Tell us about your views on the development trend of China s economy after the epidemic

The long-term trend of China's economic development will not change. Under the intertwining of internal and external risks and challenges, we must also do a good job in macroeconomic monitoring and early warning, closely monitor the economic operation, and focus on the impact and impact of the epidemic on economic operation.

Realistically speaking, the sudden epidemic has brought varying degrees of impact to some industry enterprises and mass consumption. However, the impact is temporary and phased, and the relevant policy support work is gradually yielding results, and we are fully confident and capable of defeating the epidemic and boosting the economy. But in epidemic prevention and control.

In the battle, to continue to move forward against the wind and resist downward pressure, we must follow the requirements of the Politburo Standing Committee meeting, focus on the "six stability" work, and be prepared to deal with all kinds of complex and difficult situations. By adhering to the national game of chess, giving full play to the institutional advantages of concentrating on major issues, and conducting timely analysis and prompt action, we will be able to properly respond to the impact of the epidemic, balance epidemic prevention and control and economic development, and promote the steady and long-term development of China's economy.

China's economy is still facing some difficulties and challenges in the short term.

First of all, this year's fresh graduates should be properly addressed.

and the employment of farmers, because the solution of the employment problem will directly lead to the growth of consumption; Second, it is necessary to prevent industrial chains and value chains.

Fracture problem, in response to the challenge of traditional manufacturing, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, resulting in obscene consumer demand, in this case, the traditional manufacturing industry will definitely be affected under the influence of blocked exports and sluggish consumption. However, we should pay attention to the diversity of China's industrial institutions, in terms of information technology, intellectual output, etc., we have made great breakthroughs in recent years, and the traditional manufacturing provinces are also accelerating the transformation and upgrading to the "no man's land."

Advance, so the fundamentals of our country's economy have been good for a long time.

It will not change, and the short-term impact is estimated to be hedged by the state's increased macroeconomic control measures. Third, the key to China's economic development lies in expanding domestic demand.

We have long been an economy dominated by domestic demand, and we have taken the lead in controlling the epidemic in the world, and the vast majority of provinces in the country have entered low-risk areas of the epidemic, and the order of production and life is gradually being restored, so how to effectively expand domestic demand will be the key to hedging the impact of the epidemic. Finally, due to the impact of the epidemic, the international transportation of goods has been hindered to a certain extent, resulting in the international cooperation of some industries being affected, and the other country may find partners from its own country or other countries to bridge its internal industrial chain and value chain, and China's related industries may lose part of the international market.

Therefore, it is necessary to resolve the impact of the epidemic on imports and exports.

From the perspective of the world's epidemic response, China is the best country in the world among nearly 200 countries to control the epidemic, and it is also the country with the earliest economic start, and the only country with positive economic growth.

In the first quarter of 2023, China's national economy has achieved a good start, with the rapid and stable transition of epidemic prevention and control, various policy measures to stabilize growth, employment and prices to move forward, positive factors have accumulated, and the national economy has stabilized and rebounded. Considering the low base affected by the epidemic in the second quarter of last year, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year may be significantly faster than that in the first quarter; As the base rises, the growth rate will fall back in the third and fourth quarters. However, on the whole, the endogenous driving force of China's economic growth has gradually increased, macroeconomic policies have been effective, and the economic operation is expected to improve as a whole.

The new crown pneumonia epidemic will not only have a certain impact on China's economic development in the short term, but also have a certain short-term impact on the world economic development. In the short term, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy and industrial chain is inevitable, global economic and trade growth is facing certain pressure, and the resumption of work and production of Chinese foreign trade enterprises and the acquisition of new orders will also be affected to a certain extent.

Only by strengthening cooperation on a global scale can we strive to minimize the impact of the epidemic on China's foreign trade and the world's development. Objectively, it can be analyzed from the perspective of China's relationship with the world economy and the overall context of globalization.

The pandemic will not change the long-term development trend of China and the world economy.

Although the epidemic will have a certain impact on China's economy and the development of the world economy in the short term. However, the pandemic will not fundamentally change the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth, nor will it fundamentally change China's intrinsic relationship with the world economy, let alone the pattern of global value chains.

