What are the consequences of the current low fertility rate

The low cost of living is rising, so low fertility is almost inevitable, and long-term low fertility may lead to a decline in population size. During this period, the population issue was discussed by many people, and the first was that the central bank issued an article saying that birth control should be relaxed to increase China's fertility rate. Although China's population is still the largest in the world, the number of newborns is far from optimistic.

Since the release of the second child, China's birth rate has continued to decline, and the number of newborns registered last year was about 10 million, the lowest in years. Therefore, many scholars say that birth control should be relaxed in time, at least the second child first.

In fact, the low fertility rate is almost all over the world, especially in developed countries, such as Japan and South Korea, where the number of newborns has been declining, especially in South Korea, where the number of newborns has been less than the number of natural deaths due to the impact of the epidemic last year, that is, the population size of Korean society has continued to shrink.

The reason for the low fertility rate is nothing more than the cost of living brought about by economic development**, high prices, high housing prices, so that young families realize that the cost of raising newborns is huge, if they do not like children very much, most families will choose to have children late or even infertility. Some experts warn that a long-term low fertility rate will lead to low competitiveness of the entire country and weaken its overall strength.

Reference: Since the implementation of China's family planning policy in the 70s of the 20th century, China's fertility rate has shown a significant downward trend, from 1970 to 1990. According to the calculation of the age-specific mortality rate in most countries in the world, the replacement level of the population is between, that is to say, China was close to the population replacement level in 1990, and the fertility rate continued to decline in 2018, making China one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate in the world.

Although the emergence of low fertility is the inevitable result of economic and social development, the decline in China's fertility rate is a special phenomenon in a relatively small time span, which will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on the economy and society.

Under the fertility rate, China's total population actually began to grow negatively in 2020, and the biggest impact is the bursting of the housing price bubble, and China's economic structure, which used to be driven by real estate debt, must be transformed, and has to be transformed.

In 2022, China's housing prices will be **, and cyclically** until 2035. The population born in 2012 will only be 23 years old in 2035.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the manufacturing industry will move from the eastern region to the central and western regions, and the population will also move to the central and western regions with the manufacturing industry.

A total of 10,000 newborns were born in 2021 and have been registered nationwide. China's total population has actually been negative since 2020. The digital work of the National Bureau of Statistics is also quite difficult to do.

The decrease in the number of births reduces the demand for real estate, the aging population intensifies the real estate selling pressure, China's real estate overcapacity and oversupply, policy-based housing affordable housing accelerates the increase in price reduction**, the US dollar shrinks its balance sheet in advance and raises interest rates, the real estate tax increases the cost of house holding, and the stampede sale of houses at the expiration of the sales restriction period: China's housing prices will also be **.

One of the first pension issues, we are the population structure is unreasonable, not a simple fertility problem, to put it bluntly, we are young people pay money to the elderly to get pensions, young people are less, the elderly continue to increase (even if you go to take the bus at 90 o'clock in the morning in Shanghai, a car is almost all elderly), where does the pension come from? It's not someone else's pension, it's our future pension! The current situation is also because of the urban-rural dual-track system, and many old men and women in rural areas only give 100 yuan a month to barely make ends meet.

The second is that the house can't be sold, not that it can't be sold in the future, but that once the fertility rate declines, it is decided that it can't be sold, and children are the fundamental motivation for adults to buy a house, to change a small house for a big house, and to change a good lot for a good location. Once everyone doesn't have children, who will buy a house? Who takes out a loan to buy a house?

If you don't get married, you don't get married, and if you get married, what motive do you have for buying a house? The real estate economy is related to many upstream and downstream industries, the house can't be sold, the land can't be sold, and the land can't be sold, you think for yourself.

The third is the downturn in consumption, of course, other Zhihuer have said almost, children are the main driving force of consumption, children grow up fast, food, clothing, housing and transportation consume fast, there is no child what baby products, dairy products, what clothing manufacturing, all in all a series of malaise, don't think about it, this series of manufacturing and even sales will definitely be cold in front of the door in the future.

Fourth, with the downturn in consumption, the decision is to reduce investment, with the reduction of investment, then there will be fewer jobs, investment is because there is a huge market and a huge labor force to invest, consumption is reduced, labor is missing, why invest? Ignorant people say robot manufacturing, robot manufacturing robot consumption? Besides, I can invest in a fully mechanized factory, but can I invest directly in the consumer market?

And with the reduction of a large number of young people, there will also be less innovation.

Fifth, the reduction of consumption and investment is the problem of eating, and there is an unprecedented problem of waste, in recent years, we have built a large number of infrastructure, a large number of houses, a large number of high-speed rail and subway projects, once the number of people is reduced to a certain extent, consumption and investment are reduced, these must be just barren.

First of all, the high housing prices are very serious suppression of the fertility willingness of young couples living in the city, although because of the impact of objective factors such as national macro-control and the epidemic, China's real estate market still maintains strong resilience, according to the authoritative data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price of commercial housing in the country in 2020 is 9860 yuan square meters, a year-on-year increase.

Infant. The second is the high cost of education. We Chinese have regarded education as a top priority since ancient times, and in order to let our children win at the starting line, from birth to adulthood at the age of eighteen, parents living in first- and second-tier cities spend at least 500,000 yuan, or even more than one million, to raise a child.

The increasing proportion of couples in the workforce has also become a major obstacle to the care of children, who have to hire nannies or hire elderly people to take care of them in order to earn money to support their families, and the elderly are too old to physically allow them to take care of them as energetically as young people.

**。Infant.

In the face of workplace competition and family choice, the pressure of modern women has increased exponentially, and having children has become a crossroads for most women's career planning.

