The process by which the U.S. real estate crisis evolved into a global economic crisis

1: Housing prices** (irrational growth) will form the expansion of the real estate bubble economy. It means that human reasons make housing prices crazy**.

The United States is also using real estate economic development to drive economic development, but this economic development depends on the continuous rise in housing prices, as long as housing prices rise, there will be no problems. But it is impossible for the house price to be ** all the time, so the problem is bound to arise. First, due to housing prices**, real estate developers seek financing from financial institutions or financial institutions get involved in real estate.

2.Due to the fact that the house price ** more buyers and a large number of loans from financial institutions, so as long as there is a little money, he can make a down payment and then borrow from the economic institution, because of the housing price**, the economic institution and the buyer do not worry, even if the lender does not pay the money, the house is sold and made money. When the development of the bubble economy reached the end of the housing price plummeted, first of all, the real estate developer lost money, the house could not be sold, the capital and economy were interrupted, and the real estate industry-related industries brought a crisis.

In addition, the capital and capital of the economic and financial institutions cannot be withdrawn, and the collapse of the economic and financial institutions affects the lives of the whole people, which leads to the crisis in the United States and the global crisis.

Real estate: During a recession, the real estate market usually takes a hit because people can't afford home prices. When the real estate market is corrected, the number of house sales declines, the scale of investment decreases, housing prices**, and various real estate and construction development projects are abandoned.

2.Finance: During a recession, banks and financial institutions may be exposed to risks, due to poor economic conditions, people's demand for borrowing declines, and users continue to grow, so that the profit of banks is greatly affected.

3.Retail: During a recession, most people's purchasing power decreases and consumer spending decreases, which can have a significant impact on the retail industry.

The average consumer has been one of the key drivers of U.S. economic growth for decades. Their declining purchasing power means that the retail industry will have to reduce inventory and lower** in order to attract consumers.

4.Manufacturing: During the recession, manufacturing and industrial production were hit hard as people reduced demand for groceries and other goods. This has led to factory shutdowns and layoffs, which have had an impact on the livelihoods of manufacturing employees.

5.Service industry: During a recession, people often cut back on unnecessary spending, such as services such as travel and dining. This will have an impact on the service industry, leading to a decline in business and staff layoffs.

6. The biggest impact of the recession is employment, with companies laying off a large number of employees and hiring very few new employees.

7. The real estate market is weak, ****, the reason is that everyone has no money.

8. Consumption is weak, and during the recession, going out to travel, eat and enjoy services will be reduced.

9. Interest rates will also generally fall because there is less need for people to borrow money.

10。Many businesses, including small and medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises, have the potential for banks to go bankrupt.

11. A good thing during the recession is the massive increase in startups. A lot of people have been forced to start their own businesses, and some of the best businesses have been created during the recession.

Summary. 1) The macro causes of the U.S. housing bubble include: Excessive monetary easing

Between 2003 and 2005, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to low levels, prompting a large amount of money to flow into the housing market, resulting in house prices**. Excessive credit lending: Banks and financial institutions are issuing large numbers of low-interest loans, including "subprime mortgages" and ninja loans, which have made many people eligible to buy homes, leading to home prices**.

Excessive real estate development: With the real estate market in full swing, developers are building new homes in large numbers, resulting in oversupply and falling house prices.

3) What characteristics of the U.S. housing bubble do you embody? (6 points) 1) What are the macro causes of the U.S. housing bubble? (6 points) 2) What are the individual psychological and behavioral biases reflected in the U.S. real estate bubble?

8 points) 1) What are the macro causes of the U.S. housing bubble? (6 points) 3) What characteristics of the U.S. housing bubble do you represent? (6 points) 2) What are the individual psychological and behavioral biases reflected in the U.S. real estate bubble?

8 points) 1) What are the macro causes of the U.S. housing bubble? (6 points) 3) What characteristics of the U.S. housing bubble do you represent? (6 points) 2) What are the individual psychological and behavioral biases reflected in the U.S. real estate bubble?

8 points) 1) What are the macro causes of the U.S. housing bubble? (6 points) 3) What characteristics of the U.S. housing bubble do you represent? (6 points) 2) What are the individual psychological and behavioral biases reflected in the U.S. real estate bubble?

8 points) 1) What are the macro causes of the U.S. housing bubble? (6 points).

Let me give you a simple example.

After the bursting of the U.S. asset bubble, the U.S. will inevitably print dollars in order to save the market. Then the dollar depreciated. However, there are still a large number of unsettled bills for China's foreign trade with the United States.

But the number of bills is still the same as it was before the financial crisis. That is, the United States previously owed $10 in debt. But now $10 is no longer worth $10.

It's only worth $5 anymore. So paying you back $10 now is only $5. There are also a large number of bills that foreign trade enterprises cannot collect.

Because the financial crisis has led to the collapse of a large number of companies in the United States. So it affects China and causes a chain reaction. China's foreign trade companies can't get back because of a large number of bills.

As a result, the company's capital turnover is not effective. I also had to take out a bank loan to turn around.

Because of the large amount of borrowing, the bank's cash flow is not effective. So China has to print money in order to save the lives of companies. In the end, it led to the depreciation of China's money. Therefore, in the era of globalization, a crisis that has been fought is a global crisis, because it will cause a chain reaction.

And then everything else is the same, because the investment is all global now, and there are Chinese companies listed in the United States, and there are American companies listed in China. The economy has become one, and then as soon as the economic bubble crosses, it forms a chain reaction, which leads to the rapid flight of hot money, which accelerates the collapse of the economy even more. You have to know that the top of the bubble is supported by hot money, and when the hot money runs, it is no different from an avalanche.

