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I think it will affect the economic development of many countries and regions, and may lead to economic crises in some countries.
To some extent, even though the Fed has raised interest rates several times, these operations have not significantly curbed inflation in the United States, which is still around 8%. It is for this reason that of course we are not optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States, and at the same time believe that the United States may usher in a recession. Since then, some institutions have even rated a recession in the United States with a probability of 100%, which means that the recession in the United States has basically become a fact.
There is a good chance that the United States will experience a recession.
With inflation in the United States remaining high, the economic development of the United States has encountered a series of problems. The probability of a recession in the United States has reached 100%, and it is very likely that it will officially usher in a recession within a year. If this is the case, it will not only mean that inflation in the United States cannot be controlled, but also that the income level of many people is further reduced, and it also means that the quality of life of many people will gradually decrease.
This matter will affect the economic development of many countries and regions.
The main reason for this is that the economic stability of the United States itself has a certain role in the stability of the global economy, and if the American economy shows signs of recession, this method will undoubtedly lead to certain economic problems in many countries and regions, and may even lead to economic crises in some countries. At the same time, I think this problem will also lead to corresponding inflation in many countries, and inflation in some small and medium-sized countries may even reach more than 50%. <>
Finally, because each country and region has a certain degree of economic independence, not all countries will experience a recession, but the economic development of many countries will definitely be negatively affected by the recession in the United States.
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It may lead to people in the United States becoming more and more willing to immigrate, and there will be many bankruptcies in the local economy, which will make the epidemic worse.
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The U.S. economy is in recession, which will have an impact on the global economy, and there are opportunities in the risks.
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The United States is now suffering from serious economic inflation, and this situation will also affect the development of the international economy. It will also be very difficult for the American community internally.
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I think this will affect the economic development of many countries and regions and may lead to economic crises in some countries.
Finally, since each country and region has a degree of autonomy, not all countries have experienced a recession, but the economic development of many countries will be adversely affected by the U.S. recession.
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Yes, there is no return, because the United States cannot be alone, and other countries are constantly developing and rising.
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I don't think the decline of the United States has reached the point of no return, but this decline is certainly a heavy blow to the American economy.
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It is an indisputable fact that the United States has entered a period of recession. In fact, its decline period had already appeared before the epidemic, and further back was that the Obama era began to decline.
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America's decline can be reversedThe U.S. economy has only encountered problems in a short period of time, and the U.S. still has very strong scientific and technological strength and financial strength, and will be able to achieve better development in the future.
Many experts believe that the United States will have a recession in the next year, and this trend will continue for 3 to 5 years. I have to admit that there are indeed problems with the economic development of the United States, with inflation as high as 8%, and the epidemic in the United States is still affecting the economic development of the United States.
From an objective point of view, there are indeed problems in the economic development of the United States, but the United States has been developing for hundreds of years and still has advantages that other countries do not have. The real economy and financial industries in the United States have created a large number of jobs for ordinary people, and although the unemployment rate in the United States is relatively serious, it is only a short-term state.
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It is indeed irretrievable, because they have invested too much energy in the war of cultural relics, and they have invested too much money, so it will lead to their own losses.
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Personally, I think that if they don't make some changes, the decline will be irreversible, and the economy will become more and more recessionary.
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American society has now suffered from severe inflation, the depreciation of paper money is very serious, and many people are also facing employment and survival problems, which can no longer be changed.
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The impact on ordinary residents is inflation, prices are **, and the cost of living for residents is rising!
More than seventy percent of the people believe that the future of the United States is bleak, and the US media said that the probability of the US economy declining and regressing within a year has reached 100%, and being tough on China will harm others and ultimately harm themselves.
Recently, with the midterm elections approaching, the phenomenon of "political circle" that has been existing in the United States in recent years has become more and more prominent: the two parties hold diametrically opposed views on all issues, but they have shown a consistent hardline attitude towards China.
The practice of creating a common "enemy" to divert internal contradictions will not in fact change the actual predicament of the United States.
In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of world multipolarization, the status of the United States as the world's sole superpower has gradually declined; in order to maintain its hegemony, the United States must face the rapidly developing China with an attitude of confrontation and competition, otherwise it will have to accept the reality that it is destined to fall off the "throne."
This practice of covering one's ears and stealing the bell has not only not brought a positive impact to the United States, but because it insists on advocating decoupling from the central division countries as the "world's factory" in the context of economic globalization, the social problems of the United States are becoming more and more serious, which has affected the people's confidence in China.
The United States could not accept the fact of its own decline and tried to slow its decline by containing a rising China, but its measures against China eventually fed back to itself, further accelerating the decline process.
Taking the tariffs on China that have been repeatedly mentioned in 2022 as an example, in the past few years, because of the impact of imported goods from China on the domestic industry in the United States, the United States did not consider strengthening its own competitiveness, but chose to impose tariffs on China, hoping to raise the quality of Chinese goods in the United States and "protect" the local industry through policies. Gradually, however, as the US has become more aggressive in its attitude toward China, the tariffs have been added to political considerations in addition to economic considerations.
That's my opinion.
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It is likely that their daily life will be affected, such as having to save money to spend, making their lives unreliable.
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It is difficult for ordinary residents to maintain prices that exceed the consumption level with their normal wages, resulting in their living in poverty.
