Whether real estate will rise or fall in the next five years

In the future, the overall trend of domestic housing prices is to fall, only in first- and second-tier cities.

Affected by the purchase restriction and sales restriction policy, it will be slow and gradually meet the local demand.

Revenue-linked. And third- and fourth-tier cities.

In the future, housing prices may fall sharply, because the outflow of population in third- and fourth-tier cities is greater than the inflow, the industrial base is relatively weak, and the monetization of shantytown reform and resettlement.

Quit. So, it's likely that there will be big ups and downs for the following reasons:

1. It's not that China's housing prices can't rise, but the bubble is too big. At present, the total market value of China's real estate has reached 450 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the total market value of real estate in the United States, Japan and Europe. In this case, the bigger the domestic housing bubble, the greater the risk.

China's housing prices continue to rise, rivaling the total market value of global real estate. It can be seen that the domestic real estate bubble.

It can't be blown anymore.

2. It's not that Chinese residents don't want to take out a loan to buy a house, but the leverage has been exhausted. 50% of households in China have no bank deposits, and 80% of households in China owe bank mortgages. What's worse is that 77% of China's total household assets are real estate, and only 23% are financial assets.

Obviously, housing prices have risen for four consecutive years, and the national leverage has been exhausted, and it is quite difficult to increase leverage.

3. The downward pressure on the economy is increasing, real estate regulation is continuing, and speculators will gradually withdraw, which undoubtedly gives real estate an opportunity to return to residential attributes. Economic growth in the past.

Rapidly, the policy encourages everyone to buy a house, and various housing needs have boosted the prosperity of the property market, and housing prices have been speculated day by day. Now, all kinds of situations are not conducive to home buyers, housing prices have shown the end of a strong crossbow, and real estate will enter a period of adjustment in the second half of the year.

At the end of the month, the Politburo meeting.

It reiterates that "houses are for living, not for speculation". Moreover, the decision-making level is also making every effort to promote the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate. In addition to property taxes in the future.

The launch of the rental market and affordable housing should also be carried out.

market, etc., through multi-subject supply, multi-channel security, to solve the housing problem of residents.

Summary: In the future, housing prices will face a long period of major adjustments. Judging from the current situation, it is impossible for housing prices to rise sharply, because residents' leverage has been exhausted.

Moreover, at present, the downward pressure on the economy is high, and the real estate regulation and control will be intensively introduced in the second half of the year, so the asset bubble is easy to burst, so the first and second-tier cities have realized price limits and sales restrictions.

When the real estate regulation policy gradually completes its historical mission, the long-term real estate mechanism will be fully launched, which not only includes real estate tax, but also includes other affordable housing systems in addition to commercial housing. In the future, commercial housing will not be speculated at all, and it can only return to residential properties. Therefore, the future house price is **.

China's future housing prices are likely to be the most important, the reason why I say this, mainly for the following reasons:

Housing prices themselves will also increase with the development of the economy, in the future domestic economic development speed is definitely getting faster and faster, the local economy is definitely getting better and better, in this case, housing prices are likely to increase with the economy.

At present, the country has fully liberalized the two-child and three-child policies, and the liberalization of this policy means that there will be more young people in the future.

With the development of the economy, whether it is labor cost or price, in fact, it has always been the best, but these two factors also directly determine the house price, so if you look at it from this point of view, there is no possibility of house price.

The most critical point is actually the land, and now the developer has to go to auction if he wants to get the land, but the land auctioned from the **over there is relatively expensive, so the built house **** will not be too low. Enter.

Will house prices rise or fall in the next 5 years?

How far will China's housing prices fall in the next five years? You can't believe it.

Housing prices in the next five years will only be stable, with slight ups and downs, and the third and fourth-tier cities with large increases in previous years may see a certain decline. Stability-oriented. This is the basic style of housing prices, and it is also the basic style of the entire property market.

Hello, real estate issues should be divided into first-tier, second-tier, third-tier cities to answer questions, the next five years to the population to the first-tier cities will be less and less, housing prices will decline steadily. Second-tier cities will reduce prices a little more, and third-tier cities will fall sharply if no one cares about them.