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In 2020, in the face of the severe and complex domestic and international environment, especially the severe impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China took the lead in epidemic prevention and control, the first to resume work and production, and the first to turn economic growth from negative to positive. In the hot construction site, in the fireworks in the streets and alleys, and in the bustling lights, China's economy has stepped out of a gorgeous "V" curve. According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in December 2020, the world economy will shrink in 2020, and China will remain the only major economy to achieve positive growth this year, and China's contribution to world economic growth in 2021 is expected to exceed 1 3.

Judging from the current situation, epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, and in this case, it is obvious that it will have a certain impact on the economy. The first to be hit by the traditional manufacturing industry, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, resulting in obscene consumer demand, in this case, the traditional manufacturing industry in the export blockage, consumption downturn, will definitely be affected. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the diversity of China's industrial institutions, in terms of information technology, intellectual output, etc., we have made great breakthroughs in recent years, and the traditional manufacturing provinces are also accelerating the transformation and upgrading to the "no man's land", so the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement will not change, and the short-term impact is estimated to need to be hedged by the country's increased macroeconomic regulation and control means.

The key lies in expanding domestic demand. We have long been an economy dominated by domestic demand, and we have taken the lead in controlling the epidemic in the world, and the vast majority of provinces in the country have entered the low-risk areas of the epidemic, and the order of production and life is gradually being restored, so how to effectively expand domestic demand will be the key to hedging the impact of the epidemic.

The Politburo meeting on March 27 proposed to intensify the adjustment and implementation of macroeconomic policies. It is necessary to get a good grasp of studying and proposing a package of macroeconomic policy measures to deal with the positive response, the proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising, and the prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate. Therefore, to hedge the impact of the epidemic on the economy, monetary and fiscal policies are bound to play a greater role.

As a result, China's economic instability has also led to the inactivity of the real estate market, especially the entertainment industry such as KTV tourism and tourism are all sluggish, and many small companies have closed down if they can't hold on. But there are many new types of industries that have also become prosperous, and it can be said that there are pros and cons.

The epidemic has led to a slow economic development, which has affected many industries, including the catering industry, people's lives have been affected, people have become panicked, and some businesses have closed.

It has affected the development of the economy, led to slow economic development, affected many real economies, many large enterprises have been hit, and many enterprises are facing closure.

As a result of my economic instability, it has also led to the inactivity of real estate, especially the travel industry, and the entertainment industry, which has all been sluggish, and many small businesses have closed down, but many new industries have also become prosperous, perhaps it is bad luck and disadvantages.

1. In response to the impact of the epidemic on the economy**, we will continue to adopt a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, increase fiscal expenditure, reduce tax rates, reduce taxes, increase subsidies, reduce the tax burden of enterprises, stimulate the vitality of enterprises, increase aggregate social demand, and promote high-quality economic development.

2. Reduce the reserve requirement ratio and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans, expand the scale of credit, increase the amount of money in circulation, improve the utilization rate of resources, promote the strategic adjustment of the economic structure, promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, promote scientific and technological progress, and improve the ability of independent innovation, so as to promote the development of the real economy.

Extended information: 1. How much impact will the pneumonia epidemic have on China's economy?

1. This epidemic is a very typical exogenous event impact. The impact of the epidemic on China's economy is mainly in the first quarter, and under the impact of the epidemic, economic activities will cool down sharply in the short term, and economic activities such as service industry and industrial investment will be affected. In particular, the consumption of non-durable consumer goods in the last month will be significantly affected, such as movie box office, tourism, etc.

In addition, the base of last year's economic growth rate is a little higher, and the economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year will break "6".

2. However, it should also be noted that the consumption of many durable goods has only been delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, and there will be compensatory consumption after the epidemic is over. For example, many people may plan to buy a car or house during the Spring Festival holiday, but they are unable to go out due to the epidemic, and the demand for this has not disappeared, but has been delayed until the epidemic is over. It is believed that with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, economic activities will appear, and China's economy will return to normal track - if the epidemic is contained soon, the macro data in March will improve slightly, and the economy will improve a little earlier.

If the epidemic prevention and control is not so optimistic, the economy will be a little later**.

3. Overall, the sudden emergence of the "black swan" of the epidemic is only a short-term emergency that temporarily increases the volatility of economic operation, but in the long run, the epidemic will not have much impact on China's economy. S&P believes that the epidemic will affect China's economy by one percent, and I don't think it will reach that extent, and I am not so pessimistic.