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Since the U.S. economy ranks first in the world, accounting for more than 20% of the global economy, and the U.S. dollar occupies an important position as a global currency, the Federal Reserve has effectively become a ** bank. Under the trend of economic globalization, the Fed's interest rate hike will inevitably have a significant impact on the global economy. In fact, the Fed raised interest rates in response to high domestic inflation that could create financial risks in many countries, leading to a global recession.
Despite the fact that the Fed is the "world's best bank", the decision to raise interest rates is driven by the US "priority". Against the backdrop of a global recession, the Fed's decision to raise interest rates in one country inevitably supports the U.S. economy at the expense of other countries. This year, the global economy faces some risks, as the pandemic remains under control and energy ** due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict**.
The Fed's tightening of monetary policy has put pressure on the global economy, which will have an indirect impact not only on the currencies of emerging markets and developing countries in some developing countries, but also in some advanced economies. AFP noted that another rate hike by the Fed could further exacerbate the risk of capital flight and reduce the risk of capital flight in the currencies of these regions.
The United States has a large population, a large land area, and relatively rich resources, and population is an important factor in supporting upward development, because in the last century, when the world's population reached 100 million US dollars, no country in the world has such a population base, except for China. However, the difference between China and the United States at that time, you don't need to consider the United States at that time, the variety of rich resources is very important, and many resource reserves at that time were considered to be an extremely rich resource in the United States, many of which were leading in the world.
It is worth noting that, in addition to these material advantages, the United States has another important point that it has a relatively strong geopolitical advantage, which is related to geographical ties. It is no secret that the neighbors of the United States do not pose a threat, since they are colonies, and although these colonies later declared independence, the United States formed a dominant position.
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When it comes to the issue of recession, the question concerns inflation first and foremost, but also the lattice of various commodities.
At the same time, due to the relatively weak pace of economic development in the United States, this means that the income level of many people will not rise sharply due to inflation, but the quality of life of many people will be negatively affected by inflation. <>
This problem is also related to the industrial structure of the United States itself. The U.S. economy is in recession, and the world has to buffer it. This is definitely not alarmist.
The impact of the U.S. recession on the world is enormous. After all, the United States has always been the number one country in global transactions. Once the economy recessions or worsens, high inflation will follow, which will directly damage the global ** chain.
The U.S. is the main currency for settling transactions, and there is a risk of spillovers in U.S. financial policy and currency. Once the dollar system collapses, the stability of the global economy and international** will be greatly reduced, the global unemployment rate will rise, and ** will collapse. <>
As a superpower, the United States has a considerable economic aggregate. In the event of a recession, the U.S. industrial chain will stagnate. As a consequence of inflation, domestic unemployment is rising and the investment market is depressed.
Subsequently, the monetary policy of the advanced economies of the United States will begin to tighten, the economy will be affected to a certain extent, and the global financial trend will become unstable. Currently, the United States is already in the midst of high inflation. The Fed's proposed response does not seem to have brought inflation in the United States below 2%.
On the contrary, accommodative monetary policy has accelerated the pace of recession. <>
For the U.S. economy, since many industries in the U.S. have hollowed out industries, although the U.S. has been pushing further for the return of manufacturing, the return of manufacturing itself takes a certain amount of time and cycle, so the U.S. cannot do this in a short period of time. It is for this reason that the industrial structure of many industries in the United States may lead to a further decline in people's income levels, and people's living conditions will become more difficult.
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How much will the continued recession in the United States affect the United States due to a variety of factors?
The United States fell into a mud pit, and Saudi Arabia stabbed the United States with OPEC+, and these major factors deeply trapped the United States. To get out of the quagmire and get out of the trap, the United States needs to completely abandon the anti-globalization mentality. The United States has fallen into the quagmire of the economic cycle and is crawling with twists and turns, and the United States is completely trapped by several major factors: economic recession, high inflation, high oil prices, continued turmoil in financial markets, and lingering geopolitical influences!
It was concerns about these factors that led to the fourth consecutive session of losses in the United States**. After the Dow fell below the key level of 30,000 points, it continued to decline, and there is a strong trend of breaking through 29,000 points. The Nasdaq hit a new low this year, most of the technology** value fell by one-third, and Chinese concept stocks were cut in half.
The U.S. earnings season is here. The market is expected to be the worst earnings disclosure period, putting pressure on U.S. stocks**. With rising costs, rising interest rates squeezing demand, and a stronger dollar cutting into overseas revenues, investors will rely on earnings reports to judge any clues about business operations.
Of course, investors are most worried that after Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ stabbed the United States, the sharp rise in international oil prices has made U.S. inflation remain at a historically high level, and the Federal Reserve will no longer hesitate to raise interest rates aggressively, and if the interest rate is raised by another 125 basis points at the end of the year, then market liquidity will be cut in half, and U.S. stocks and even the world will be deeply explored.
There are two points that need to be emphasized: First, the United States must abandon the thinking of the global boss and the international police as soon as possible, abandon the practice of anti-globalization and self-isolation, abandon the manipulation of gangs and cliques, deal with other countries with a modest attitude that is easy to discuss and have something to say, and return to the big global family and melting pot as soon as possible, including developed, emerging and underdeveloped countries. Second, in the Federal Reserve entering the interest rate hike channel and monetary tightening cycle, the overall global risk is greater than the opportunity, the global stock and bond foreign exchange market is very volatile, and investors should put risk prevention in the first place!
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