It's hard to say, China's vested interests won't let themselves....Bamboo baskets to fetch water.

In the next five years, the house will not rise as sharply as before, according to the policy, it has been stabilized, and the third and fourth tier cities will fall, of course, it must also be combined with the actual situation, and the first war friction with the United States will be further escalated.

It won't go up, it will only **. First-tier cities will not rise, but third- and fourth-tier cities may rise.

Personally, I think that first- and second-tier cities will rise, and third- and fourth-tier cities will fall.

Go up, there are still aircraft carriers that need to be launched.

Unless there is an industry that can replace real estate, and can also drive several industries at the same time like real estate, the new industry will be able to fall. But the sum is definitely going up.

We judge from the preconditions of ups and downs, whether real estate will rise or fall in the next five years.

Real estate purchasing power determines whether real estate is ** or **. That is, when the people's purse still has money, the house price should go to **; Conversely, when purchasing power is weak, real estate is powerless.

Due to economic development, housing prices** are an inevitable trend.

Tier-1 city centers or nearby will fall. The 23rd line will basically go up.

The house will not fall, because there is less and less land.

If the plate is different, the currency depreciation will rise!

Will the ratio depreciate?

Yes, then it will go up!!

The more developed the city, the more it will rise, and vice versa.

It won't fall, it will slowly stabilize, and then slowly rise.

When big cities find that they can't afford it, if the economy and income are not ideal, the number of buyers decreases, and the holidays tend to stabilize or decline.

The situation varies from city to city.

If the price is reduced on a large scale, the original mortgage buyers will be embarrassed and will inevitably fluctuate greatly.

Focusing on stability, there will be no big ups and downs!

In the next five years, China's real estate market as a whole will not rise or fall very much, and the best time for investment has passed, and it is only possible to develop steadily.

For first-tier cities with an unabated population inflow trend, the probability of housing prices is larger, and the probability of housing prices is less.

For third- and fourth-tier cities, with the fluctuation of urbanization trends and changes in housing supply and demand, the fluctuation of housing prices is much larger than that of first- and second-tier cities.

In general, it is inevitable that the house will not be speculated; The residential properties of the house have returned, and the investment properties have weakened.

You can only go low except for the big cities.

After decades of development, the current people, the per capita annual income is less than 10,000, this **, has far exceeded their expectations, their income and the current housing prices, is not proportional at all. Therefore, with the encouragement of the property market, a series of policies have been introduced to make the property market more stable.

From a national point of view, the next five years of housing prices **and** is not a complete concept, now real estate has entered the real economy, representing the wealth and wealth of a family, but in general, the property market needs to be stable, and finally the property market returns to the residential attribute is the most important rock grasp, the market has accelerated polarization, since there is a rise, there will be a fall, return to the original, value preservation and appreciation of such attributes will not disappear at once.

China has a population of 1.4 billion, an urbanization rate of 66%, an urban population of 900 million, an average of three people per household, and 250 million houses, which is enough for a family to live in for the first four people. From an inventory standpoint, house prices are hard**, why are so many homes so hard to buy? And the reason why housing prices are so high is because many people have three or ten buildings in their homes to earn the difference.

Last year, the country introduced hundreds of macroeconomic controls, to stabilize housing prices, in the strong promotion of the first place, many places of real estate ** have declined, some places have reached 10%. Because of the epidemic, the current economic downturn, many people have given up their plans to buy a house, so many companies have low revenues, most of which are zero profits, a year-on-year decrease of 50%. Similarly, in response to the call of "housing not speculation", many places have implemented purchase restrictions, but what is lacking is the lack of vitality of real estate.

Although the purchase restriction policy has been eased to a certain extent, and relevant policies have also been introduced, the trend of the property market is still very sluggish.

The above is all the content of whether house prices will rise in the next 5 years, I believe that everyone is still very concerned about the news that is closely related to their own housing prices, so it is recommended that you usually pay more attention to relevant news policies, maybe when you can use it.

Recently, someone asked whether housing prices will rise or fall in the next five years, and the expert's analysis hit the nail on the head.

I believe we all know that the changes in the property market cannot be generalized, housing prices look at the policy in the short term, the economy in the medium term, and the population in the long term.