In the past, China's fertility rate was relatively high, but in recent years, China is facing the problem of low fertility.

1. Aging is increasing.

As a direct consequence of the low fertility rate, the country's aging population is severe, and a country has an increasing number of elderly people, and with the improvement of medical standards, people's life expectancy is getting longer and longer, and the problem of aging will continue forever. After the elderly population increases, the shortage of state pensions will become bigger and bigger, resulting in a state of not being able to make ends meet, and there is a possibility that the state pensions will not be able to pay any funds.

2. There is no young and middle-aged labor force.

When the number of births is getting smaller and smaller, with the passage of time, young people become old, but there are no new young people to replenish, enterprises cannot recruit young people to work, and some types of work that need to be operated by young adults will be shortage.

3. Consumption is affected.

Young people are the main group of consumers, and when the fertility rate of the population is relatively low, without young people to supplement, the consumption of the whole country will be greatly affected.

4. The problem of pension has intensified.

Aging will increase the pressure of the elderly, and the pension industry has not yet developed, perfected, when the demand for pension is more and more, but can not meet the corresponding demand, people will have the problem of nowhere to rely on.

It can be seen from this that the consequences of the precipitous decline in the fertility rate are still very serious.

The first problem directly brought about by the low fertility rate is that it will accelerate the process of China's aging society, which will put tremendous pressure on China's social basic security and welfare policies. There is an old saying called "raising children to prevent old age", and fertility and pension is just an inverse proportional relationship, now under the pressure of high cost of living, education costs and medical costs, people naturally reduce their willingness to have children, with the reduction of child births, it will increase more and more in the future pension costs, it is foreseeable that the relationship between social family pension and social pension will evolve into a difficult problem to solve.

In other words, the working population will support more and more people who lack or lose the ability to work, and the pension is far from supporting the amount of pension that needs to be received, forming an inverted phenomenon, which requires the state to continuously allocate subsidies, thus bringing heavy pressure to the public pension system. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, by 2050, 1 in 3 people in Chinese society will be elderly, and in 2060, China's elderly will account for about 33% of the total population. The fertility rate has decreased, social wealth has decreased, market demand has decreased, and there is no consumer group with purchasing power and desire to buy, the market will seriously lack vitality, and the fuse of economic malaise will begin to burn.

The data shows that the number of births in 2020 is only 12 million, the household population in China has decreased to people, and the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age has fallen to a very low fertility level.

China's total fertility rate is lower than that of many developed countries in Europe and the United States, even lower than Japan, and only higher than South Korea among the world's major economies - this is still the case of the two-child accumulation effect. Ideally, a couple would have two children in order to ensure that the number of children is equal to that of their parents, and taking into account other factors, the total fertility rate is generally defined as the replacement level.

The total fertility rate means that our population growth is slowing down dramatically, and it is likely to usher in a population contraction, and if we do not take measures to actively deal with it, we may even fall into the "low fertility trap": once the total fertility rate falls below, it will become more difficult to return to it because of the decrease in women of childbearing age and fertility inertia.

One of the impacts: the national pension and social security have caused great pressure, and the low fertility rate has led to the aging of the population, and the primary impact on the country is to bring great pressure to our country's social security mechanism. At present, our country's social security system is a "pay-as-you-go" system.

This system is easy to understand, that is, the social security paid by the current working population in our country is used to receive the pension received by the elderly population now. To put it simply, the next generation pays, and the previous generation receives. This system has lasted for a long time, and in recent years, our country's social security system is running smoothly, but with the passage of time, the problem of demographic imbalance caused by China's low fertility rate will become more and more serious, and demographic imbalance will lead to problems in the current social security mechanism.

The current low fertility rate will have a positive impact on society and have far-reaching implications for social development. The population reduction brought about by low fertility will lead to more people gaining access to land use, sharing social resources, reducing employment pressure, and housing prices**.

The direct consequence of low fertility is population decline. This is what family planning once dreamed of, and it was wanted to achieve through various repressive policies. The reason is simple, the population is decreasing.

The decline in population has reduced the demand for housing, curbing the growth of housing bubbles. Population decline can share more of the big cake of social dividends. More people have access to high-quality education and resources.

Social education is improved, people's quality is improved, employment pressure is reduced in the future, fierce competition in the workplace is eased, housing prices are the best, and people's happy life index will continue to improve.

Recently, some people have suggested that young people working overtime and overtime will affect their marriage and childbirth, which is correct. However, the problem of low fertility is not only caused by young people's extra work, but also has many influencing factors. Specifically, the reasons why young people do not have time to get married and have children include high work pressure, lack of time and energy to get married and have children, limited conditions to get married and have children, and many young people lack the willingness to get married and have children.

1. The high pressure of work makes many young people have no time and energy to have a baby.

One of the reasons why there are many young people who do not marry and have children is because of work. Due to the huge pressure of daily work and the impact of long hours of overtime, many young people do not have enough time and energy to get married and have children, which is a very real reason for the decline in fertility rate.

2. There are many young people who are unable to get married and have babies because of their limited conditions.

Among the young people who are not married and have children, many are due to their own limited conditions. Specifically, these young people have limited economic conditions and lack sufficient ability to get married and have children, and most of them are unable to get married and have children because they have no money to buy a house. This factor affects young people more than the pressure of work and overtime.

3. Some young people lack the willingness to get married and have children, and they are unwilling to get married or have children.

Another important reason for the decline in fertility is that some young people lack the desire to marry and have children. For these young people, they themselves do not have enough will to get married and have children, so they will not take action, and these young people will become older young people, and they will still be single when they are older. This factor is also an important factor in the decline in fertility.

Therefore, there are many reasons why young people do not get married and do not have children, and it is not just the reason for working overtime.