insurance, and banks are the main forces supporting the rise.

In addition, science and technology, medicine, military industry, liquor, tourism sector continues to be very strong, these plates are not over, as long as there is the support of these plates, the short-term probability is very low, unless these plates are cold, the index will be adjusted.

The above three aspects, such as **trend**, volume, and plate, can also support ** to continue to rise in the short term, and this rise will at least continue to next week.

What is the reason for being bearish on late August?

I am personally bearish on the second half of August, there is also a reason, there is a reason, the biggest reason is only one point, this round of pulling up ** has come to an end, has been built at a high level, the top will enter a new round of adjustment after the top again pulls up and seduces.

If you follow the **, in the near future** in saving, saving is to pull up a wave again, of course, the strength and space for pulling up are very limited. A double bottom may form at 3450 and 3550.

Therefore, according to the time period of building a double top, as well as the current position of the structure, the probability of completing the top in the next 1 2 is high, which is the real reason for the bearish late August.

Summarize the analysis

Based on the analysis of the above aspects, it is known that there is a high probability that the trend will continue to build a top trend at a high level in the first half of August, and the adjustment will begin in the second half of the year. Construct the top ** bullish, the top is bearish after the formation, according to this calculation, it is more consistent to rise first and then fall in August, do you agree with this point of view?

Personally, I am still optimistic, although in the first week of August, it seems that ** is rising, but many stocks are falling, and may continue to adjust, but at the end of August, the final finishing is still very optimistic about the ** market.

Because the economy has just recovered, the increase in August is not very large, and by September and October, it will definitely be large.

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Since the beginning of the epidemic, our attention to the first has increased, and many people have seen the profit margin, but often many people are relatively confused when they first enter the industry, and they don't know how to choose for many of them.

New energy is still the trump card now. In fact, for the choice of **, I believe that everyone has a certain understanding of **, often if a country comes out of some policies, then often related to this policy** will rise, new energy is a good example, although the new energy industry is now an emerging industry, but often if it is conducive to the development of the country, follow the general trend of the country, often will be supported by the state, so since the country is now developing the new energy industry, Then it often shows that in the next few years, the new energy type is often a good investment project.

1. Don't be in a hurry to buy **, don't just want to buy the lowest price, this is unrealistic. It is also good to really pull up**You are the high price**, so it is better to buy**miss, not to be at fault, not to buy and sell blindly**, it is best to buy **familiar with the disk**.

2. If you are not familiar with it, you can simulate trading first, be familiar with the nature of stocks, it is best to follow for a day or two, familiar with the operation methods, and you can master the best points.

3. Pay attention to the necessary technical analysis, pay attention to the changes in trading volume and the language of the disk (the situation of the disk buy and sell orders).

4. Try to choose hot spots and appropriate points, so that the stock price can be out of the cost area after the same day.

Three people and: ** is more, the popularity is strong, the stock price rises, and vice versa. At this time, what is needed is personal ability to watch the market, and whether it can find hot spots in time.

This is the key to success or failure. **Operation** to be ruthless, the mentality to be stable, it is best to be correct**after the stock price** out of the cost, but once the judgment is wrong, when it comes to adjustment**, it is necessary to sell the stop loss in time, you can refer to the previous post: win in the stop loss, here will not be repeated.

Fourth, the skills of selling**: **It is impossible to be all the time**, there will be adjustments when it rises to a certain extent, then the **operation will be sold in time, generally speaking, when making money, it is right to sell at any time. Don't want to sell the most, but for the sake of the greatest profit, there are still skills in selling, I will introduce my experience (not necessarily the best):

1. If there has been a certain large increase, and the volume is rapidly rising to the price limit without sealing the limit, you can consider selling, especially if there is a long upper shadow.

If you put a huge amount of stagflation or a long upper shadow line in the minute or daily line, you generally do not continue to increase the volume the next day, and it is easy to form a short-term top, so you can consider selling.

