Is a house still worth anything in 2030? Ma Yun Li Ka shing s conscience advice, what do you think?

Owning a house of your own, in this era has become an unattainable dream for many of us, the current housing price can be called an inch of land, no, it should be said, more terrible than an inch of land, an ordinary family's income can afford a bathroom in a first-tier city is not necessarily.

Although this metaphor is very **, but the fact is that it is true, everyone's mortgage is overwhelmed, in this environment, will housing prices fall? When will it fall? It has become the hottest topic for everyone.

Ma Yun's inference of housing prices Needless to say, Ma Yun's name is needless to say, he is the founder of Alibaba, although there are factors that create heroes in the times, but it is undeniable that he has created a world with his own hands.

Ma Yun once said a "six-character mantra" at the Hangzhou Yunqi Conference, which greatly inspired the majority of young peopleJack Ma said, "The future housing prices are like onions".

Of course, there is a certain exaggeration in this sentence, but I think it is actually not unreasonable. The theme of Jack Ma's speech at that time was to inspire young people to start their own businesses, have the courage to work hard, and not to tie themselves down for the sake of a house. Although it is still very illusory like a flower in a mirror and a moon in the water, it may not be impossible to combine the state's regulation and control of the property market.

Li Ka-shing's view Li Ka-shing's name is known to everyone, he was the first to enter the domestic real estate boss, but he is also a big man who withdrew from this market very early, and has been selling domestic real estate.

Li Ka-cheng said:"The most important factor of the house is the location, and the value of a house with a good location, such as a school district house and a city center point, will definitely be high. ”

Looking at the operations behind it, Li Ka-shing is undoubtedly very confident in his "location theory".

Will house prices go down? Ren Zeping, a famous economist, once proposed"Real estate looks at the population in the long run, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term", which is equivalent to saying that the value of the house mainly depends on the three aspects of "population, land, and finance".

In 2019, the total number of newborns in China was 14.65 million, and as of the end of 2019, China's population aged 60 and above reached 253.88 million, accounting for the total population.

Also, the news on the Internet said,There are enough houses in China to live in 3 billion people, but our total population is only 1.4 billion, and it is declining year by year.

In light of the above, I thinkChina's housing prices will show a polarized pattern in the futureFirst-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will never fall, unless there is any turmoil in the entire world pattern.

Second, third, fourth, and even eighteenth-tier small cities, it is inevitable to reduce prices after many years, and now, most areas will remain at this level, and local areas will get a small amount of **, but there will never be the situation that rose several times a month.

Of course, these are only our inferences, after all, the fact is that housing prices are still expensive!

With the continuous development of China's economy, people's living standards are getting higher and higher, in the eyes of some people, people should be more and more happy, but in a survey can be found that people's happiness index is declining, and most young people are under great pressure to live and face various challenges in society.

First of all, we admit that people's living standards have indeed improved, and people used to have to worry about three meals a day, and some people may not be able to eat a full meal, but now basically as long as they are diligent, they can eat enough. But there is another issue that people need to worry about, and that is housing prices. Even though the epidemic is still very serious, the impact on housing prices is still very small, and people's desire to buy houses is still great, such as the 6 Internet celebrity real estate projects in Shenzhen are on saleIt was snapped up by buyers right away, so it seems that it will be difficult for house prices to fall in the short term.

And we have to know that some college students are only about 24 years old after graduation, but the salary in the early stage is very low, usually only a few thousand yuan. After working for a few years, I am afraid that I can't afford to buy a house, after all, the house prices in some big cities are tens of thousands of square meters, not to mention some first-tier cities, I am afraid that the house prices will be more expensiveThe price of some houses is even as high as tens of millions, and I am afraid that some people will struggle all their lives and cannot afford to buy a house.

But Ma Yun and Li Ka-shing once sincerely advised the people that housing prices will decline in the future, and Ma Yun even compared that housing prices may be the same as the ** of green onions, and Li Ka-shing withdrew from domestic real estate very early, and has been selling domestic real estate in recent years, so Li Ka-shing is not optimistic about the value of the house. First of all, these two are very powerful businessmen in our country, both worth hundreds of billions, and their vision is naturally more long-term than most people. Ma Yun believes that the future house price may be the same as the ** of green onions, while Li Ka-shing believes that the location is very important, which seems to indicate that the house will have a downward trend in the future.