And there is a big difference between first-tier cities and small cities. The first-tier cities will never worry about selling, even if the population declines, everyone is still eager to receive first-line education and hope to enjoy the first-line welfare treatment, so the first-line housing prices do not represent the national housing prices.

In the short term, China has slowed down the demolition work, and many cities have replaced the demolition work with the renovation of old buildings, which has also cut off the fresh blood of the property market.

At the same time, China also proposed to stabilize housing prices, land prices, and expectations, which shows that although China does not want housing prices to rise sharply, it does not want housing prices to fall sharply in the short term.

At least at present, housing prices have to be supported, and when China's economy gets rid of its dependence on real estate and establishes a new economic model, housing prices can be slow.

And in the long run, China's population is the first year by year, so there is no room for housing prices in the future.

Housing prices in the next five years. House prices** or down? Estimated house price within five years. **Not a lot of space. There will be a decline in some areas.

Housing prices in the next 5 years should maintain a stable trend, there will be no big ** or **, now the house in addition to just need, there is no one to speculate, so there will be no big fluctuations in house prices.

Generally speaking, house prices will change with the change of policy and will not fluctuate much.

The house in the future no one will be able to protect the dialectic.

Nowadays, most of the people who have housing needs are young people, and the increase in affordable rental housing is mainly to solve the problem that young people cannot afford to buy houses and cannot rent good houses, which is definitely a big benefit for some new citizens with insufficient economic strength. Now it has been about half a year since the state announced this policy, and batches of affordable housing have been completed one after another, and in the future, you can rent a house with better conditions for less money.

At the end of October last year, the state announced that it would carry out pilot real estate tax reform in some areas, which means that in the future, the more people who hold real estate, the more they will have to pay for the cost of holding a house. As a result, some speculators began to reduce the price and sell their houses, which means that the number of houses on the market has increased, and it is very likely that the house price will continue to be in the middle of the house at this time.

The rest

In the past, many speculators valued old and dilapidated houses very much, because such houses are likely to be demolished, and the demolition money is much higher than the income brought by house speculation. Now that the selling state has announced that the old will be renovated to replace the shantytown, many owners of old houses are waiting for free repairs not for demolition, but for free repairs by the state. Speculators no longer have so much money to spend on flipping houses, and house prices will fall in the near future.

Nowadays, many families are reluctant to have a second or even third child because of the high cost of raising children, and one of the biggest costs is the house. In order to implement the three-child policy, the state is making efforts to extend maternity leave, increase birth subsidies, and stabilize housing prices.

First, urbanization will slow down. China's urbanization level is already relatively high, and the growth rate will be significantly reduced in the future. The urbanization rate is expected to grow from the current 60% to 70%, the increase in the urbanization rate is facing a ceiling phenomenon, the growth rate of the urban population is slowing down, and it is impossible to grow by a few percentage points per year in the future, and the demographic dividend of urbanization will gradually disappear.

Second, the total amount of old city renovation will be reduced. After more than 20 years of urban construction, the situation of "large-scale demolition and large-scale construction" of the old city will gradually disappear.

Third, the quality of housing has been greatly improved. In 2012, the then Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a residential quality standard, which regulated the construction quality of various commercial houses such as residential and office buildings, and raised the safety standard period of about 30 years for commercial housing to at least 70 years, or even 100 years. This means that after 2010, all kinds of commercial houses newly built in the city can theoretically be used for 70 100 years, which means that the amount of depreciation and renovation in the old city will be greatly reduced.

Assuming that a city has a stock of 1 billion cubic metres of housing stock, and based on a 30-year depreciation period, about 30 million square metres of houses will be demolished and rebuilt every year, and if the depreciation period becomes 100 years, the average number of houses rebuilt each year will be just over 10 million square meters.

Fourth, the housing market has been basically balanced, and the per capita housing area will not increase significantly. At present, China's per capita housing area has reached 50 square meters, and the requirements for improving the housing of families in difficulty have gradually decreased. In the future, although there will continue to be a demand for housing improvement, it is only partial and structural, and on the whole, the phenomenon of insufficient per capita housing area will gradually disappear.