This China can too. Immediately you will see a butterfly effect of every move of an influential power in the context of globalization (capital, labor, technology, information). Not much nonsense, natural and easy to understand.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2020, the national real estate development investment was 141443 billion yuan, an increase over the previous year, and the growth rate fell by one percentage point compared with the previous year. Among them, residential investment was 104446 billion yuan, an increase, and the growth rate fell by one percentage point compared with the previous year. In the case of negative growth of the world's economy affected by the new crown epidemic, China's real estate still maintains positive growth, and the growth rate is much higher than the GDP growth rate, which shows that China's real estate market is still in a situation of steady growth.

In recent years, there has been a voice that China's real estate market has begun to diverge and the trend is obvious. So what is the reason for this divergence?

1. Real estate is affected by supply and demand.

The so-called market is affected by supply and demand. Real estate is a regional market, and it is closely related to local demand and demand. There is a big gap in China's urban development, especially in large cities, and China's urban development policy is to lead the economic development of the entire region with central cities.

Therefore, the development gap between cities, the inflow and outflow of talents, the development of industries, etc., are all factors that lead to the differentiation of real estate. The differentiation of the market will eventually lead to the differentiation of products, so the impact of urban supply and demand will inevitably lead to the differentiation of the real estate market.

2. Differentiation of income disparities.

The rate of wealth growth between first-, second- and third-tier cities will vary significantly depending on population and industry. The per capita income will also vary with the development of the city, and the growth rate of wealth will also vary greatly between people because of the allocation of different types of assets. People with high incomes and good credit are more likely to get bank loans, and getting bank loans means that they have more money to use, and these people must use these funds to invest and seek value preservation and appreciation, and the luxury housing and improved housing market is their first choice.

Therefore, in the residential field that they are vying to buy, due to the limited stock of housing, the result of the continuous influx of funds is to push the ** grid. This eventually led to the emergence of luxury homes and improved homes, and the differentiation from ordinary homes became more and more wide.

This is because the real estate industry is very profitable, and the market in each country is different, so there is a phenomenon of real estate market differentiation.

The main reason for the divergence of the global real estate market is that local customs, like those in the United States, have always been very good, so there is a need for bigger houses, and many people in China do not have houses to live in.

If the real estate problem is not solved, what will be the impact? Expert: The US financial crisis.

The impact is huge. The original financial crisis was formed by the subprime loan crisis in the United States, which was a subprime loan for housing loans. The financial crisis has caused a decrease in residents' income and consumption, which has affected real estate sales and forced them to reduce prices.

The financial crisis may reduce bank loans to real estate developers, resulting in problems in the capital chain of real estate companies, and the price of real estate will be reduced in order to collect funds as soon as possible.

The likelihood of collapse is low, because China's population size determines the rigid demand for real estate in China.

Now ** has begun to regulate real estate, so that he can embark on a virtuous path.

The real starting point of the bubble is that no one buys the house, and there is no market for it.

In China, it is estimated that this stage has not yet been reached.

Now China's stability is not the problem of the bursting of the bubble, but the number of people who live without houses in China is relatively large, which is the biggest dissatisfaction of the people with the highest dissatisfaction with the world, China's social instability is certainly not caused by the bursting of the property bubble, but by this group of people who do not live in houses.

The developer is actually just a substitute for the ghost, the developer is blocking the gun for the first time, the price of the house is partly because of the increase in demand, partly because of the speculators, the vast majority of it is because the ** tax encroaches on the developer's profits, this is the fundamental reason for the price increase, the more the house rises, the higher the tax will be adjusted, the higher the higher the rise, the more the increase is the root of the vicious circle.

The easiest way to solve China's high housing prices is very simple: commercial housing is built by **, the materials are open and clear, the housing prices are transparent, and the housing prices are slightly adjusted by different locations, so that the housing prices are very fair.

However, the biggest weakness of this method is that this society will not be really fair (if there is really fairness, then we are a communist society), and the people will never feel that this house price is cheap (unless he can buy a house with a monthly salary), and the aggravation of such contradictions will directly affect the safety of ** and collapse faster.

To sum up: the developer is just the first code Zhifeng for the dead ghost, and the developer can't be let die, and if he dies, no one will bear the responsibility for the first.

The ability to collapse is very low, because China's population determines the rigid demand for real estate in China.

Now ** has begun to regulate real estate, so that he can embark on a virtuous path.

The real starting point of the bubble is that no one buys the house, and there is no market for it.

In China, it is estimated that this stage has not yet been reached.

Now China's stability is not the problem of the bursting of the bubble, but the number of people living without houses in China is relatively large, this is the biggest dissatisfaction of the people now, China's social instability is certainly not caused by the bursting of the property market bubble, but caused by this group of people who do not live in houses.

The developer is actually just a substitute for the ghost, the developer is blocking the gun for the first time, the price of the house is partly because of the increase in demand, partly because of the speculators, the vast majority of it is because the ** tax encroaches on the developer's profits, this is the fundamental reason for the price increase, the more the house rises, the higher the tax will be adjusted, the higher the higher the rise, the more the increase is the root of the vicious circle.

The easiest way to solve China's high housing prices is very simple: commercial housing is built by **, the materials are open and clear, the housing price chain is transparent, and the housing prices are slightly adjusted by different locations, so that the housing prices are very fair.

However, the biggest weakness of this method is that this society will not be truly fair (if there is really fairness, then we are a communist society), and the people will never feel that this house price is cheap (unless he can buy a house with a monthly salary), and the aggravation of such contradictions will directly affect the safety of ** and collapse faster.

The chances of house prices collapsing within three years are quite small.