3. You can see the 15 or 30-minute chart of the tick chart, such as 5** cross 10 days ** down, and sell in time when the trend feels weak, this trend is often the beginning of the ** adjustment, which is very valuable for reference.

4. For the wrong purchase, you must stop the loss in time, the higher the better, this is a long-term actual combat practice accumulation process, you have to pay if you see the mistake, there is nothing to wait.

This week's ** index rose slightly overall, but after Monday's big rise, it was adjusted for 4 consecutive days, and the routine was the same first dive and then pulled, and the whole week** overall tossed back and forth.

Friday is also the morning low open low, at the beginning of the afternoon market there was a wave of panic to kill the fall below the 10th **, lost and regained, as of the end of** the decline narrowed, closed a long lower shadow **, then next Monday** how to go?

According to the overall trend of A-shares this week, as well as the trend of this Friday, it is expected that next Monday will open low and go high, and the opening inertia will be lowered, and then led by the two major sectors such as major ** and technology, pulling up the index**, and it is expected to close out of the small and medium-yang ** next Monday.

Why is it opening lower next Monday? Because there is inertia, and Friday is dominated by ** all day, although the midday index has narrowed, but the pull up force is not strong, so the bulls are weak, and the bears are stronger.

Since Friday is still a bearish market as a whole, and this bearish force will inevitably continue to next Monday, according to the inertial thinking of the market, it is very likely that the index will continue to open low next Monday.

In addition, ** will open low and then take a small probe of the trend, and then the bulls will begin to exert force, directly pushing up the **index, and next Monday** is bullish.

The reason is that all major sectors have entered the adjustment this Friday, finance, technology, medicine, liquor, etc., many of them have been supported on the 20th this week, and they will rise next Monday.

And then there is this week**4 consecutive trading days back and forth**, which has been adjusted for so many days. Especially on Friday, the 20th** support was tested again, and then it was pulled up, indicating that this support is effective, and the bulls will do their best to protect the disk ** below the 20th**, and next Monday will come out of the pull-up trend after the bottom.

Of course**next Monday, open low and go high, and close out the small and medium-sized yang** are completely from this week's trend, and it is expected to be combined with **technology**. After all, next Monday is already two days apart, and the weekend news will also directly affect the trend of next Monday.

According to the trend of the sharp fall of the ** index on Friday, the weekend news must be more bearish, after all, Friday** will reflect the weekend news in advance. If there is major positive news over the weekend, the index will rise at the end of the session, but the end of the session** did not rise, but weakened near the end of the session.

Therefore, Friday's ** trend speculation, the weekend news is bearish, and it is not excluded that there will be big negative news, and the negative news will affect the opening, which is in line with the trend of **, and it will rise after a slight dip after opening low.

Comprehensive multi-faceted, next Monday is a short-term opportunity to suck low, open low and go high, and then pull up the index by the major plates, overall, next Monday **bullish, first suppressed and then rising.

As things stand, next Monday** should be in an uptrend, because the downtrend has already passed.

There is a high probability that the index will open lower and higher next Monday, and financial stocks will pull up the index again, of course, not as crazy as it has been in the past two weeks. Therefore, as long as financial stocks protect the market next Monday, it is impossible for the index to continue to fall sharply. It can be recalled that on Friday, the main reason for the sharp drop in A-shares on Friday was the collective decline of financial stocks and cyclical stocks, especially financial stocks were the hardest hit area on Friday.

In recent trading days, the trend is not stable, more turbulent, and there has been a sharp fall in Friday's intraday, but fortunately, it has risen in the afternoon, which is not enough for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and the Growth Enterprise Market to ****, especially some technology stocks have fallen more seriously, indicating that the bears have the advantage. The recent ** plunge has dealt a big blow to investor confidence, as well as the turmoil in the external market, which will have a certain negative impact, and I am afraid that it will still be difficult to get rid of the decline next Monday.

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