In fact, it seems that the downward trend of housing prices is not obvious, after all, real estate is closely related to many banks, and the most obvious is that it has a deep connection with finance。Some real estate is very prosperous and there are some bank support behind it, if the house price suddenly ** will affect the bank, and the bank is related to the lifeblood of the national economy, once there are some problems, I am afraid that there will be a certain impact on the national economy, from this point of view, the house can not be quickly**.

And we need to know that as people's living standards improve. The money in people's hands is also depreciating, for example, 100 yuan 20 years ago and 100 yuan now, its value must be different, and the things that can be bought are also different, so the house price is still very slim, but if you are optimistic about the downward trend of house prices, you can buy a house more cautiously.

The house is worthless, and I think it's useless for them to tell each other bitterly, and it can't stop the people from buying a house, because now if you want to get married, you must have a house.

1. Ma Yun said that house prices in 2025 are like onions is an exaggeration, Ma Yun's original words are "In the past 8 years, China's housing prices have shown a trend as a whole, and the cheapest thing in the future may be the house, and the house price is like a green onion, like a leaf (as worthless)." "2. Ma Yun said that the house price in 2025 is the first to the future house price. In the past, the rapid development of real estate and the rapid growth of housing prices made the real estate industry no longer develop so rapidly, but should return to the track of rational development.

In the future, real estate should be maintained at a reasonable development rate, and housing prices should also be maintained at a reasonable level, so after the future residence is resolved, the house will naturally be worthless. 3. Ma Yun said that the house price in 2025 is now a reality, and the national average house price from January to February 2022 is 9,845 yuan square meters, with a sharp decline of . When the house price **, many families are reluctant to buy a house, worried about the risk of shrinking family assets, when the asset depreciation, buyers are not eligible to ask the developer to compensate for their losses The annual national average house price is expected to be about 10,000 yuan.

Since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has been in a downturn for a long time, and the trend of property market adjustment has been very obvious. From 2020 to 2022, "housing for living, not for speculation" has been written into the ** work report for three consecutive years. Guarantee the rigid demand for housing, and at the same time meet reasonable improvement needs, promote the virtuous cycle of the real estate industry and the development of Jianpei Danqiaokang, and strive to stabilize land prices, housing prices, and expectations. Late digging.

Ten years ago, ten years ago, some people also said that the house ** was too high, and ten years ago someone said that the house would not go up again.

Ma Yun boldly "predicted" that in 10 years, the most valuable thing is not oil and houses, but big data.

Jack Ma has said this more than once, and he has also advised young people not to buy a house, and in ten years the house will be like a leaf.

First, after 8 years, the house will definitely not be the cheapest thing, if this theory is true, those countries that are more developed than us, should the house be cut as casually as weeds?

Ma Yun said this, depending on his context, he is pushing Sesame Credit, and there is no deposit for renting a house in the future, and there is no intermediary fee.

The implication is that young people don't buy a house now, what if they don't buy a house, rent, rent a house with sesame credit, no deposit, no intermediary fee!

Because 10 years later, when the only child grows up, his parents give him a suite, and the older ones on both sides give him at least one suite, you say.

Ma Yun said that in ten years, the house will not be worth much. No one can be sure in the future, but we like **, **about house prices are the most concerned**, especially ** by successful companies**. Ma Yun makes electrical appliances and also talked about housing prices.

In his keynote speech at the World Summit in Hangzhou, Jack Ma said that China's housing prices have been significantly higher in the past 10 years. But apart from the inflationary elements of the bloat, the cheapest place in China in 10 years is probably home.

Ma Yun said that the house will be cheap in 10 years, for example, the per capita monthly income is 3,000 yuan now, and the average house is 8,500 yuan per square meter, and the per capita monthly income is 10,000 yuan in 10 years, and the average house is 12,000 yuan per square meter.

Compared with ancient and modern Chinese and foreign housing prices, China's current housing prices are in the highest period of housing prices, and the current housing prices, families with an annual income of 80,000 yuan, the whole family can buy a 100-square-meter three-bedroom ordinary trading company without eating or drinking for 15 years, and Wang answered that the price is very high.

If housing prices continue to be the best, all aspects of society can not afford it, since they can't afford it, then the house price will lose the momentum, that is to say, the current house price, relative to the income of the people, has indeed reached the peak. Therefore, the house will not become a means of maintaining the value of wealth, and people who have been slaves for decades wait for the depreciation of the house!

It turns out about whether house prices will soar in the next 5 years? Li Ka-shing has long said that if we continue to build a large number of houses blindly, the houses will not be worth much in five years.

