How to alleviate the current liquidity constraints

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One of the points mentioned upstairs is the demographic dividend, which is significantly decreasing, and the aging population accounts for more and more of the population. As a result, the social population of young adults is getting smaller and smaller, and the effective working population is paying more and more pension insurance, and in the case of income unchanged or even declining, more people will not be able to pay pensions. In many cities, the migrant worker class should start to surrender the insurance, which can be regarded as one of the crises.

There is also China's current liquidity is large, but is a structural inequality of funds, holding abundant funds are mostly foreign funds, and domestic funds are still very tight, since 08 years after foreign capital because of the global quantitative easing and four trillion investment plan, the entry of foreign capital and the allocation to state-owned enterprises, especially the investment funds of infrastructure projects, the formation of inflation, the need for austerity policy to come down, so from the end of last year began to implement a gradual monetary tightening policy, the purpose is to shrink the social capital side, It has also made hot money unprofitable, but now it seems that this kind of austerity is profoundly affecting the development of China's economy, especially the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, and the market is very tight on funds, while speculative funds and loans to state-owned enterprises are still abundant.

I feel that this has something to do with the increasing aging of the population.

In Shanghai and Shenzhen, the Shanghai Composite Index fell hundreds of points, not only falling below the previous low of 2,481 points, but also hitting a 14-month low. Such a stormy ** once again dealt a devastating blow to investor confidence. However, the relevant person interviewed by this reporter said that **later**there will be technology**.

The reason is not unexpected.

For yesterday's phenomenon, Zhou Sili, assistant director of the Northeast Finance and Industry Research Institute, believes that it is still due to macroeconomic fundamentals and market liquidity. From the perspective of macroeconomic fundamentals, although the macroeconomic data for the first half of this year will not be released until mid-July. "But according to our **, this year's economic growth rate peaked in the first quarter, and then it will fall quarter by quarter, and the decline will continue into the first quarter of next year.

Because the first quarter of this year is the high point, then the growth rate in the first quarter of next year will be relatively low. "Zhou Sili's ** values are that the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year is about between; In the second half of this year, it will fall back to between; It will fall further to around 8% in the first quarter of next year. As a macroeconomic"Barometer"Of course, there will be a reaction, and it will be in advance.

From the perspective of the international economic situation, at the G20 summit, many countries, especially EU members, called for the reduction of fiscal deficits, which means that loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy will be withdrawn. Although the probability of raising interest rates and raising the reserve requirement ratio again in the short term is not large, market expectations have turned pessimistic.

The results of the IPO inquiry of the Agricultural Bank of China also have a certain impact on the market. "Zhou Sili explained to reporters that it stands to reason that the initial offering of ABC's yuan shares is lower than originally expected, and the price-to-book ratio is only about a multiple, which has certain advantages over ICBC, Bank of China, and CCB that have been listed; But dialectically it is not so simple, because the IPO inquiry results of the Agricultural Bank of China are lower than market expectations and lower than the price-to-book ratio of the other three major banks, then, there is pressure on the valuation of the other three major banks, and we need to find opportunities to release this pressure"Green"。

Feng Wensuo, a senior strategic analyst at the new era, said that the narrow range between 2500-2600 points has been more than a month, and the volume of transactions has been frequent in recent days, and the trading volume of the two markets on Monday this week is only 90.9 billion, these signals indicate that the market is about to change, and now it seems that the bottom of the market is not really clear.

Feng Wensuo also believes that from yesterday's market, there is almost no resistance in the process, the bears are fierce, and there should be a huge negative behind it, but there are only two major negatives that are clear: one is the IPO of the Agricultural Bank of China, regardless of whether its initial ** is high or low, but it will divert funds from the market; Second, there are ** reports that the United States"Two bedrooms"(i.e. real estate, Fannie Mae) delisted, while Chinese financial institutions currently hold $500 billion"Two bedrooms"It will become increasingly difficult to liquidate bonds and sell-offs.

Of course, the current high valuation of the small and medium-sized board and the gem also needs to make up for the decline. "Feng Wensuo said that the current average price-earnings ratio of the small and medium-sized board is about 40 times, which is twice as high as the average price-earnings ratio of the main board market, and it is necessary to release valuation risks.

1. The market competition is fierce, and the products cannot be sold in time.

2. Even if it is sold, the proportion of credit sales is too large, and the payment cannot be collected in time.

3. Poor inventory control and excessive capital occupation.

4. Failure to make full use of credit conditions to extend the payment of arrears.

Fund Balance Leads the capital turnover ratio.