A few years ago, China's housing prices continued to soar, and many businessmen saw the soaring housing prices and abandoned their original projects and turned to the real estate market, hoping to make a lot of money through their houses. Developers are crazy about enclosing land and blindly building houses. As a result, China's housing vacancy rate has skyrocketed.

It is understood that the vacancy rate in China today is close to 30, with about 65 million vacant houses.

Everyone has a different view on real estate, everyone knows that Ma Yun is not optimistic about the trend of real estate, and many people are impressed by the remarks of housing prices. As a real estate tycoon, Li Ka-shing is also not so good at real estate. Li Ka-shing said, "On the one hand, my principle of doing business is to be very careful about debt and loans, and to walk on thin ice.

On the other hand, I am in the real estate business. If the real estate ** is too high, it will be risky to operate when the people can't afford it, and I won't risk making the last copper plate.

Li Ka-shing said: In front of the opportunity, the fourth-class people believe in the opportunity: you don't have to see it to be believing, you can do it if you believe that you can succeed.

Second-class people seize the opportunity: see others succeed, see is believing. Third-class people waiting for the opportunity:

Know what to do to succeed, but still wait and wait for a better opportunity. Fourth-class people lose opportunities: they are unwilling to change, they know that the opportunity is coming, but they do not grasp it or let it go away.

In such an era of change, it can be said that many people want to start a business, and the death of one industry will inevitably lead to the emergence of another new industry, which is a product of the times.

At the Hangzhou Summit, Ma Yun once again publicly said: In the future, houses will be as cheap as green onions! Ma Yun said that in the past eight years, China's housing prices as a whole have been in a state of substantial **.

Eight years from now, the cheapest thing in China will probably be a house.

Will houses in China really be as cheap as green onions? Taobang believes that with the change of people's concepts, houses will no longer be scarce, and the decline is a high probability event.

Taobang Lord noticed a data: according to incomplete statistics, Shenzhen currently has 10.41 million housing units, and Shenzhen will add 700,000 housing units during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The per capita population of Shenzhen is per person, and according to the calculation of each household, the existing housing in Shenzhen can accommodate 28 million people, and the actual population of Shenzhen is about 20 million people.

From this point of analysis, if it is used for hype, it is not enough, if the house you are just used to live in, we think it is enough! Seeing this, believe that the house is falling within a certain range, that is for sure.

Especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, housing prices will definitely drop sharply. Housing prices in first-tier cities have fallen, but not much. Why? There are six main reasons for this:

1. There is a need to control the real estate bubble, and it is hoped that the soft landing of real estate will take seven or eight years to give the industrial transformation time to transition. Therefore, the big drop that Ma Yun said is impossible, that is, a hard landing, directly puncture the foam. The consequences of a hard landing are terrible.

2. Large cities have a population accumulation effect, attracting the population of third- and fourth-tier cities to disperse. The siphon effect in large cities is obvious. Housing prices are ultimately driven by population, and no one is going to buy a house?

In the past eight years, the impact of the one-child policy has not passed, the growth of the second-child population has not risen, the national population has declined, and the aging phenomenon is obvious. The elderly do not need to buy, and the purchasing power of the young population is insufficient. Of course, house prices will fall, but this phenomenon will occur slowly, so there will not be a big drop immediately.

3. The value of real estate investment is gradually losing. Although there are still them, the cost performance has been greatly reduced. It can only focus on high-quality locations and high-quality real estate enterprises. Especially after the crazy rise some time ago, the house price has been overdrawn for quite some time.

4, Chinese people are not short of houses in general, and many families have several houses. After eight years, most of the children are married, and most of them don't need to buy a house, and the motivation to buy a house has declined. Just demand can't support housing prices to continue**.

5. Currency depreciation, an important factor driving this round of housing prices, will also slow down in recent years. Because of the appreciation of the US dollar, if the renminbi continues to depreciate sharply, it will lead to accelerated foreign exchange outflows and a rapid decline in foreign exchange reserves, thus endangering the security of the country's financial system.

6. The concept of young people has changed. Buying a house is generally needed to start a family, and this kind of thinking is especially obvious for the elderly, while the young people's sense of social responsibility and family concept have decreased, while the personality psychology and hedonistic psychology have increased. The high divorce rate and the importance of having fun are the normal psychology of young people nowadays.

Eight years later, it is especially prominent. Young people don't want to let themselves suffer for decades to repay the loan, they just want to enjoy the present.

So on the whole, it is the overall slow decline, the big cities are slower, and the small cities are faster.